MOMO, die Story ?
| eröffnet am: | 22.05.15 00:22 von: | opkst |
| neuester Beitrag: | 23.12.24 00:11 von: | moneywork4me |
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Vorab: ein Artikel vom 12.12.2014 in CURVED:
Eine der großen App-Erfolgsgeschichten der westlichen Welt verblasst wieder einmal beim Vergleich mit Fernost: Während der Aufstieg der Dating-App Tinder dies- und jenseits des Atlantiks bejubelt wird, ist Momo in China schon viel weiter. Das drei Jahre alte Unternehmen, in das Alibaba investiert hat, debütierte an der Wall Street mit einer Bewertung von mehr als drei Milliarden Dollar!
Zehn Millionen Nutzer weltweit können nicht irren: Tinder ist fraglos eine der ganz großen Erfolgsstorys des Internet-Jahres 2014, in dem sich Menschen eben immer öfter mit einem Wisch auf dem Smartphone kennenlernen. Wie ansteckend das Tinder-Fieber tatsächlich bereits ist (wir haben es im Sommer in einem Selbstversuch getestet), dokumentiert die Verweildauer auf der Kuppel-App: Enorme 90 Minuten verbringen die User durchschnittlich am Tag in der App, in die sie sich 11 mal einloggen!
Entsprechend groß sind die Begehrlichkeiten der Investoren: Die Internet-Beteiligungsgesellschaft IAC bezahlte im April geschätzte 55 Millionen Dollar für einen 11 Prozent-Anteil an der Dating-App, was die Bewertung dementsprechend auf 500 Millionen Dollar schießen ließ. Glaubt man den Investmentbankern von Barclays, dürfte Tinder in einem Jahr schon doppelt so viel wert sein die weltweite Nutzerschaft sieht die britische Investmentbank schon im April nächsten Jahres auf 20 Millionen explodieren.
Kurssprung von 26 Prozent am ersten Handelstag
Wie klein Tinder bei all dem Hype in der globalen Nutzung am Ende aber doch ist, macht ein Vergleich mit der Nummer eins Chinas deutlich: Momo, das ebenfalls klassische Social Network- Elemente wie ein ausführlicheres Profil und Instant Messaging-Möglichkeiten vereint (Marketwatch: SnapChat meets Match.com meets Facebook), bringt es bereits auf 180 Millionen registrierte Mitglieder, von denen immerhin 60 Millionen die App aktiv nutzen.
Entsprechend groß war der Run auf Momo, das am Donnerstag an der Wall Street unter dem gleichnamigen Tickersymbol debütierte. Und das höchst erfolgreich: Vom Ausgabekurs bei 13,50 Dollar zog die Aktie am ersten Handelstag bis auf 17 Dollar ab und konnte damit ein sattes Kursplus von 26 Prozent am ersten Handelstag verbuchen.
Alibaba-Investment macht Momo interessant
Momo konnte durch das IPO 216 Millionen Dollar erlösen und aus den Stand auf eine erstaunliche Bewertung von über 3 Milliarden Dollar springen! Der eigentliche Grund des Anlegerinteresses dürfte indes weniger in der Geschäftsentwicklung der Halbjahresumsatz kam gerade mal auf 14 Millionen Dollar bei Nettoverlusten von knapp 49 Millionen Dollar als vielmehr im Zukunftspotenzial liegen.
Das größte Plus der Dating-App: Die 20-Prozent-Beteiligung des chinesischen E-Commerce-Champions Alibaba, der bislang über kein Social Network verfügt. Firmenpatriarch Jack Ma kündigte bereits an, seinen Anteil aufstocken zu wollen. Analystin Ella Ji bescheinigt Momo eine vielversprechende Zukunft: Es hat das Potenzial, nicht nur als Dating-, sondern auch als Social- bzw. Location-App wahrgenommen zu werden, erklärt die Oppenheimer-Analystin gegenüber Bloomberg.
Aktuell: 18.05.2015
First Quarter 2015 Highlights
Net revenues increased 383% year over year to $26.3 million, exceeding the Company's guidance between $24 million and $26 million.
