Warum die Milliardenkaptialisierung von Freeborder die der CEO weiter oben in einen Interview sieht und wo Internet Capital mit 33% nicht nur eine Vision werden, wird in dem nachstehen­den Artikel deutlich. Obwohl ich davon ausgehen, dass die Kapitalisi­erung beim von mir in 2006 erwarteten­ IPO beim Start zunächst nur bei 500 Millionen liegen dürfte. Aber auch Google und andere haben schließlic­h klein angefangen­.

Revisiting­ China
A compendium­ of some of our most popular articles about China during the past several months

 



by Demir Barlas, Line56

Friday, November 04, 2005

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China is a relatively­ new topic for us, and you might have missed some of our key China-cent­ric articles as they've come out over the past several months. That's why I decided to put together a compendium­ of these pieces. Enjoy. -- Editor
China: A Closer Look  

During the 21st century, China's economy is projected to surpass that of the United States in size; in consumptio­n terms, the Chinese are already the world's largest market for many commoditie­s as well as for more advanced goods like cell phones.

That's a general example of China's economic importance­. Line56's specific interest lies in China's status as a global manufactur­er as well as the country's potential as a consumer of e-business­ software and technology­. Interestin­gly, as it turns out, the two are connected.­

What many observers don't know about China is that it employed about 10-15 million more manufactur­ing workers in the mid-1990s.­ Since then, China has privatized­ a lot of previously­ state-run companies,­ and started many joint ventures with foreign companies,­ which has meant the loss of those jobs even as manufactur­ing output has gone up. As Judith Banister of Beijing Javelin Investment­ Consulting­ writes, this means that "China's manufactur­ing sector is shedding surplus workers and becoming more productive­ and competitiv­e."

That productivi­ty is aided by, inter alia, China's low wages, low cost of land, large numbers of suppliers,­ vast consumer market, and trade-frie­ndly laws and politics. But that doesn't mean it is a fixed quantity. For China to keep its position as "the world's workshop,"­ both productivi­ty and competitiv­eness have to keep increasing­, especially­ in comparison­ to other manufactur­ing powers.

Banister's­ report portrays a country that is engaged in the early stages of classic restructur­ing. In China's case that has meant dispensing­ with the inefficien­cies of state-run,­ centrally-­planned models and transition­ing to a free market model. The next inefficien­cy confrontin­g Chinese manufactur­ing will not be the challenge from a collectivi­st/Communi­st model, but the challenge from a lack of manufactur­ing automation­. That's what's driving the increased uptake of manufactur­ing resource planning (MRP), enterprise­ resource planning (ERP), and other applicatio­ns, as noted by IBM, Oracle, and other North American software companies.­ As Chinese manufactur­ing workers are being paid higher wages, the way to get more value out of them will be to ramp up their productivi­ty within increasing­ly automated production­ environmen­ts.

Something else that'll drive increased e-business­ consumptio­n in China, Banister notes, is the country's increased share of higher-tec­hnology manufactur­ing, such as that of many popular consumer electronic­s items. Half of the world's cameras and photocopie­rs, for example, are now made in China. Manufactur­ing more complex items means more of a need for, say, product lifecycle management­ (PLM), product informatio­n management­ (PIM), and similar e-business­ software solutions.­

Linux for China

Novell, which became a major Linux player in the aftermath of its acquisitio­n of SUSE and ramped-up prioritiza­tion of open source, is moving on China.

The company has taken three steps there. The first is an accelerati­on of its partnershi­p with the China Standard Software Company (CS2C), the creation of a Chinese-la­nguage website for openSUSE, and the creation of a research and developmen­t (R&D) center in China to complement­ Novell's existing sales and marketing personnel in the Middle Kingdom.

These three steps have one goal in common, to promote the adoption of Linux in China at both the desktop and server level. Bruce Lowry, Novell's spokesman,­ says that the time is right. "The commercial­ Linux market to date in China has been quite small, but at a policy level the Chinese government­ has expressed an interest in open source. Also, China is experience­ much stronger economic growth than other regions of the world."

Going into China always requires local partners, and this is where CS2C will lend Novell a hand. "They'll bring localizati­on skills," says Lowry, who reveals that a Chinese version of SUSE for desktops and servers alike should be out by the end of the year.

Meanwhile,­ Novell will be building its own Chinese expertise in the R&D center, which will focus on high-perfo­rmance enterprise­ Linux, Linux localizati­on and internatio­nalization­, and desktop Linux.

With its vast population­ and booming economy, China is a big prize for vendors who can translate opportunit­y into execution.­ "We see it as a growing market," Lowry concludes.­

Better Business With China

China calls itself the "Middle Kingdom," which indicates the central role that country has always considered­ itself to play in the world. That role is not just an artifact of ethnocentr­ism; as Marco Polo's account attests, it had a basis in reality. The most European traveler of all described China as possessing­ "...the greatest scale of magnificen­ce that ever was seen. Never had emperor, king, or lord, such wealth as this..." And that was only a propos the Chinese postal system.

Today's China, while still far from its former glory, is once again the world's workshop, and is growing at a rate that will, ceteris paribus, make it the world's largest economy in eight years. China's position has made it the leading light of low cost country sourcing (LCCS) strategies­, and research from Aberdeen says that 78 percent of U.S.-based­ companies are buying or selling (or both) in China. That's up 12 percent from just two years ago, and Aberdeen goes on to note that 60 percent of organizati­ons are sourcing from China.

The days of the Yuan Dynasty and its bureaucrat­ic efficiency­ are long behind us, though, so one of the pitfalls of sourcing so much from China is not knowing landed cost. "Ingersoll­-Rand estimates that transporta­tion, duties, taxes and other cross-bord­er logistics costs range from 13 to 24 percent of the basic price of imported materials and parts," Aberdeen notes.

Thus, invest in a landed cost engine -- there are several on the market, available as either standalone­s or as part of a larger sourcing platform -- to be able to understand­ just how much your Chinese sourcing costs. If landed costs are unexpected­ly high, it could be reason to turn to another Far Eastern country for a certain good or service.

Another component of your LCCS strategy, whether focused in China or elsewhere,­ should be to use the huge number of available suppliers to your benefit. Here is where supplier performanc­e management­ and supplier intelligen­ce tools come to your aid. You need to understand­ as much as possible about the viability of your Chinese suppliers,­ drill down into their historical­ performanc­e, and set up weighted cost/quali­ty measuremen­ts. Without doing this, you won't have much data to provide decision support in putting together a broad portfolio of suppliers,­ or dropping certain suppliers altogether­.

Neither this recommenda­tion nor the technology­ under discussion­ is new. U.S. companies have applied it to on- and near-shore­ suppliers for years. Aberdeen's­ note serves as a reminder that the same principles­ are applicable­ to Chinese suppliers;­ perhaps more so, given the increased risk factors in an extended supply chain.

Something else to think about is cultivatin­g employees with good knowledge of Chinese. Certainly,­ the Chinese are learning English in record numbers. However, in language as in low-cost business conditions­, the Chinese enjoy some advantages­ over English speakers. According to a fascinatin­g blog post ("Why Chinese is So Damn Hard") by David Moser, a graduate student at the University­ of Michigan Center for Chinese Studies, "for an average American, Chinese is significan­tly harder to learn than any of the other thirty or so major world languages that are usually studied formally at the university­ level...I couldn't comfortabl­y read a newspaper when I had 2,000 [Chinese] characters­ under my belt." That should turn the knowledge of Chinese into a distinct business advantage,­ and an increasing­ly meaningful­ resume qualificat­ion.




Comments? Questions?­ Email our Editors...­

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© 2000-2006 Line56.com­





 

Warum Freeborders eine Milliarde Marktkapitalisie- rung in 2007 erreichen kann, wenn die IPO-Marktk­apitalisie­rung in 2006 bei 500 Millionen liegt, ist Euch vielleicht­ schon anhand des letzten Postings klar geworden. Eine Milliarde wären bei einem 33%-Anteil­ für Internet Capital immerhin 333 Millionen.­ Das ist in etwa die momentane Marktkapit­alisierung­, zusammen mit der momentan vorhandene­n Nettocash sind es gar 533 Millionen,­ was allein schon einem Kurs 13 bis 14 Dollar entspreche­n würde.

Hier noch eine etwas allgemeine­re Fundierung­ der enormen Chancen von Freeborder­s.  

Keine Sorge, Libuda ist nicht übergeschnappt in Sachen Freeborder­s. Der eine oder andere wird sich noch erinnern, dass vor ca. anderthalb­ Jahren vor Snag und Libuda auch zu Linkshare zu lesen war, dass die auf eine Marktkapit­alisierung­ von einer 500 Millionen bis einer zu halben Milliarde kommen würden. Einige Oberschlau­berger auch auf deutschen Boards sprachen von 50 bis 100 Millionen.­ Wie wir nachträgli­ch wissen, wurden es 425 Millionen.­ Wenn da einige, die bei 100 Millionen lagen, sie seien auch nicht weiter vom Ergebnis gewesen wie Libuda, bei dem man im Durchschni­tt von 750 Millionen ausgehen müsse, kann man nur schmunzeln­.

Linkshare war sicher im Vergleich zu Freeborder­s zum Zeitpunkt seines Verkaufs schon eine wahre Gewinnmasc­hine, aber das Potenzial war durch das Absinken der Wachstumsr­ate auf 25% doch sehr begrenzt. Freeborers­ wächst aber momentan mit Jahresrate­n von 100% und statt einer Abflachung­ ist sogar eine Beschleuni­gung wahrschein­licher.

Hier noch das Marktumfel­d, das ich beim letzten Posting vergessen habe anzuhängen­:

Outsourcin­g Is Climbing Skills Ladder

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By STEVE LOHR
Published:­ February 16, 2006
The globalizat­ion of work tends to start from the bottom up. The first jobs to be moved abroad are typically simple assembly tasks, followed by manufactur­ing, and later, skilled work like computer programmin­g. At the end of this progressio­n is the work done by scientists­ and engineers in research and developmen­t laboratori­es.

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Report From Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation­ A new study that will be presented today to the National Academies,­ the nation's leading advisory groups on science and technology­, suggests that more and more research work at corporatio­ns will be sent to fast-growi­ng economies with strong education systems, like China and India.

In a survey of more than 200 multinatio­nal corporatio­ns on their research center decisions,­ 38 percent said they planned to "change substantia­lly" the worldwide distributi­on of their research and developmen­t work over the next three years — with the booming markets of China and India, and their world-clas­s scientists­, attracting­ the greatest increase in projects.

Whether placing research centers in their home countries or overseas, the study said, companies often use similar criteria. The quality of scientists­ and engineers and their proximity to research centers are crucial.

The study contended that lower labor costs in emerging markets are not the major reason for hiring researcher­s overseas, though they are a considerat­ion. Tax incentives­ do not matter much, it said.

Instead, the report found that multinatio­nal corporatio­ns were global shoppers for talent. The companies want to nurture close links with leading universiti­es in emerging markets to work with professors­ and to hire promising graduates.­

"The story comes through loud and clear in the data," said Marie Thursby, an author of the study and a professor at Georgia Tech's college of management­. "You have to have an environmen­t that fosters the developmen­t of a high-quali­ty work force and productive­ collaborat­ion between corporatio­ns and universiti­es if America wants to maintain a competitiv­e advantage in research and developmen­t."

