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S&P 500

WKN: A0AET0 / ISIN: US78378X1072

Zuviel Optimismus an den US Börsen?

eröffnet am: 19.11.06 14:10 von: biomuell
neuester Beitrag: 25.04.21 10:39 von: Janinagnmsa
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19.11.06 14:10 #1  biomuell
Zuviel Optimismus an den US Börsen? First quarter (Jan-March­) 2006:  + 5.6%
Second quarter 2006: + 2.6%
Third quarter: + 1.6%

WHAT WOULD YOU EXPECT for the 4th quarter??
The estimates for the 4th quarter are 0.7%- 1%
And what would you ecpect for the first quarter 2007..?

- These figure reflect the the US economy growth (GDP groth) and they show how urgently the US economy need to lower its intersts. Another important factor that requires a soon decrease of the US interests is the immobila market - downgoing home sales which fell by 14.2%  (Sept­ 2005-Sept 2006) = sharpest decline in residentia­l investment­ since 1991. In October the decline was 17 %!

- The inflation data (-1,6 in Oct following -1,2 in Sept) indicate a lowering of the interests rate in US seems appropriat­e and feasible.

- same for the oil price (which has further decreased last week and which can even further decline the next weeks)

Considerin­g all these major factors (US economy growth down, housing down, inflation & oil price down) - a (maybe even sooner than expected) decrease of US interests will come. It will be quite interested­ how the USD can stand against the €….
(EU economy grows currently +2,5%)

Decreasing­ inflation & interests have a depressive­ impact on gold
2 issues why gold could rise:
- impactof downgoing housing market could hamper US consumer confidence­.
Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP and direct residentia­l investment­ accounts for another 5% to 6%!!!
The decrease of the US GDP is shown above - and decreasing­ - the INTEREST must (will) go down soon if the US want to avoid recession.­

Wird spannend - ob es die US schafft, eine Rezession zu vermeiden - im Markt (Börsen) ist jedenfalls­ viel Optimismus­ !!
 

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