Net income attributable to Momo Inc. was $6.7 million, compared to a net loss of $1.2 million for the same period last year.
Non-GAAP net income attributable to Momo Inc. (note 1) was $9.4 million compared to a non-GAAP net loss of $0.3 million for the same period last year.
Diluted net income per American Depositary Share ("ADS") was $0.03, compared to a diluted net loss per ADS of $0.08 for the same period last year.
Non-GAAP diluted net income per ADS (note 1) was $0.05, compared to a non-GAAP diluted net loss per ADS of $0.06 for the same period last year.
Monthly Active Users ("MAU")1 were 78.1 million in March 2015, an increase of 83% year over year.
"The first quarter of 2015 has been a fruitful quarter and a solid start to the year ahead of us. We continued to deliver strong topline growth and achieved profitability for the first time in our operating history." Said Yan Tang, Chairman and CEO of Momo, "On the operational front, we stayed focused on executing in our key strategic areas. The size of our platform continued to expand and we are seeing our users engaging with the platform in an increasingly diversified way. With the launch of Momo 6.0 in April, we are taking a significant step forward toward our long term mission of enabling every Momo user to discover and connect to interesting people around them."
nach 6 Monaten schon $ 0,03 pro Aktie im plus
. und schon macht es plopp !!! :-)
Die Chinesen sind viel, aber einsam hat mal jemand zu mir gesagt, werde ich nie vergessen.
Eure Meinungen ? - Langfrist ?
Net revenues increased 383% year over year to $26.3 million, exceeding the Company's guidance between $24 million and $26 million.
Net income attributable to Momo Inc. was $6.7 million, compared to a net loss of $1.2 million for the same period last year.
Non-GAAP net income attributable to Momo Inc. (note 1) was $9.4 million compared to a non-GAAP net loss of $0.3 million for the same period last year.
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/...cial-results-for-the-first-quarter-2015
14.04.2015.....Momo coming under fire from puritanical Beijing regulators for its more casual form of dating, which encourages short-term, one-night-stand relationships, similar to the popular US service called…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...-resistance-from-beijing-investors
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Momo (MOMO) were gaining 11.5% to $18.14 on heavy trading volume Wednesday, continuing the Chinese mobile social networking company's gains from Tuesday following its first quarter earnings report.
About 2.2 million shares of Momo were traded by 10:47 a.m. Wednesday, above the company's average trading volume of about 634,000 shares a day. On Monday afternoon Momo reported earnings of 3 cents a share for the first quarter, up from a loss of 8 cents a share in the year-ago quarter. The company reported revenue of $26.32 million for the first quarter, a 383% increase from the year-ago quarter.
Analyst estimates were not available for the company.
Momo said it had 78.1 million monthly active users in March 2015, an 83% increase from March 2014.
The company expects to report revenue of $31 million to $33 million for the second quarter, representing a year over year increase of 267% to 291%.
Ich tippe trotz einiger kritischen Berichte auf zunehmende Memperships und weiteren Innovationen innerhalb des Netzes.
Der Absacker auf ca. 11$ nach Start war jedenfalls nicht gerechtfertigt, die gute Zahlen haben das belegt.
Summary
Cultural backdrop is a significant catalyst for Momo.
New streams of revenue has boosted growth tremendously.
Membership subscription fees are slowing due to lower conversion rates.
Will mobile marketing and games grow fast enough to compensate for slowing growth in membership fees?
Given the lack of an earnings history, Momo's valuation is largely subjective.
Momo, Inc. (NASDAQ:MOMO) is essentially an online matchmaking service in China - think of them as the Tinder of China, a social networking app operating along similar core principles. Capitalizing on the unique cultural and demographic context in China, MOMO has grown tremendously since it began operating in 2011, turning a profit after less than two years since they began the monetization process.
Background & Overview
MOMO's main source of revenue is derived from membership subscription fees and revenue-sharing with mobile game developers on their platform. MOMO sells memberships that allow members to have additional functions and privileges such as advanced search options, VIP logos, a higher limit of user interactions and the ability to add additional features on their profile.