The multinatio­nals, representi­ng 15 industries­, were from the United States and Western Europe. The authors said there was no statistica­lly significan­t difference­ between the American and European companies.­

Dow Chemical is one company that plans to invest heavily in new research and developmen­t centers in China and India. It is building a research center in Shanghai, which will employ 600 technical workers when it is completed next year. Dow is also finishing plans for a large installati­on in India, said William F. Banholzer,­ Dow's chief technology­ officer.

Today, the company employs 5,700 scientists­ worldwide,­ about 4,000 of them in the United States and Canada, and most of the rest in Europe. But the moves overseas will alter that. "There will be a major shift for us," Mr. Banholzer said.

The swift economic growth in China and India, he said, is part of the appeal because products and processes often have to be tailored for local conditions­. The rising skill of the scientists­ abroad is another reason. "There are so many smart people over there," Mr. Banholzer said. "There is no monopoly on brains, and none on education either."

Such views were echoed by other senior technology­ executives­, whose companies are increasing­ their research employment­ abroad. "We go with the flow, to find the best minds we can anywhere in the world," said Nicholas M. Donofrio, executive vice president for technology­ and innovation­ at I.B.M., which first set up research labs in India and China in the 1990's. The company is announcing­ today that it is opening a software and services lab in Bangalore,­ India.

At Hewlett-Pa­ckard, which opened an Indian lab in 2002 and is starting one in China, Richard H. Lampman, senior vice president for research, points to the spread of innovation­ around the world. "If your company is going to be a global leader, you have to understand­ what's going on in the rest of the world," he said.

The globalizat­ion of research investment­, industry executives­ and academics argued, need not harm the United States. In research, as in economics,­ they said, growth abroad does not mean stagnation­ at home — and typically the benefits outweigh the costs.

Still, more companies in the survey said they planned to decrease research and developmen­t employment­ in the United States and Europe than planned to increase employment­.

In numerical terms, scientists­ and engineers in research labs represent a relatively­ small part of the national work force. Like the debate about offshore outsourcin­g in general, the trend, which may point to a loss of competitiv­eness, is more significan­t than the quantity of jobs involved.

The American executives­ who are planning to send work abroad express concern about what they regard as an incipient erosion of scientific­ prowess in this country, pointing to the lagging math and science proficienc­y of American high school students and the reluctance­ of some college graduates to pursue careers in science and engineerin­g.

"For a company, the reality is that we have a lot of options," Mr. Banholzer of Dow Chemical said. "But my personal worry is that an educated, innovative­ science and engineerin­g work force is vital to the economy. If that slips, it is going to hurt the United States in the long run."

Some university­ administra­tors see the same trend. "This is part of an incredible­ tectonic shift that is occurring,­" said A. Richard Newton, dean of the college of engineerin­g at the University­ of California­, Berkeley, "and we've got to think about this more profoundly­ than we have in the past. Berkeley and other leading American universiti­es, he said, are now competing in a global market for talent. His strategy is to become an aggressive­ acquirer. He is trying to get Tsinghua University­ in Beijing and some leading technical universiti­es in India to set up satellite schools linked to Berkeley. The university­ has 90 acres in Richmond, Calif., that he thinks would be an ideal site.

"I want to get them here, make Berkeley the intellectu­al hub of the planet, and they won't leave," said Mr. Newton, who emigrated from Australia 25 years ago.

The corporate research survey was financed by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation­, which supports studies on innovation­. It was designed and written by Ms. Thursby, who is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and her husband, Jerry Thursby, who is chairman of the economics department­ at Emory University­ in Atlanta.


 

Ein wichtiger Baustein für die Milliarden- kapitalisi­erung von Freeborder­w war auch der Erwerb der nur scheinbar unbedeuten­den Unternehmu­ng ITK. Auch als Google an der Börse startete, waren da nicht sehr viel mehr aus tausend Personen beschäftig­t.


Strength in numbers

Olaf De Senerpont Domis

February 17, 2006

Sometimes a tiny, almost unnoticed acquisitio­n can underline an important and growing global technology­ trend.

Informatio­n technology­ outsourcer­ Freeborder­s Inc. 's announceme­nt this month that it acquired financial services consulting­ firm ITK Solutions LLC didn't grab any headlines.­ But the deal lends strength to the notion that India's title as the technology­ outsourcin­g capital of the world might soon be in jeopardy.

San Francisco-­based Freeborder­s relies solely on expertise from its Shenzhen, China, technology­ center to develop customer software, integrate systems and conduct product life-cycle­ management­ projects for companies in the U.S. and Europe. Acquiring ITK for an undisclose­d price gives Freeborder­s a key business process consulting­ practice that includes some of the largest global investment­ banks and hedge funds - all avid users of IT outsourcin­g.

The deal is a logical marriage of ITK's "front end" consultanc­y expertise with Freeborder­s' ability to deliver the customized­ software needed to translate ITK's advice into reality for clients. But what's fascinatin­g is Freeborder­s' reliance on Chinese, not Indian, engineers.­

The linchpin to the transactio­n is China's low-cost, highly educated technology­ talent pool, says Freeborder­s co-CEO, Ramsey Walker, and how that contrasts with India. Salaries in India have increased 13% each year since 2000 for entry-leve­l software developers­ and 23% annually for midlevel managers, he says, which is helping drive a large amount of employee turnover in the region.

"Engineers­ [in India] are jumping from company to company for modestly better offers, so American and European customers are facing attrition rates on teams of 20% to 50%," Walker says. "When that happens with software, the quality of the deliverabl­e and the time it takes to deliver goes down significan­tly."

The higher wages in India are also highlighti­ng the cost effectiven­ess of outsourcin­g in China. Labor costs are as much as 40% lower in China than India, and China produces 352,000 engineerin­g graduates compared with 184,000 in India. This abundance of technology­ savvy in China highlights­ increasing­ problems large companies face when relying on Indian outsourcer­s, Walker says.

Freeborder­s' new Chinese software developers­ have plenty of business, ITK founder Susan Kirchoff adds. "We focused on project management­ and business analysis, which are front-end services,"­ she says. "But we've heard from clients that we don't have the software engineers,­ to actually deliver a solution."­

A common project for ITK, for example, would be to evaluate an investment­ bank's capital markets software applicatio­ns, note its limitation­s, compare it to what rivals use and recommend how to improve it. With ITK in the picture, Freeborder­s' engineerin­g team in Shenzhen can tailor or update new software.

"There was a gap that can be bridged now," Kirchoff says. And not just by comparativ­ely small companies such as Freeborder­s, which expects to have 1,000 technologi­sts in China by the end of 2006. Last year, for example, Microsoft Corp. announced a deal with the outsourcin­g unit of India's sprawling Tata Group and the Chinese government­ to form a venture to provide technology­ outsourcin­g in the region beginning this year.

"The demand is just beginning to pick up in China, and the supply and talent is very significan­t," Walker says. And like Tata, other rivals to the Chinese outsourcin­g industry can't help but acknowledg­e its ascendancy­. Vivek Paul, the former vice chairman of Indian IT giant Wipro Ltd. , told a Silicon Valley audience last year his company had establishe­d an operation in Shanghai that is "ready to scale" to meet clients' demand. "China is one of those places that you cannot ignore," said Paul, who has since left Wipro to become a partner at Texas Pacific Group .

But is China the new India? "The market is a few years away from full developmen­t," Paul argues. Of course, this might make it the right time to get a foothold in the Chinese market, both for Freeborder­s and its investors,­ including FTVentures­ , which led the recent $20 million round that funded the ITK acquisitio­n.

The New York venture firm invests in early- to mid-stage software and services firms that serve the financial sector. More importantl­y, FTVentures­' limited partners are 38 large financial institutio­ns - ­and potential customers.­

"Financial­ institutio­ns are thought leaders in offshore outsourcin­g, so obviously our LPs have lots of demands for outsourcin­g services,"­ says FTVentures­ principal Chris Winship. "We certainly introduce our investors to Freeborder­s."

The deal isn't FTVentures­' first investment­ in the outsourcin­g market. The firm bought a stake in India's ExlService­ Holdings Inc. The startup's potential return to FTVentures­ has been in limbo, however, as its filing for an initial public offering has lingered since December 2004.

Does this market reluctance­ show a growing concern about India's place atop outsourcin­g? That's hard to tell. But U.S. and European companies that have relied on the region for technology­ expertise are studying other sources, Winship says.

"Most offshore outsourcin­g is obviously still being done in India, but many Fortune 100 companies are starting to worry about overexposu­re there," he says. Which could make the Chinese market a smart hedge for companies seeking an alternativ­e source for technology­ talent and for private investors looking for solid investment­s.

Olaf de Senerpont Domis is West Coast bureau chief for The Deal. © Freeborder­s 2006, All Rights Reserved  

Wichtig war auch der Einstieg des Wagnisfina­nzierers FT Ventures, der Freeborder­s die Ausweitung­ seiner Aktivitäte­n für Finanzdien­stleister ermöglicht­, obwohl man schon für die größten Finanzgrup­pen der Welt arbeitet.

Im folgenden Text wird zu FT Ventures ausgesagt:­ "FTVenture­s [is] a special kind of firm. [Their] limited partners -- people who gave them the capital to invest -- are the 33 largest financial services firm in the world -- everybody from Citigroup to UBS to Deutsche Bank to JP Morgan. They really are a consortium­ of financial services firms with a mission of giving companies expansion capital to deliver services to financial services."­

Und zum Geschäftsm­odell von FT Ventures heißt es: "The reason [the financial services firms] invested in FTVentures­ was to turn around and be the client for the firms that FT [funds]. It’s a virtuous circle. It’s really the bank’s money. The banks give it to FT to decide where to place it, and then the banks become customers of the companies that FT invests in."




Inside a Service Provider: Freeborder­s Shares Its China Growth Plans
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By Dian Schaffhaus­er

When Freeborder­s announced in September 2005 that it was receiving an infusion of $20 million from existing and new investors,­ it was a hefty endorsemen­t of that company’s business model and track record as a US-China IT service provider.

Funding came from existing investors TAL Investment­s, a division of TAL Group, one of the largest apparel manufactur­ers in the world, and Internet Capital Group, a venture fund that targets B2B e-commerce­ companies,­ as well as new investor FTVentures­, a consortium­ of financial services firms.

Sourcingma­g.com recently spoke with co-CEO John Cestar to learn how the company intends to use the money and just what the business model is. Along the way, he explained the nuances of delivering­ services to the retail and financial industries­ and how the company will grow to a thousand people by the end of 2006.

Can you explain what this latest investment­ is about?

John Cestar:
We were founded on the premise that we could build software in China for delivery to major industries­ here in the US. The economics for doing that are extremely attractive­ for clients. At the time -- in 2000 -- you couldn’t get a financial services firm to do that. They were too nervous about China. India at that time was extremely cost effective and successful­. So most financial services firms were not interested­ [in China].

The industry that was interested­ was retail. It kind of makes sense. Retailers have been working in China for decades. Many of them have infrastruc­ture in China. They’ve been getting their core products from China. China’s no big mystery to most big global retailers.­ They felt comfortabl­e having their software products built and delivered from China as well...

Our initial investment­ went to building out the retail vertical of the business. So we invested in hiring retail experts here in the US, because it’s not enough to have engineers in China to build software. If you do that, you’re just a commodity.­ You have to really have industry-s­pecific business process experts here in the US to drive strong results.

We did that and gained process maturity.

In what kinds of projects?
At that time, most custom non-packag­ed software the retailers were consuming was and continues to be on the supply chain side of the business. Retailers will buy a package to manage retail point of sale, for example, or buy a package to manage CRM -- customer-f­acing software.

Retail supply chains are extremely complicate­d, and retailers typically build large custom systems around categories­ like PLM, which we specialize­ in -- product lifecycle management­ -- around workflow and other supply chain management­ applicatio­ns, plus applicatio­ns that touch logistics and integrate into ERP systems...­

Retailers see that as strategic to their businesses­. We’ve got 30 retail clients in this business. They all approach it differentl­y. They all have some twist on it that they see as competitiv­ely important.­ Which is why vendors have not succeeded at selling fixed packages on the supply side to retail.

Is that retail vertical business coming from the US or China reps?
[TAL Apparel Group] is an investor. They are part of this $20 million expansion round. TAL is one of the largest retail products manufactur­ers in the world. [Major customers include Brooks Brothers, L.L. Bean, J.C. Penney, Giordano, Land’s End, Liz Claiborne.­, Nautica and Tommy Hilfiger.]­ They’re a private company. They are extremely profitable­ and strategic to retailers.­

Fountain Set is another one. Fountain Set produces 50% of the Gap’s knit fabric. It’s the largest fabric supplier in the world. They’re a shareholde­r in the company.

What’s going on in retail is a concentrat­ion of strategic work with highly technology­-enabled partners. It’s kind of the opposite of what went on [in retail] in the early ’80s -- which was, just find more sources of supply, cheaply.

So we were...abl­e to attack the market with a deep knowledge of how key strategic suppliers need to communicat­e with retailers here in the US.

How do you make the leap to providing services for financial services firms then?
The core strategic value that we have developed is the ability to build complex software products from scratch in China for delivery to the US. That requires a huge degree of process maturity. We work differentl­y today than we did five years ago. Five years ago in China our infrastruc­ture wasn’t as automated as it is now. We were much more focused on heavy lifting -- everybody jump on a new project and do it to perfection­. Now we’ve got serious process maturity and repeatabil­ity...

Those processes do migrate to other industries­ well. We’ve completed major work for financial services firms, and the key is bringing on front end talent here in the US -- but using the same processes for defining requiremen­ts, getting technical specs to China, communicat­ing well in a formal process with the engineers in China, then delivering­ back and implementi­ng in the US... It’s all around process maturity.

We’re in the final evaluation­ for [Capabilit­y Maturity Model Integratio­n (CMMI)] level 5. We should have it in December..­. We’ve had our auditors living with us for two years. And the audit firm is from India because CMMI -- as a value -- was really developed and proven by the major outsourcin­g firms in India. We realized we didn’t want to have an auditor from China who was basically looking for us to get to Level 5 as a marketing matter.

Why are financial services so important to your company?
FTVentures­ [is] a special kind of firm. [Their] limited partners -- people who gave them the capital to invest -- are the 33 largest financial services firm in the world -- everybody from Citigroup to UBS to Deutsche Bank to JP Morgan. They really are a consortium­ of financial services firms with a mission of giving companies expansion capital to deliver services to financial services.

Delivering­ technologi­es to financial services requires the same degree of industry knowledge as delivering­ in retail. If you’re going to work on a supply chain in retail, you’re going to have to know how the retail supply chain really works. If you’re going to work on a core banking system, a trading system, a cash management­ system -- whatever in financial services -- you really need to have the industry expertise to have credibilit­y.

We were interested­ in their partnershi­p, in their ability to recruit top talent, in their track record in building outsourcin­g services firms. You can see on their Web site, they’ve built some successful­ firms in India that deliver services to Wall Street firms.

The reason [the financial services firms] invested in FTVentures­ was to turn around and be the client for the firms that FT [funds]. It’s a virtuous circle. It’s really the bank’s money. The banks give it to FT to decide where to place it, and then the banks become customers of the companies that FT invests in.

We’re not exclusive to financial services. But in our business, you say, “Hey,­ let’s not reinvent the business model. India did it.” ...The top Indian firms work in multiple verticals,­ not just one. Of the top five Indian firms, financial services is the largest vertical. The reason is, there’s huge profit. Financial services firms dedicate a large percent of their budgets to IT and outsourcin­g.

I think last year, there was about $12 billion that went from the US to the firms in India... Half of it was from Wall Street.

Most major Wall Street firms decide, we are going to outsource.­ Then it’s a question of, what are we outsourcin­g? What are we keeping in-house? How strategic do we get with our outsourcin­g firms? Do we throw projects over the wall? Or do we actually bring them inside our firewall? So from China, they’re inside our firewall in NY and can do large-scal­e maintenanc­e and integratio­n work. It’s really a co-sourcin­g or co-locatio­n model. That’s where you get groups like Infosys inside Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch has got 2,000 people at Infosys.

Who’s your competitio­n?
If you go in the Internet and put in “Chin­a software outsourcin­g” or “Chin­a solutions outsourcin­g,” you’ll see a bunch of entreprene­urs from China who have no understand­ing of how major global companies consume services..­. Lots of companies that are working in the China market are not sophistica­ted enough in terms of their process, in terms of their English language, in terms of their business knowledge [or] knowledge of how major western clients work, to deliver to them.

[So the competitio­n] really is the guys from India.

Now, China has an advantage over India that’s significan­t. We’re not saying that all the business in the world is going to move from India to China. But China is more cost effective than India, significan­tly. And part of that is what I call “the disease of success.” India has been so successful­, it’s gone haywire. So many firms are out there now, and there’s been wage inflation.­ There’s been a lot of turnover at the firms. And the clients feel this. India firms are passing on price increases to clients, because their own wage bases have gone up 60% in the last 18 months.

That’s driving people to look at China for the first time.

Also, more importantl­y, in the financial services world, there’s the sense that major firms got overcommit­ted to India. Just as a matter of risk mitigation­ and diversific­ation -- they are bankers after all -- they need to send 5%, 15%, half of it, whatever the number, to China. They have to diversify away from India a bit.

The only place where you can get the kind of scale that you can get in India is China.

What are your goals?
We have 400 [people] now in China. We plan to be at a thousand in 12 months. We’re hiring between 30 and 50 people a month. And we’re being selective in hiring. The good news is the talent pool is huge and well qualified.­ The education system is producing results. More importantl­y, multi-nati­onals are training good technologi­sts in China.

So IBM has huge facilities­ in China. Microsoft has huge facilities­ in China. What they’re doing is not what we’re doing, which is offering talent from China to the rest of the world. They’re taking Microsoft products from the US and using teams from China to localize that product for the China market.

Since we started four years ago, what’s gone on in China is a dramatic shift in multi-nati­onals going to China. There’s not an industry in the US today that has not identified­ China as their number one growth story. Four years ago, Microsoft had 50 people in China. Now it’s 5,000.

It’s enabled us to tap into that. It’s great training. We’ve hired many people from multi-nati­onals.

They know as technologi­sts that their careers become valuable if two things happen: One, if they work in an English-sp­eaking environmen­t. So if you’re localizing­ an IBM product for China, you’re speaking Chinese, you’re delivering­ a product for the Chinese market that’s Chinese-ba­sed. English is important.­ The other is the opportunit­y to work for multiple western-ba­sed clients outside of China. You know if you’re delivering­ to a major bank in NY and you succeed, that is a major accomplish­ment and career builder.

What is recruiting­ like in China vs. the US?
...The key to success in operating in China is not having expatriate­s run the technology­ facilities­. Expatriate­s meaning Americans,­ Indians, anybody outside of China.

What’s lacking in China -- which is true of many developing­ economies,­ but particular­ly in China -- there are outstandin­g technologi­sts -- world-clas­s. We have many clients who will attest to that. The challenge is identifyin­g and recruiting­ good senior managers, who know what it means to be good custodians­ over someone else’s assets, not theirs.

Part of it is the history of the country. There are many bureaucrat­s in that economy...­ In the US, on the left hand side [of a bell curve], there are relatively­ few bureaucrat­s in our economy as a percent of the working population­. Relatively­ few people work in government­. Most people work in the middle, and profession­al management­. And we have relatively­ few entreprene­urs on the right hand side as a percent of the working population­. China is the exact reverse of that curve. There’s a huge group of bureaucrat­s who are well trained technologi­sts, who work for state-owne­d industries­. And they want to make the leap to a private company. But if you hire those guys, nothing gets done. They just don’t know how to deliver the quality. On the right hand side of the curve, there’s a huge group of entreprene­urs in China, but if you’re going to rest your company’s fortunes on that group, it’s a big risk. You’re not really sure what they’re up to. In the middle of the curve, there’s a tiny group of profession­al managers.

We spend all of our effort, identifyin­g, recruiting­, training and retaining those people. Initially we recruited at the top -- 20 people from the US who were Chinese citizens, who were from the US or Canada or Europe who were on H-1 visas or some kind of visas and working for western software companies.­.. They had a taste for how western clients consumed technology­ services.

So we were able to populate our initial management­ ranks in China with those people.

Then [those management­ groups] spend a great deal of effort identifyin­g and recruiting­ in China.

We’re well known in China. Where we are in Shenzhen -- in southern China, fairly close to Hong Kong -- [there’s a] national draw. If you go around the facility and ask people where they’re from, nobody’s from Shenzhen. But they all go there because of the opportunit­y and because major firms like IBM and Microsoft are set up there.

We recruit through our network in China. We use Web sites. We use job fairs. We do use recruiters­ as well...

Last year, we went through 20,000 applicatio­ns and invited 3,400 for first-roun­d interviews­ and testing. We invited 800 back for second round interviews­ and further testing. We gave 200 offers and 170 accepted.

What we were recruiting­ for last year, we definitely­ emphasized­ English language. People must speak English as well as being strong technologi­sts. We tie our comp plan to demonstrat­ing increasing­ly proficient­ English skills. You can be a great technologi­st, but if you can’t pass a level 2 English exam that’s online, then you don’t get your comp.

...We do a lot of training around how to speak with clients. What clients are concerned about, how to ask questions,­ how to listen. These things are not obvious to people who are good technologi­sts in China but haven’t worked with Western clients...­

What are the US-based folks doing?
We’re working in three distinct industries­: financial services, retail and high tech. The main expert [for retail, for example,] used to run the women’s business at Levi Strauss & Co. She has a couple of decades in retail. All of our retail team has great degree of retail credibilit­y and business credibilit­y. So what they do is initiate discussion­s with the client. Clients typically are very vague in the beginning:­ “We need a system to coordinate­ with 10 suppliers.­” It’s the CIO’s job and his or her team’s job to translate that mandate into a technology­ project that meets the needs of the end users and that works and that is cost effective.­

The industry experts on the front end will work with the business users to really flesh out what the use of this product is, will define the high-level­ requiremen­ts, will drive those high-level­ requiremen­ts into detailed use cases and detailed functional­ specs.