Momo operates in a unique cultural context that differentiates their prospects from other matchmaking sites/apps in the Western world. In China, there is great parental pressure for young people to find a spouse early and get married, particularly for young men as they are expected to carry on the family lineage.
Being a product of the one-child policy myself, I understand how beneficial the cultural context is for a businesses like Momo. In the past century, there was a heavy preference for sons instead of daughters. In agricultural China, males were seen as more physically able to work and would also carry on the family name. Combine that with China's One-Child policy and you have a host of horrible acts like female infanticide and child trafficking, where many families would sell their female babies to foreigners or simply abandon them at orphanages.
Due to these practices (and they still exist in rural areas today), there is a humongous gender imbalance in China's population demographics, with men outnumbering women by over 50 million. The trend has spurred the growth of the matchmaking industry, and MOMO is well positioned to take advantage of this demographic trend. Even today, China is still producing 117.6 boys for every 100 girls, indicating the trend will not ease up soon.
The large numbers of men unable to find wives and pressure from elders to get married and start a family has enabled MOMO to grow its user base and revenues at a rapid, accelerating rate.
Revenues are derived mainly from membership fees and revenue-sharing from mobile games with developers. For 5 months in 2013, MOMO generated $3.13M in Revenues, and this number grew to $44.76M for FY2014.
Although MOMO recorded before-tax losses of ($12.49M) and ($70.92M) for 2013 and 2014 respectively, they turned a profit in the first quarter of 2014, which is impressive given they've only begun monetization for less than two years, and are still investing to grow at a rapid rate.
User Growth
Since inception, MOMO has experienced explosive user growth in terms of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and paying members.Since 2013Q1, MAUs and the number of members (paying users) have been growing at a CAGR of 25% and 47% respectively. This explosive growth in their user base has been the main driver of revenue growth. However, there are concerns that the monetization of MOMO's user base may be slowing.
...Whilst MOMO had been able to convert its users into paying members at an increasing rate, this trend seems to have flattened over the past two quarters, possibly indicating that a saturation normal is reached, which may be around 4%.
..At the current price and a forecasted FY2015 EPS of $0.18, MOMO trades at a forward P/E of over 100. In cases like these where a fast-growing tech company has just begun monetization, valuation often becomes a more qualitative and subjective process due to the lack of an established history of earnings growth.
The choice to buy or not would depend on your answer to the following questions:
Will MOMO's growth in mobile marketing and games be fast enough to compensate for declining growth in membership fees?
Will management be able to find ways of monetization to enhance growth rates to meet expectations?
Are earnings expectations set too high when the market expects MOMO to increase EPS by 3.2x from 2015 to 2016?
Personally, I believe these expectations have been priced in fully after the positive Q1 results and subsequent rally, such that the margin of safety (if any) is slim. Furthermore, without a deeper understanding of how management plans to continue growing revenue, the probability of an earnings disappointment seems high given the expectation of EPS increasing by 3.2x from 2015 to 2016. Thus, MOMO is a great business at a not-so-great price.
....
Momo is experiencing rapid revenue growth in the last couple of quarters. Revenue increased from just $2.3 million in Q4 2013 to $18.5 million and $26.3 million in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 respectively. The company guided Q2 revenue growth in the $31 million to $33 million range, representing a sequential increase of 18% to 25%. The expansion of monetization capabilities to other areas is perhaps the most interesting aspect to potential investors. The company has relied mostly on membership revenues in the last couple of quarters, which accounted for 73% of total revenues in Q3 2014, but due to the rising revenues from mobile games and mobile marketing, the contribution of membership revenues to total revenue in Q1 2015 fell to 49.4% and given the rapid rise of the other two segments and the introduction of other services will likely lead to even lower contribution in the following quarters, which will enable the company to monetize the whole user base instead of just those that are willing to pay the membership fee.