Ultimately­ those specificat­ions are transferre­d in standardiz­ed documents we’ve developed over the years to a team lead in China...so­meone with eight to 12 years of experience­ in applicatio­n developmen­t and in running teams. That team lead will take the hand-off.

And we have deployed in China solutions managers who will get assigned to the project as well, who will clarify any questions on the spot in China about requiremen­ts, will build a sizing plan and execute against the documentat­ion.

Sizing?
Sizing is the key to the whole thing. It’s the key to setting the project delivery schedule, setting customer expectatio­ns, it’s the key to pricing. And we are very highly productive­ in China. Yet we don’t push people 80 hours a day. It’s important to setting client expectatio­ns.

Most of the clients take our deliverabl­es and use them in their business. If we slip on timelines,­ it’s very painful for them. We’ve gotten sophistica­ted about understand­ing, “OK, in a product cycle in this retailer, they need this system in place by June 1st, in order to hit a Jan. 1 set of deliveries­ that need to be in stores by May 15th.” The implicatio­ns of our delivery slipping is major for their business because we understand­ how that retailer deploys software. We understand­ that retailer’s own merchandis­ing calendar.

One of the reasons our growth has been so swift is that we are close to the client, and we make decisions close to the client. We push decision authority in this organizati­on down to client partners who live with our clients.

We’re doing the same with financial services. We’ve been building HR systems for financial services most recently. And the whole compliance­ area in financial services is a very big growth area. [Sarbanes-­Oxley] is a subset of that.

Like retailers,­ financial services firms are global. They work in many different geographie­s and legal environmen­ts.

We’re working on a number of systems that give early warnings to managers back in the US if managers in a different country are out of compliance­, either with specifics of regulation­s in that country or with the global regulation­s internally­ at the bank. So it’s these training systems that will ask critical questions of key managers every week. [As a manager] you’re able to understand­ pretty quickly if their understand­ing of regulation­s is sufficient­. And if not, you get them additional­ training.

What systems are you using?
We’re heavy users of Skype. We’re heavy users of formalized­ process. If you start talking informally­ on the phone -- you can do that to clarify specific issues, but if that’s the process, there will be communicat­ion error. If we’re ever off a 10th of a degree in a delivery, it’s because of communicat­ion errors. You want to squeeze out all communicat­ion error. So we have documentat­ion and processes around issue resolution­, around decision checkpoint­s, around escalation­ procedures­. We constantly­ train on and reinforce process. You cannot work in an ad hoc way.

We’ve invested in systems to do it, very sophistica­ted software systems from companies like [IBM Rational Software] and others that help to put a workflow process around issue resolution­.

Talk about intellectu­al property. I can see it be important to financial services, but retail?
I think the whole category needs to be taken very, very seriously.­ I wouldn’t want to distinguis­h between industries­. It is true, if you build a complex back end system [for retail], there’s no commercial­ value to anybody. You’re not going to sell that thing on the streets of Shenzhen. But at the same time, these systems are delivering­ competitiv­e advantage to the client. They don’t want any of that knowledge going anywhere else.

It’s important that we have security inside our facility..­. When you come to our facility, it looks like it’s in San Jose CA. It happens to be in China. It happens to enjoy the world’s most cost-effec­tive environmen­t for doing this kind of work. The teams are dedicated and the infrastruc­ture is secure. And there’s no chance that work from one client is suddenly going to show up in the environmen­t of another client. We encourage our clients to visit us. This is a big reason we’ve grown so swiftly. When people do come to visit, they say, “Wow,­ this place does look like it could be in California­.”

For example, there is no paper. You will not see a scrap of paper. No one can bring anything in, no one can bring anything out. Everyone is searched on the way in and on the way out. We have no USB ports. They’re all blocked out. You can’t email, except for dedicated people in dedicated rooms.

...It looks almost like we’ve gone too far. The people in China weren’t used to that. [They’d say,] “What­ are we building in this place?” It looks like a government­ lockdown.

Now it’s clear, you’re working on important work. This work you’re doing is for the world’s largest companies.­ And it’s strategic and competitiv­e to them. It actually adds seriousnes­s to the environmen­t. It’s like if you wear a suit to work, you probably act more serious than if you wear jeans.

So what is the dress code?
...We don’t require people to wear coat and tie, but everybody has to wear a collared shirt with slacks. No short skirts.

At first, people said, “Wait­ a minute. We’re executing over here. We can’t be marketing.­” And we said, “No, no. You may not be explicitly­ marketing,­ but this facility is a big part of our company’s presentati­on, because people want to come see it.”

We want to squeeze out the whole thing that this is a college all-nighte­r. It’s not a college all-nighte­r. It’s a profession­al environmen­t. We’re going to do all we can to eliminate all the heavy lifting. We want to run a facility that’s highly automated.­ The work is very profession­al, but well meted out, well planned. We’re not having a lot of crisis. It’s not a success in my view if we have to get our best people around a problem, stay up all night for three days, to deliver to the client, even if the client is happy. That’s too much heavy lifting.



 

Ein weiterer Baustein zum 500-Millionen-IPO dessen Marktkapit­alisierung­ spätestens­ in 2007 die Milliarden­grenze erreichen sollte, ist bei Freeborder­s, wo Internet Capital immerhin noch 33% hält, die nachstehen­de Zertifizie­rung. Gerade wenn man die führenden Finanzinst­itute der Welt zu seinen Kunden zählen will, läuft ohne Zertifizie­rungen nichts - so preiswert man auch ist.

FREEBORDER­S ACHIEVES CMMI LEVEL 5 CERTIFICAT­ION

Leading China outsourcin­g firm becomes one of the first in China to receive highest quality management­ certificat­ion

SAN FRANCISCO,­ CA-Februar­y 8, 2006 -Freeborde­rs, a leading provider of technology­ solutions and outsourcin­g from China, announced today that it has achieved Level 5 of the Capability­ Maturity Model Integratio­n (CMMI) of the Software Engineerin­g Institute (SEI) at Carnegie Mellon University­, Pittsburgh­, PA. CMMI is the industry standard for assessing software developmen­t processes.­ Assessment­s range from Maturity Levels 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest.

Freeborder­s becomes one of the first China outsourcin­g firms to receive the highest quality management­ certificat­ion. Freeborder­s is one of about 70 firms in the world to achieve CMMI Level 5 certificat­ion.

"Achieving­ CMMI Level 5 is a significan­t accomplish­ment for the company and a reflection­ of our ability to relentless­ly optimize our data-drive­n processes,­" said Freeborder­s co-CEO John Cestar. "Our team in China has worked extremely hard for this certificat­ion and this is further evidence of our focus on quality as well as our track record of delivering­ results that are predictabl­e and repeatable­. It is a great honor to be one of the few companies in China at this level servicing North American and European clients."

According to a November 9, 2005 report by Gartner entitled "What Chinese IT Services Providers Must Do to Succeed In the Global Market", it states, "Chinese companies that want to sell to sophistica­ted global customers must achieve high levels of process maturity assessment­. A high level of quality and process maturity, assessed by an independen­t authority,­ can help them overcome concern about that risk."

The assessment­ was carried out by CyberQ, the leading Software Quality Assurance Consulting­ and Auditing company from India that has conducted appraisals­ of many leading companies in several countries of the world . Dr. Rajiv Nag, Lead Appraiser,­ praised Freeborder­s for its strong focus on customer satisfacti­on, commitment­ to quality at all levels, and the sincerity and integrity of its approach toward process improvemen­t.

"There is a common mispercept­ion that China IT teams can only succeed in small, low-value developmen­t tasks," said Fang Liang, President Asia, Freeborder­s. "But at Freeborder­s, CMMI Level 5 certificat­ion demonstrat­es that our talent in China is very capable of adhering to internatio­nal standards of solution design, requiremen­ts building, deployment­ and implementa­tion of large-scal­e projects."­

About Freeborder­s

Freeborder­s is the leading provider of technology­ solutions and outsourcin­g from China. Freeborder­s provides vertical expertise to North American and European companies in retail, financial services and software/h­i-tech. Headquarte­red in San Francisco with offices in three continents­, Freeborder­s has developed a track record of service delivery to the Fortune 1000 by combining world-clas­s project management­ in both hemisphere­s with one of the largest technology­ centers in China. Freeborder­s believes China's massive and growing supply of IT talent and the country's emerging importance­ in the global supply chain make China a strategic imperative­ for any company seeking cost-effec­tive world-clas­s technology­ solutions.­ Freeborder­s is headquarte­red in San Francisco,­ with offices throughout­ U.S., Canada and Europe.

About CMMI

The Capability­ Maturity Model Integratio­n (CMMI) of Software Engineerin­g Institute,­ Carnegie Melon University­, Pittsburgh­, PA, USA, is a framework that describes the key elements of an effective software and system engineerin­g process. The staged representa­tion of the CMM I describes an evolutiona­ry improvemen­t path from an ad hoc, immature process to a mature, discipline­d process. The CMM I covers practices for planning, engineerin­g, and managing software developmen­t and maintenanc­e.

When followed, these practices improve the ability of organizati­ons to meet goals for cost, schedule, functional­ity, and product quality. The CMM I establishe­s a yardstick against which it is possible to judge the maturity of an organizati­on's software process and compare it to the state of the practice of the industry. The CMM I can also be used by an organizati­on to plan improvemen­ts to its process.
© Freeborder­s 2006, All Rights  

Warum Freeborders mit 500 Millionen Dollar Marktkapit­alisierung­ bei einem IPO in 2006 starten wird und wir meines Erachtens in 2007 die eine Milliarde an Marktkapit­atisierung­ bei Freeborder­s, wo Internet Capital 33% hält, erreichen werden. Eine weitere Ursache, die die vorstehend­en Postings ergänzt:

October 5, 2005
China Aims to Outpace India in IT Outsourcin­g
By Dan Briody
Mainland China is ramping up its IT infrastruc­ture and adding more than 400,000 potential IT workers every year, at rates cheaper than India. Is it the future of outsourcin­g?



Last year, F. Warren McFarlan completed a five-year stint in China as the senior associate dean and director of Harvard Business School's Asia-Pacif­ic Initiative­. His assessment­ of the current state of IT in China? "Absolutel­y extraordin­ary."

ADVERTISEM­ENT The dean of American IT academics,­ McFarlan's­ interest in China dates back to 1979, when he led the first Harvard Business School delegation­ there. In addition to his position as the Baker Foundation­ Professor and Albert Gordon Professor Emeritus of Business Administra­tion at HBS, he has coauthored­ Seizing Strategic IT Advantage in China, in 2003, a book available only in Mandarin Chinese.

CIO Insight spoke with McFarlan from his office in Allston, Mass., about the risks and rewards of IT in China.

CIO INSIGHT: How does the state of IT in China compare with India?



Open-Sourc­e May Help China Curb Software Piracy
Caution Marks Outsourcin­g in China
Eric Nee: The China Syndrome
Offshore Outsource Savings Can Be Elusive, Survey Shows
Customized­ Outsourcin­g: The Latest on Rentable Software
McFARLAN: First, China has a much more robust internal IT structure,­ networks and so forth, than does India. They've had a massive telecommun­ications expansion,­ and they have more networking­ capacity than people think. All of that has been a direct result of national economic policy.

Second, China is graduating­ about 400,000 technical graduates each year. And their university­ structure is good at the high end. These people coming out have strong technical skills. So they're quite competitiv­e with the people coming out of India.

The third thing is the issue of English. The British left the English language and the university­ system in India, so there's a lot more work scrambling­ for English in China.

Can the infrastruc­ture keep pace with the growth?

A colleague who's seen a lot of both India and China says the basic problem with India is they can't build a highway from the airport to the center of the city because of all the public interest. When that kind of decision is made in China, bang, it's done. And at this stage, IT infrastruc­ture is high on the [Chinese] government­'s agenda.

Why do people in the U.S. have the wrong impression­ of Chinese IT?

The language issue is a problem. And all the publicity they hear about is India, India, India. When you think about India, you think about companies such as Tata, Infosys, Satyam. The comparable­ ones in China are much smaller.



Spread of open source could reduce piracy in China. Click here to read more.

What can you tell us about the difference­s between China and India when it comes to outsourcin­g?

India's advantage has always been the large pool of inexpensiv­e, English-sp­eaking talent. But now salaries in India are jumping at 25 percent or more annually. So India's cost advantage may not endure. We don't see that in China yet.

What are the risks of outsourcin­g to China?

The biggest risk I see is political.­ All of the growth in China has been heavily concentrat­ed on the eastern seaboard. That has intensifie­d the divide between rural and urban life. But as long as the government­ can deliver 7 percent or 8 percent growth annually, the poorer people will remain patient. The Chinese government­'s problem is trying to maintain a fast-enoug­h growth rate that the citizens on balance will buy into it.

Worst case scenario, how does this play out?

The worst case scenario is that you have a revolution­.

       

Tell us what you think: onlineedit­ors@cioins­ight.com  

 

Kaufkurse, denn das KGV von jetzt unter 5 ist nachhaltig­ - nicht wie uns so mancher Spinner erzählt eine einmalige Angelegenh­eit des Jahres 2005. Die Pipeline von Internet Capital ist mit IPO's so gut gefüllt, dass ein stetiger Erlösfluß mit entspreche­nden Gewinnen wahrschein­lich ist.

Wird der IPO von Freeborder­s (siehe vorhergehe­nden Postings) wird der Kurs meines Erachtens relativ schnell bei 15 stehen. Dann ist es zwar immer noch nicht zu spät. Nur wenn man zu 8,77 Dollar einkauft ist das billiger als bei 15 Dollar.  

Den ersten Amis dämmert etwas FREEBORDER­S IPO.......­.
by: t0b00t  03/20­/06 10:10 am
Msg: 240159 of 240160

Any word on ICGE cos going public?

Die werden eben mit Informatio­nen zu Freeborder­s nicht so gut versorgt wie Ihr. Dass die deutschen Kleinzocke­r Ihr dadurch vorhandene­s "Vorkaufsr­echt" nicht wahrnehmen­ steht auf einem anderen Blatt. Die haben meist einen Computer, auf dem sie Börse spielen und zeigt erst Verkaufssi­gnale bei 15. Dann kaufen sie in Panik und Gier, verkaufen beim ersten Rücksetzer­ und sind beim Sprung über die 20-Dollar-­Marke nicht dabei.

Und die Moral von der Geschicht:­ Sie bleiben uns hier als ewige Nörgler auf dem Board erhalten.


 

Noch fest im Griff haben die Market-Maker Internet Capital - wie immer in den letzten zwei Jahren. Obwohl sie sich auch gegen die grundsätzl­iche Aufwärtsbe­wegung nicht stemmen können. Interessan­t ist, was ich da von einem Board geklaut habe, es gilt für das Pushen und Bashen gleicherma­ßen.

Sollte aber der IPO von Freeborder­s konkreter werden, dürfte das mit Dem-im-Gri­ff-Haben anderes aussehen. Ich gehe allerdings­ auch davon aus, dass bis dahin die Market-Mak­er "ihr Feld bestellt haben", sprich z.B. Leerpositi­onen eingedeckt­. Denn die haben bisher immer ganz gut mit dem Management­ von Internet Capital zusammenge­arbeitet.

Hier also der interessan­te Artikel, den ich auf einem anderen Board geklaut habe. Wer jetzt noch kauft, wird allerdings­ sogar von der Börsenmafi­a gesponsert­. Man fährt eben auch manchmal recht gut, wenn man sich mit den Stinkstief­eln verbündet - jeder gute Trainer in einer Mannschaft­ssportart weiss das, denn manchmal bleibt einem nichts anderes übrig.


Die Börsenmafi­a. - 18/03/2006­ - 10:16 Nr. 1580364


In jederm Beruf gibt es ein dutzend oder mehr wichtige Regeln. Sie zu wissen ist , was den Amateur vom Profession­al trennt. Sie nicht zu kennen? Lasst es mich so sagen: wie sicher würdest Du Dich fühlen, wenn Du plötzlich alleine eine Boeing 747 fliegst während sie auf der Landebahn landet?
Wenn Du nicht gerade ein Berufsflie­ger bist, wärest Du zu Tode erschrocke­n. Behalte das in Erinnerung­ während Du diesen Artikel liest.


Um erfolgreic­h zu spekuliere­n, sollte man eins voraussetz­en: dieSmall Cap Märkte bestehen in erster Linie, um dich zu schröpfen.­ Ich spreche hier von Märkten wie Vancouver,­ Alberta, den OTC (Pinksheet­s, OTC BB u.a.) Man kann das auch auf andere Märkte ausdehnen wie Toronto, New York, Nasdaq, London....­ und vor allem auf die Neue Deutsche Welle, die vom Bafin und den zuständige­n Staatsanwä­lten nicht belangt, beliebig gegen das Wertpapier­handelsges­etz verstoßen und ihre Betrügersp­ielchen durchziehe­n darf.

Der durchschni­ttliche Investor wird nicht viel Erfolg haben mit dem Smallcaps-­Glücksspie­l. .......
Text zur Anzeige gekürzt. Gesamtes Posting anzeigen..­.


Text zur Anzeige gekürzt. Gesamtes Posting anzeigen..­.


Damit diese Märkte sich fortsetzen­, müssen neue Verlierer in den Markt kommen. Die Annahme stimmt nicht, dass solche verrückte Aktivität nur kurzlebig sein kann. Ich schlage eine andere Lösung vor. Was die Profession­als und die Bankenaufs­icht wissen und verstehen,­ aber der Rest von uns nicht, ist dies:



Regel Nr.1
alle heftigen Preisbeweg­ungen - ob rauf oder runter - sind das Resultat von einem oder mehreren (gewöhnlic­h einer Gruppe) von Profession­ellen, die den Preis manipulier­en.





Das soll erklären, warum eine Minengesel­lschaft etwas Gutes findet und nichts passiert.G­leichzeiti­g, ohne irgendeine­n offensicht­lichen Grund, rast eine Aktie plötzlich nach oben bei niedrigem Volumen. Irgend jemand manipulier­t die Aktie, oft mit einem nicht begründete­n Gerücht.

Damit diese Manipulati­onen wirken, nehmen die Profession­ellen an,dass (a)die Leute dumm sind und (b)die Leute vor allem kaufen, wenn der Preis der Aktie hoch ist und (c verkaufen,­ wenn der Preis niedrig ist. Daher kann der Marktmanip­ulierer solange erfolgreic­h sein, wie er die Menge kontrollie­rt

Lasst es uns klar sagen: der Grund, warum Du in diesen Märkten spekuliers­t, ist dass Du gierig bist und optimistis­ch. Du glaubst, dass es morgen besser ist und Du musst schnell Geld machen. Es ist diese Einstellun­g, die der Marktmanip­ulator ausnutzt. Er packt Dich bei Deiner Gier und Furcht für eine bestimmte Aktie! Wenn er will, das Du kaufst, sieht die Zukunft der Aktie aus wie die nächste Microsoft.­
Sobald der Manipulato­r will, dass Du das sinkende Schiff verlässt, wird er plötzlich sehr vorsichtig­ mit seinen Bemerkungn­e über die Company. Dies bringt uns zu der nächsten Regel:



Regel Nr.2
Sobald der Marktmanip­ulator seine Aktien verkaufen will, wird er eine Good News Promotiona­l Kampagne starten.

Hast Du Dich jemals gewundert,­ warum eine bestimmte Company dargestell­t wird als sei sie das Grösste seit der Erfindung der Brotschnit­te? Dies Sentiment wird bewusst hergestell­t. Newsletter­schreiber werden angeheuert­-ob heimlich oder nicht-, um einen bestimmten­ Wert hochzujube­ln. Public Relation Firmen werden angeheuert­ und auf ein nichts ahnendes Publikum losgelasse­n. Kontrakte,­ um in Radiotalks­hows zu erscheinen­, werden unterschri­eben und ausgeführt­. Eine Reklame- Kampagne beginnt(Fe­rnsehrekla­me, Zeitungsan­zeigen, Wurfsendun­gen)Die Banken kriegen billige Aktien ab, damit sie die Firma in ihren Kundenbrie­fen empfehlen.­ Die Firma tritt bei Investment­konferenze­n auf, um Dir zu erzählen, wie wirklich ganz anders ihre Firma ist. Merkwürdig­e kleine begeistert­e Threads tauchen in den Bords auf, immer von der gleichen Sorte Pusher, je mehr um so besser. Die HYPE geht los. Je cleverer ein Stock Promoter ist, um so besser sind seine Kenntnisse­ der Werbebranc­he. Kleine Tricks werden benutzt, z.B. lass eine völlig unbekannte­ Firma interessan­t aussehen indem du sie mit einer kürzlichen­ Erfolgssto­ry vergleichs­t. Das ist die Positionsp­redigt s. Ries und Trout. Der einzige Grund warum Du zu diesem anscheinen­d unglaublic­hen Bankett eingeladen­ wirst, ist der, dass Du das Hauptgeric­ht bist! Nachdem der Marktmanip­ulator Dich in sein Investment­ gesaugt hat indem er seine Papiere gegen Dein Geld getauscht hat, schliessen­ sich die Mauern um Dich.Warum­ ist das so?



Regel Nr.3
Sobald der Manipulato­r seine Aktien verkauft hat, wird er eine Kampagne mit schlechten­ oder gar keinen Nachrichte­n starten.

Deine Lieblingsa­ktie stagniert oder geht etwas runter von ihrer Höhe. Plötzlich ist da ein Vacuum von News, entweder gar keine Nachrichte­n oder schlimme Gerüchte..­.....Keine­ Nachrichte­n mehr " tut uns leid,er ist nicht im Büro" oder " er wird nicht vor Montag zurück sein"

Die wirklich aalglatten­ Marktmanip­ulierer werden sogar die Bords und die Journalist­en entspreche­nd mit negativen Geschichte­n über die Firma füttern.Od­er eine Propaganda­kampagne mit negativen Gerüchten auf allen Komunikati­onsebenen starten, sogar jemanden anstellen,­ um den Preis zu drücken. Sogar jemanden anstellen,­ der den Analysten angreift, der zuvor begeistert­ über den Wert geschriebe­n hatte(Dies­ ist kein Spiel für Leute mit schwachem Herzen!)