The gaming segment revenues have grown substantially in the last couple of quarters and the company had 6.2 million active game players at the end of Q1 and has launched eight new titles during the quarter. The company has diversified its game portfolio with the launch of role-playing games, strategy card games, casual games and shooting games. This has resulted in less dependence on Momo Craft, which contributed to the majority of gross billings in 2014, while the top five games in Q1 accounted for 57% of gross billings with no single game above 15% of the total. In-house game development is another area the company is focusing on and Momo launched the first in-house developed game, a casual puzzle game called Momo Xiong Xiong Xiao. The performance of the game is encouraging as it was ranked number 2 in iOS top game downloads shortly after the launch in February and the revenues from the game exceeded the company's internal forecasts. I think that Momo has a good chance for solid success with games due to the leverage potential of its social platform and the company can use the enormous amounts of user data to develop games. And if we look at the growth of mobile games at other gaming companies from China, like iDreamSky (NASDAQ:DSKY), China Mobile Games (NASDAQ:CMGE) and most recently NetEase and the size and overall growth of the mobile games market (see chart below) we can get a solid idea of how big Momo's mobile game growth can be going forward. A strong user base and engagement are very important factors for success in mobile games, and Momo has both. MAUs in March reached 78.1 million, representing a 183% Y/Y increase and the average time spent per day on its platform remains above 30 minutes. The rising user base and a significant amount of time spent on its platform represent large monetization opportunities for Momo's gaming segment, but content is also a factor here, and the company needs high-quality games in order to ramp up the monetization efforts going forward.
However, I see more potential in the mobile marketing segment. The company has two large partners which should lead to a substantial increase in monetization in the following quarters and the addressable market should be double the size of the mobile gaming market by 2017 (see chart below). Alibaba had a 20% stake before the company went public and purchased another $50 million worth of shares in the IPO, while 58.com bought a $10 million stake in the IPO. The cooperation with the two companies has already resulted in significant revenue contribution from the mobile marketing segment, which brought in $6 million in revenues in Q1 2015 compared to just $29,000 in the same quarter last year.....Going forward, the three companies intend to develop deeper relationships in more strategic areas. More data integration, add formats and exploring opportunities for combining Momo's social platform with small businesses on mobile are the most important areas of focus with Alibaba, while Momo and 58.com are exploring the significant opportunities in the O2O areas. ... I expect the fastest growth from the mobile marketing area and expect it to become the largest revenue contributor for Momo by early 2016.
Momo surprised investors with a Q1 non-GAAP net margin of 35.9%. The margin shows the inherent leverage in the company's business model, but we should not expect margins to stay high in the following quarters. ....
Momo represents another interesting growth story from China and the company seems to be doing the right things given the substantial revenue growth in the last couple of quarters and the diversification of its revenue streams. The historical examples show that Momo's share price could rise 60% to 120% higher in the next 12 to 18 months, but I prefer YY at the moment for the reasons stated above and for the reasons stated in my previous articles. I would wait for a better buying opportunity in the following weeks and the IPO price of $13.50 seems like an attractive entry, as it brings the forward 2015 P/S ratio below 15 and will bring Momo's forward 2015 P/S ratio below 58.com's and close to Qunar's while it should then trade at a significant discount on a 2016 P/S ratio…
http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2015/06/23/...ate-Proposal.html
erstaunlich wie das um sich greift, die wollen lieber an die chinesische Börse ,wo sie sehr viel besser da stehen
Aktuell habe ich das Gefühl dass noch was geht. So bis 26, danach entweder ein Taucher oder weiter himmelswärts.
"Phänomene", bis das Delisiting kam. Aber wir wollen ja mal nicht Schwarz malen. Und Hanergy ist gerade am "Wiederauferstehen". Bin da guter Hoffnung, dass es wieder weiter gehen wird.
Wo bist Du sonst noch investiert? Bei mir wars Tesla (wie mein Name gier durch die Blume verrät), dort ist jedoch nur noch ein kleiner Teil drin der rausfliegt wenn die Aktie sich der 200 nähert. Apropo Tesla, kam gerade per Ticker die News von der explodierten Space-X Rakete rein...
Ein grösserer Posten bei mir ist Alibaba die jetzt langsam aber sicher wieder die 100 in Angriff nimmt.
Wäre doch ein schönes Geschenk für das Wochenende. Ein schönes Weekend wünsche ich dir so oder so!