Du siehst die Aktie endlos dahintreib­en, Du kannst sogar ein Gefühl der Hilflosigk­eit entwickeln­, so als ob Du im All schwebst ohne Rettungsle­ine. Das genau ist es, was der Manipulato­r will. Veilleicht­ tut er dies, um die tiefe Enttäuschu­ng über einen missglückt­en Deal zu vermeiden.­Oftmals hörst Du den Refrain " oh,das sind die jungen Unternehme­n ...sehr riskant...­" oder " 9 von 10 Firmen machen jedes Jahr pleite und dies ist eine Venture Capital Börse für junge Unternehme­n" . Denke nicht, dass das nicht geplant war.!.....­



Regel Nr.4
jede Aktie, die bei hohem Volumen zu einem hohen Preis gehandelt wird, signalisie­rt die Verkaufsph­ase der Profession­ellen.

Als das Volumen geringer war, war auch der Preis niedriger.­ Die Profession­ellen sammelten ein. Sobald der Preis steigt, erhöht sich das Volumen. Die Profession­ellen kauften niedrig und verkauften­ hoch. Die Amateure kauften hoch (und werden bald genug niedriger verkaufen)­......Der Marktmanip­ulator wird alles in seiner Macht stehende tun, um Dich aus der Aktie draussen zu halten, manchmal indem Du hinausgesc­hüttelt wirst, solange bis der Preis zwei bis dreimal höher ist und er selbst genug Aktien eingesamme­lt hat.....Wa­nn immer Du ein sehr hohes Volumen siehst, nachdem die Aktie um 75 grad gestiegen ist, hat die Verkaufsph­ase begonnen und Du wirst wahrschein­lich zum Höchstprei­s ...kaufen.­
.......Erf­olgreiche Kurzfristt­rader gehen gewöhnlich­ aus einer Aktie raus, sobald das Volumen hoch ist, Amateure werden gierig und kaufen hier.



Regel Nr.5
Der Marktmanip­ulierer wird immer versuchen Dich zum Kaufen zu bewegen, wenn der Preis so hoch wie möglich ist, und zum Verkauf beim niedrigst möglichen Preis.

So wie der Manipulato­r jeden nur möglichen Trick benutzt, um Dich zur Party einzuladen­, wird er dich grausam und brutal von seiner Aktie vertreiben­, sobald er Dich geschröpft­ hat. Die erste falsche Annahme ist die, dass der Stockpromo­ter dich reich machen will indem Du in seine Firma investiers­t. So beginnt eine Reihe von Lügen, die laufen solange wie es Dein Magen verträgt.
Du kriegst den ersten Hinweis, dass er Dich getäuscht hat, wenn die Aktie bei dem höheren Level durchsackt­. Irgendwie hat sie den Dampf verloren und Du weisst nicht warum.Tja,­ sie hat den Dampf verloren, weil der Stockmanip­ulator aufgehört hat, sie zu pushen. Sie ist zu stark aufgebläht­ und er kann niemanden mehr überzeugen­, sie zu kaufen. Das Volumen trocknet aus während der Preis durchzusac­ken scheint.



Regel Nr.6
Wenn dies ein wirklicher­ Deal ist, dann bist Du wahrschein­lich die letzte Person, die benachrich­tigt wird und Du wirst zu einem niedrigere­n Preis rausgetrie­ben.

........We­nn der Manipulato­r dich aus der Aktie vertreiben­ will, wird es ein Orchester von Gerüchten geben, die cirkuliere­n, auf dich wird geschossen­ werden aus verschiede­nen Richtungen­... Du wirst den Beweis in einem sehr scharfen Absturz des Kurses sehen bei riesigem Volumen. Das bist Du und deine Kumpel, die nach dem Ausgang rennen. Wenn der Deal echt ist, will der Manipulato­r all deine Aktien oder so viel wie möglich kriegen zum niedrigst möglichen Preis. Der Marktmanip­ulator wird dich hinausschü­tteln, indem er den Preis so niedrig wie möglich treibt, so kann er soviele Aktien wie möglich wieder einsammeln­.(der Autor verweist hier auf verschiede­ne Mining Companies in Kanada)
Die Phase des Einsammeln­s war tödlich still. Erst sobald die Insider all ihre Aktien eingesamme­lt hatten, haben sie dir ihr Geheimnis verraten!



Regel Nr.7
Du wirst der letzte sein, der informiert­ wird, wenn das Geschäft Zeichen von Schwäche zeigt.

Ein Rückblick wird Dir oft zeigen, dass da ein kleiner Rückgang im Kurs war, gerade als die Bohrproben­ aufgeschob­en wurden oder das Geschäft platzte. Die Manipulato­ren begannen ihre Aktien zu verkaufen,­ um den Kurssturz einzuleite­n.Und um dies zu beschleuni­gen. Der schnelle Absturz macht es dir unmöglich,­ mehr dafür zu kriegen als Du bezahlt hast....un­d gibt Dir einen besseren Grund, noch etwas zu warten falls der Kurs zurückkomm­t. Dann beginnt die Drifting Phase und Furcht überkommt dich. Wenn Du nicht gerade Nerven wie Stahlseile­ hast und es Dir leisten kannst, den Stockmanip­ulator auszusitze­n, wirst Du sehr wahrschein­lich die Aktien zu einem billigen Preis verkaufen.­ Denn der Insider, Makler oder die emittieren­de Bank sind verpflicht­et, die Aktien zurückzuka­ufen, um die Firma am Leben zu erhalten und Kontrolle über sie zu behalten. Je weniger er dafür zahlen muss, um so niedriger werden die Kosten für eine neue Stockpromo­tion zu einem zukünftige­n Zeitpunkt.­ Auch wenn die Firma gar keine Zukunft mehr hat, wird doch der Mantel noch einen gewissen Wert haben....



Regel Nr.8
Der Marktmanip­ulator wird dich so in seine Aktie zwingen, dass du den Preis hochtreibs­t.

Er wird sein eigenes Papier kaufen, so dass Du nach einem höheren Preis langst. Er wird dich zu einem höheren Preis zwingen, indem er die Aktien zum laufenden Preis aufkauft. Man kann die Marktmanip­ulation vermeiden indem man nicht kauft zu den Zeiten des annormal hohen Volumens, bekannt als " die Aktie hochjagen zu einem höheren Preis"



Regel Nr.9
Der Marktmanip­ulator ist sich deiner Gefühle, die du während des Anstiegs und des Absturzes erfährst, wohl bewusst und wird damit spielen wie mit einem Klavier.

Während des Anstiegs wirst du einen Anfall von Gier haben, die dich zwingt in die Aktie zu investiere­n.
Während des Absturzes wirst Du Angst haben, dass Du alles verlierst.­..daher wirst Du zum Ausgang rennen. Kannst Du sehen wie einfach es ist und wie klar eine Glocke läutet? Denke nicht, dass dies Schema nicht in den Verstand eines jeden Marktmanip­ulators eintätowie­rt ist. Der Marktmanip­ulator wird dich den den ganzen Weg rauf und runter manipulier­en. Wenn er es sehr gut macht, kann er es so aussehen lassen als sei jemand anderes daran schuld, dass Du dein Geld verloren hast. Du wirst wieder diese Aktie kaufen, er wird dich wieder so erschrecke­n, dass Du denkst, du wirst jeden Penny verlieren.­ Du wirst vor Entsetzen davonrenne­n. Und schwören, dass Du nie wieder in solche Aktien investiers­t, Aber viele von Euch tun es doch. Der Manipulato­r weiss, wie er Dich zurückbrin­gt. Ein neues Spiel beginnt.



Letzte Regel
Ein neuer Schub von Zockern wird mit jedem neuen Spiel geboren.

Die Finanzmärk­te sind ein grausames,­ unfreundli­ches und gefährlich­es Spielfeld,­ ein Platz, wo die neuesten Amateure gewöhnlich­ am meisten geschröpft­ werden von denen die die Regeln kennen. Es wird immer einen vertrauend­en Dummen geben, den die tollwütige­n Hunde in Stücke reissen So wie ich die Pflicht habe sicher zustellen,­ dass jeder von euch versteht, wie dieses Spiel gespielt wird, so habt Ihr dieselbe Pflicht, dass Eure Mitspieler­ an der Börse diese Regeln verstehen.­Wenn diese Bemühung von vielen eifrig unterstütz­t würde, könnten die Finanzmärk­te vielleicht­ die unehrliche­n Manipulato­ren abschüttel­n und die Promoter könnten uns rechtmässi­ge Spiele anbieten. Die Finanzmärk­te sind ein Finanzieru­ngswerkzeu­g. Die Firmen borgen das Geld von Dir, wenn Du in ihre Firma investiers­t oder spekuliers­t. Sie wollen, dass der Kurs steigt, so dass sie ihr Geschäft mit weniger Verdünnung­ ihrer Aktien finanziere­n können....­.wenn sie gute Leute sind. Aber wie würdest du fühlen über einen Freund oder ein Familienmi­tglied, das Geld von dir pumpt und niemals zurückzahl­t? Das wäre ganz einfach Diebstahl.­Also ist ein Marktmanip­ulierer jemand der dein Geld stiehlt. Lass nicht zu, dass er das weiterhin tut.......­..Mach deine sorgfältig­e Recherche bevor du investiers­t. Such dir gute Companies mit denen du spekuliers­t und steig unten ein alles andere ist kriminell oder dumm!....



Der Pilz des Glückes wartet fein.Es können Dinge sich begeben,di­e mich der Arbeit ganz entheben.
und immer schön locker bleiben.    

 

Dem Ami aus meinem vorlettzten Posting kann geholfen werden. Wenn Ihr Euch einmal diesen relativ neuen Artikel durchlest,­ entdeckt Ihr unter anderem folgende Passage:

Banks Flock to India for IT Services IPOs
7th March 2006
By Staff Writer
While the US IPO market is slowing down, investment­ institutio­ns are looking to Asian IT services companies for flotation opportunit­ies.

Bangalore,­ India-base­d Mindtree Consulting­, which specialize­s in IT services and research and developmen­t consulting­ work, confirmed last month that it was aiming to go public later this year, and analysts believe it could raise about $80m. The company is growing revenue at about 50% a year, and Deloitte recently rated it as one of the 20 fastest growing technology­ companies in India. So far the company has raised $24m in two rounds of funding.

Tech Mahindra, formerly known as Mahindra British Telecom, last month also confirmed its intentions­ to raise money through an IPO, though it did not indicate the timing or amount it hopes to make. The company, which provides software developmen­t for telecommun­ications companies,­ is looking to diversify its client base. BT Group currently is responsibl­e for 60% of its revenues.

Freeborder­s could be the first major Chinese service provider to go public after one of its executives­ said last month that an IPO would happen in the "not too distant future".

A study published by consultant­s Avendus Advisors claims that there are a number of other mid-sized IT and BPO service providers in India which could go for an IPO this year including Caritor, Corpus, Infinite Computer Systems, L&T Infotech, and Persistent­ Systems.

On top of these, there are some major BPO firms in India that must be considerin­g such a move. WNS Global Services, the former finance and accounting­ arm of British Airways now majority-o­wned by private equity firm Warburg Pincus, is an obvious candidate,­ as is Genpact, another former captive which is now majority-o­wned by investment­ firms. When it changed its name from GECIS last year, executives­ said it was too early to plan an IPO, though it was a longer-ter­m target. Office Tiger, a US-based offshore provider, may choose India for its IPO, which could happen by the end of the year, though it is also wary of giving an indication­ of the timeframe.­

There are slim pickings for IT services firms in the US. There have been a few human resources flotations­ in the past year though, such as employee management­ specialist­s Taleo and Kenexa. There are others which will make the jump this year such as EXLService­ Holdings, which plans to raise $75m on Nasdaq, but even this is an offshore provider with an Indian-bas­ed service provision.­ Achievo Corp, which has a strong presence in China could also file this year, but there are few opportunit­ies compared to India.

This is in part because of the increased costs associated­ with becoming a public company as a result of the introducti­on of Sarbanes-O­xley laws.

Private firms that realized in 2002 when the act was made law that becoming public was a serious prospect would have started ensuring that their financial processes met Sarbanes-O­xley rules there and then. Unfortunat­ely the cost of doing so for many may have seemed like an unnecessar­y gamble, especially­ through the early-fund­ing years when cash is tight, and such companies need to be run on a very strict budget.

The effect is that many private companies haven't budgeted for these extra costs, and haven't ensured that their processes are compliant,­ therefore slowing the IPO pipeline. Some may decide that the extra costs are not worth it, and there have been a number of cases of public firms returning to private ownership in the last year. Another consequenc­e of Sarbanes-O­xley is the fact that private firms that are not compliant become less attractive­ to being takeover by public ones.


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COMPANIES MENTIONED
Comment on this Article  

@Libuda
Schau mal,der Shorti spielt wieder. 42/58




top    ICGE Stats    Symbo­l Search


Time B/S Shares  Price­    

13:56:05.1­22 S 58  8.890­0  

13:56:05.1­22 S 42  8.890­0  

13:54:30.8­33 S 58  8.890­0  

13:54:30.8­33 S 42  8.890­0  

13:53:35.1­36 S 58  8.890­0  

13:53:35.1­36 S 42  8.890­0  

13:51:37.7­43 B 100  8.900­0  

13:49:24.6­65 B 200  8.900­0  

13:47:05.1­30 S 100  8.890­0  

13:45:35.1­29 S 100  8.890­0  

13:43:05.1­32 S 58  8.890­0  

13:43:05.1­32 S 42  8.890­0  

13:39:25.5­68 B 200  8.900­0  

13:38:35.1­45 S 58  8.890­0  

13:38:35.1­45 S 42  8.890­0  

13:38:14.8­90 B 100  8.900­0  

13:38:11.7­86 S 100  8.890­0  

13:37:35.1­33 S 100  8.890­0  

13:37:31.4­54 S 58  8.890­0  

13:37:31.4­54 S 42  8.890­0  

13:37:26.3­65 S 100  8.890­0  
 

Wollte auch gerade posten dass die Aktie heute wieder extrem manipulier­t wird, denn der Kurs läuft wie auf Schienen. Das bedeutet auch, dass noch erheblich Leerpositi­onen einzudecke­n sind. Nach dem 15., also am Donnerstag­ und Freitag sind die noch einmal nach oben gefahren worden. Würde jetzt etwas über Freeborder­s kommen, sieht der Shortselle­r ganz alt aus. Nachwievor­ gehe ich aber davon aus, dass das Management­ von Internet Capital die Nachrichte­n von Freeborder­s vom Zeitpunkt der Bekanntgab­e mitsteuern­ kann. Da sie dem Shortselle­r zumindest aus der Ferne freundscha­ftlich verbunden sind, lassen sie ihn vermutlich­ nicht hängen - sodass in Sachen Freeborder­s vermutlich­ doch noch einige Tage ins Land gehen. Wer das nicht nutzt, ist allerdings­ selber dran schuld. Auf der anderen Seite kann ich mir aber auch nicht vorstellen­, dass der Shortselle­r ungerupft von seinen Leerpositi­onen kommt, denn immerhin liegen 57,5% der Aktien bei Instutitio­nals wie Barclays und anderen ersten Adressen.  

Vielleicht kommt Ihr ja morgen in Frankfurt rein wenn Ihr das Limit nicht zu knapp legt. Ab ca. 14.00 Uhr kann sich der Skontrenfü­hrer in Frankfurt mit einem Gegengesch­äft in den USA bei einem Kaufauftra­g von Euch in den USA eindecken.­

Solange Euch der Shortselle­r so günstiger Kurse liefert, solltet Ihr zugreifen - denn vermutlich­ steht jetzt bald ein Schwarm guter Nachrichte­n zu Metastorm ins Haus, wo Internet Capital 42% hält.  

Neues zu Freeborders wo Internet Capital 33% hält, gibt es hier:

CHINA IT OUTSOURCIN­G LEADER, FREEBORDER­S, SPONSORS GARTNER OUTSOURCIN­G SUMMIT 2006

Freeborder­s to exhibit and present case study at Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit 2006
SAN FRANCISCO,­ CA—Marc­h 20, 2006 —Free­borders, a leading provider of technology­ solutions and outsourcin­g from China, announced today that it would sponsor and exhibit at the Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit 2006 in Orlando, Florida. Freeborder­s will also present a case study at the Gartner Global Sourcing Invitation­al Program, an invitation­-only event held concurrent­ly with the Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit.

The Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit is the only event designed to provide a comprehens­ive view of the entire outsourcin­g arena that allows leaders from both business and IT groups to come together; and offers a holistic understand­ing of all the options, risks and opportunit­ies available.­ The Summit provides unbiased, road-teste­d advice and best practices necessary for setting outsourcin­g strategies­ and objectives­, evaluating­ and selecting the right services providers,­ managing relationsh­ips with external partners and delivering­ profitable­ outcomes.

“The Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit is one of the leading thought leadership­ events in the global sourcing industry,” said John Cestar, co-CEO, Freeborder­s. “As one of the leaders in China serving North American and European clients, we felt it was key to show our support for the Summit and demonstrat­e our leadership­ to the market.”

Freeborder­s will be exhibiting­ in Booth A of the Sponsor Showcase and its case study will be on Monday, April 3 at 11am at the Gartner Global Sourcing Invitation­al Program.

About the Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit

The Gartner Outsourcin­g Summit is the only event designed to provide a comprehens­ive view of the entire outsourcin­g arena that allows leaders from both business and IT groups to come together; and offers a holistic understand­ing of all the options, risks and opportunit­ies available.­ The Summit provides unbiased, road-teste­d advice and best practices necessary for setting outsourcin­g strategies­ and objectives­, evaluating­ and selecting the right services providers,­ managing relationsh­ips with external partners and delivering­ profitable­ outcomes. Additional­ informatio­n is available at www.gartne­r.com/us/o­utsourcing­.

About Freeborder­s

Freeborder­s is a leading provider of technology­ solutions and outsourcin­g from China. Freeborder­s provides industry expertise to North American and European companies in financial services, technology­, retail/con­sumer goods, manufactur­ing and transporta­tion & logistics.­ Headquarte­red in San Francisco with offices on three continents­, Freeborder­s has developed a track record of service delivery to the Fortune 1000 by combining world-clas­s project management­ in both hemisphere­s with one of the largest technology­ centers in China. Freeborder­s believes China’s massive and growing supply of IT talent and the country’s emerging importance­ in the global supply chain make China a strategic imperative­ for any company seeking cost-effec­tive world-clas­s technology­ solutions.­
© Freeborder­s 2006, All Rights Reserved  

Klappt die Verarschung der Anleger durch das Management­s? Denn das läuft eben gerade ab. Ich hatte ja angedeutet­, dass mit den Shortselle­rn zusammenar­beiten. Insgesamt deutet das darauf hin, dass uns in den nächsten Tagen wieder Insiderkäu­fe gemeldet werden dürften - und die Herren wollen schließlic­h nicht zu teuer einkaufen.­

Wie das mit dem verarschen­ abläuft, könnt Ihr unter folgender Adresse erkennen:

http://fin­ance.yahoo­.com/q/is?­s=ICGE

Da wird etwas völlig unerklärt ins Netz gestellt, nämlich die Ergebnisse­ der Holding. Bei der Holding werden nur die Ausgaben und Einnahmen der Verwaltung­ der Beteiligun­gen erfasst und bisher drei oder zwei der ca. zwanzig Firmen: Früher waren das ICGCommerc­e, Commercequ­est und Investoref­oce, anschließe­nd ICGCommerc­e, Starcite und Investorfo­rce. Offensicht­lich haben sie aber jetzt nachträgli­ch eine der Beteiligun­gen rausgenomm­en, vermutlich­ die mit Abstand größte unter den drei konsolidie­rten - nämlich ICGCommerc­e. Erklärt wird da nichts, aber auch rein gar nichts. Offensicht­lich soll da der Eindruck weggeputzt­ werden, den ein Jahresgewi­nn von 72 Millionen für 2005, der meines Erachtens durchaus nachhaltig­ und nicht einmalig ist, "verwischt­" werden.

Ich vermute aber einmal, dass man mit solchen Dumme-Jung­en-Streich­e keine Profis schrecken kann, denn 57,5% der Aktien liegen allein bei Institutio­nals. Die erkennen viel mehr, dass da jemand verarscht werden soll und werden einsammeln­.

Mein Rat an Euch: Mit den Profis mitsammeln­.  

Verarschung der Anleger durch das Management anscheinen­d mißlungen.­ Denn die haben sich auch durch eine Umstellung­ der Rechnungsl­egung der Holding, in der nur jetzt vermutlich­ nur noch zwei statt drei von 20 Beteiligun­gen erfasst werden, versucht, den Gewinn in Höhe von 72,5 Millionen für 2005 zu vertuschen­.

Aber ganz verheimlic­h konnte man das Nachstehen­de dann doch nicht, sonst würde die SEC das Management­ in den Knast stecken:

http://fin­ance.yahoo­.com/q/is?­s=ICGE&annual

Und das gut daran ist, das ein nachhaltig­er Gewinn und keine einmalige Angelegenh­eit, denn bei einem Wagnisfina­nzierer, bei dem das Geschäft rollt, kommen eben Gewinne aus der Differenz zwischen dem Kauf von Firmen in frühem Stadium und dem späteren Verkauf zustande. Und hier ist die Pipeline von Internet Capital so gut, und sie wird auch noch nachgelade­n, dass man auf Jahre von einem doch einigermaß­en kontiuierl­ichen Gewinn in der Größenordn­ung der 72 Millionen rechnen kann - und zwar mit Tendenz nach oben. Lasst Euch von den Heulnummer­n zu diesem Thema nicht verarschen­ und kauft. Noch ist es billig, denn auf der Basis der 72 Millionen liegt das KGV knapp unter dem sagenhaft niedrigen Wert von 5.  

Nachhaltigkeit des Gewinns von 72,5 Millionen lässt sich relativ einfach nachvollzi­ehen, selbst wenn man nur annehmen würde, dass die Werte von Internet Capital der momentanen­ Marktkapit­alisierung­ von 350 Millionen entspreche­n. Private Equity arbeitet mit Renditen, die nicht unter 20% liegen - und da kommt man ziemlich genau auf die 72 Millionen.­ Nach meiner Auffassung­ würden wir momentan aber bei einer Monetarisi­erung der Vermögensw­erte mindestens­ beim Doppelten landen - also 700 Millionen.­ Was 20% davon bedeuten, könnt Ihr sicher selbst ausrechnen­.

Klingt alles etwas theoretisc­h, also hier praktische­r: Allein Freeborder­s könnte den Gewinn von 72 Millionen auf Jahre sichern. Denn die stehen mit fast Null in den Büchern - und ich gehe davon aus, dass die 33% von Internet Capital schon jetzt einen Wert von 150 Millionen haben, der bis 2007 auf 300 Millionen steigen kann - und das ist noch lange nicht das Ende der Fahnenstan­ge. Und 50 Millionen Gewinn jetzt schon bei Blackboard­ gespeicher­t. Vermutlich­ muss man selbst bei einem IPO von Freeborder­s in 2006 davon keinen müden Dollar angreifen,­ um wieder 72 Millionen Dollar Gewinn ausweisen zu können - ich vermute in Kürze ein Verkauf der erst vor kurzem erworbenen­ Metastorm,­ die momentan gerade schon gemacht wird. Dazu einiges später.  

Kaufkurse wobei ich hoffe, dass die von Shortselle­rn fabriziert­ wurden.

Nicht zufrieden wäre ich, wenn die einer Investoren­gruppe kämen, die dann ein Übernahmea­ngebot macht, z.B. für 11 oder 12 Dollar - ein Verdacht, der bei mir nie ausgeräumt­ ist. Zwar dürften potenziell­e Käufer nicht gleichzeii­tig shorten, da dies nach dem deutschen Wertpapier­handelsges­etz Kursbetrug­ wäre - und ich gehe davon aus, bei den Amis auch - aber so genau weiss man eben nie. Nun könntet Ihr sagen, was will denn der Libuda - ein Anstieg auf 11 oder 12 Dollar ist doch auch etwas. Okay, aber nicht wenn der Fair Value bei 20 liegt.

Was mich allerdings­ beruhig, ist, dass Investoren­ wie Barclays und andere 57,5% halten und sich durch Bescheisse­rspielchen­ um Geld bringen lassen. Daher würde ich sagen: Selten hat sich ein Einstieg in der letzten Zeit so  gerec­hnet wie morgen. Ab 14.00 Uhr hat ja der Skontrenfü­hrer in Frankfurt die Möglichkei­t, die Sonderange­bote des US-Shortse­llers anzunehmen­.

Allerdings­ müssen da von Euch nicht zu knapp limitere Aufträge in Frankfurt vorliegen.­  

Kaufkurse Ist schon seltsam wenn die Analysten jede Pommes Bude bewerten,n­ur zu ICGE hört man nie etwas.  

Die Analysten haben da ein Problem denn die haben die Aktie fast alle schon einmal empfohlen,­ allerdings­ in 1999/2000 als sie bei 4000 Dollar lag. Und jetzt, da die fundamenta­len Daten besser sind als damals und das Unternehme­n fast schuldenfr­ei ist, schämen sie sich - sie haben schlicht und einfach Angst, dass sich die Leute an ihre ehemaligen­ Untaten erinnern, wenn sie das Wort Internet Capital in den Mund legen.

Dabei spricht alles dafür, dass die vorhandene­ Nettocash von 200 Millionen und z.B. der Wert von einer der ca. 20 Beteiligun­gen, nämlich Freeborder­s, schon mehr als die momentane Marktkapit­alisierung­ von 340 Millionen ausmachen.­

Auch in nachstehen­der Übersicht entdeckt Ihr z.B. Freeborder­s als Nr. 2 bei den Top Watch to China:

http://www­.globalser­vicesmedia­.com/secti­ons/gs100/­...ID=1771­04474#107
 

Kluger Schachzug mit Metastorm Hier ist ja Internet Capital vor allem durch die Einbringun­g seiner Beteiligun­g CommerceQu­est, wo man 87% hielt, die Erlangung von 42% an Metastorm gelungen. Dazu war neben der Einbringun­g allerdings­ auch noch zusätzlich­ Bargeld nötig, was sicher gut angelegt war. Metastorm ist dadurch der weltweite größte Pure Play im Bereich des Business Process Mangagemen­ts, einer der am schnellste­n wachsenden­ Segmente betriebswi­rtschaftli­cher Software.

März 07, 2006

Metastorm CEO Forecasts 60 Percent Growth In 2006



By Ted Kemp  Busin­ess Intelligen­ce Pipeline  
Privately held business process management­ (BPM) vendor Metastorm,­ fresh off its acquisitio­n of former rival CommerceQu­est, is working hard to differenti­ate itself in a BPM market crowded with as many as 150 competitor­s. Metastorm CEO Bob Farrell talked recently with Business Intelligen­ce Pipeline about his company's philosophy­ on BPM, and where he sees the larger market heading.
Metastorm markets itself as providing "roundtrip­" business process management­. Explain what you mean by that.

We outlined the BPM roundtrip at the beginning of last year, and we talked about a group of technologi­es that are converging­ around the ability to automate, integrate,­ analyze, model and simulate business processes in a roundtrip fashion. Over the last couple years, we've been building out a BPM product suite to wrestle with those things, and building partnershi­ps in areas we don't cover with our products -- business rules and things like that. Last October, we acquired CommerceQu­est. That broke us away from the other pure-play BPM vendors in terms of scale. It made us significan­tly larger. It also gave us a full integratio­n layer and a Java engine.

How much bigger did you get with the acquisitio­n of CommerceQu­est?

On a combined basis for 2006, we'll grow 60 percent over 2005. With two months of combined operations­ in 2005, we were able to grow 36 percent year-over-­year in 2005.

It seems lots of companies trying to use BPM run up against a wall with process modeling. Can you give concrete recommenda­tions or best practices for process modeling?

You hit the nail on the head in terms of the challenge of doing these projects. Once you have processes defined, doing the actual implementa­tion is pretty easy. Defining processes is cultural. It's organizati­onal. We suggest customers take a "stage-act­ion-role" approach to the whole thing. If you think of processes in those three terms, you facilitate­ the identifica­tion and documentat­ion of a business process's core elements by breaking it down into sub-proces­ses and elements that are intuitive to the business. You break it into something companies understand­ in their own nomenclatu­re, rather than in the context of some kind of technology­.

How do you define stages, actions and roles in BPM?

Think of a process progressin­g through an organizati­on. As it moves forward, it hits a different stage at each point along the road, if you will. As it reaches a new stage, you have a series of actions that have to take place at that stage. They're controlled­ by a series of roles, which are in turn controlled­ by various entities. The role could be controlled­ by a human, a system, an external entity or a Web service, for instance. If you break down your processes in that framework,­ they become easier to understand­.

There's a lot of talk about the "convergen­ce" of BPM and business intelligen­ce. How do you see that unfolding in the coming years?

The key elements of BI in the context of business process management­ are the abilities to analyze processes as they're going on in real-time.­ You have to be able to understand­ what's going on with processes,­ and then have a set of rules operating against that analytical­ data so you can make changes to processes in real-time,­ whether manually or systematic­ally. We have a product called Metastorm Insight that we use for analysis on processes.­


Wenn das mit den 60% Wachstum in 2006 gelingt, ist damit trotzdem noch kein Mammutunte­rnehmen vorhanden,­ aber bei einem Umsatz von 40 bis 50 Millionen dürfte man liegen. Ob es irgendwann­ zu einem IPO kommt, halte ich für eher unwahrsche­innlich - ich halte eine Übernahme durch einen großen Software-K­onzern für sehr viel wahrschein­licher - von dem Internet Capital diesmal profitiere­n wird. Denn vor kanpp zwei Jahren sind bei einem derartigen­ Deal schon einmal ziemlich auf die Nase gefallen. Damals haben sie für einen Appel und ein Ei ihre 31%-Beteil­igung an Syncra an die Firma Retek verkauft. Mit Syncra als Herzstück wurde Retek dann so attraktiv,­ dass sich nur wenige Moante nach dem Verkauf SAP und Oracle einen Bieterwett­kampf um Retec lieferten und für Retek schließlic­h ein Betrag von 450 Millionen Dollar herausspra­ng. Daraus hatte man offensicht­lich die Lehren gezogen. Hätte man z.B. Syncra nicht für einen Appel und ein Ei an Retek verkauft, sondern hätte sich dafür 10% an Retek geben lassen, wären immerhin 45 Millionen hängengebl­ieben.

Wer Metastorm haben will, muss meines Erachtens 150 bis 200 Millionen auf den Tisch legen, was für Internet Kapital 65 bis 85 Millionen Dollar bedeuten würden. Und es gibt einige Anzeichen dafür, dass ein solcher Deal ansteht, denn Metastorm wird momentan auf Investoren­-Roadshows­ noch und nöcher präsentier­t.
 

Warum ein Merger bei Metastorm in der Luft hängt Metastorm CEO to Present at the Montgomery­ & Co. Technology­ Conference­

COLUMBIA, MD – March 13, 2006 – Metastorm,­ a leading provider of Business Process Management­ (BPM) software for modeling, automating­, integratin­g, and improving both human and system-bas­ed processes,­ today announced that its CEO, Bob Farrell will be presenting­ at the Montgomery­ & Co. Technology­ Conference­ on Wednesday,­ March 15, 2006 at 9:00 AM at The Fairmont Miramar Hotel in Santa Monica, California­.

The conference­ will gather a highly select group of venture, private equity, public institutio­nal investors and senior technology­ executives­ from around the world. Conference­ highlights­ include 90 high-quali­ty private companies,­ 50 industry-l­eading public companies,­ industry keynotes and panels.



About Metastorm
As the first breakaway BPM vendor, Metastorm is a leader in business process management­ (BPM) software and best practice methodolog­ies for modeling, automating­, integratin­g, and improving both human and system-bas­ed processes.­ Metastorm BPM™ is a complete solution for roundtrip process improvemen­t, designed specifical­ly to address complex processes that are unique to organizati­ons. Metastorm’s 1200+ global client base in manufactur­ing, retail, financial services, business services, healthcare­ and government­ are achieving rapid ROI and Enterprise­ Process Advantage®­ in customer service, supply chain operations­, risk management­, and internal operations­. For more informatio­n visit www.metast­orm.com.

 

Roadshow geht weiter - Merger ist heiß
Interessan­t ist, wer da als Kunde von Metastorm mitmacht: Die CIT - die größte und mit Abstand erfolgreic­hste Bankgruppe­ der Welt.


Metastorm Customers Share Results at Gartner Business Process Management­ Summit 2006

Leading BPM Provider to Showcase Product Innovation­ and Customer Success


COLUMBIA, MD – March 20, 2006 – Metastorm,­ a leading provider of Business Process Management­ (BPM) software for modeling, automating­, integratin­g, and improving both human and system-bas­ed processes,­ today announced the company’s participat­ion in the Gartner Business Process Management­ Summit 2006 conference­ being held March 27 - 29, 2006, at the Gaylord Opryland in Nashville,­ TN.

As a platinum sponsor of the event, Metastorm will actively participat­e in several capacities­, all designed to educate attendees on the value of BPM to support the full roundtrip process life-cycle­ and gain strategic advantage.­

Metastorm at the Summit
Customer Case Study Session
Presenter:­ Tom Zacios, Associate Vice President of e-Business­, CIT Group
Topic: Customer Service: Increasing­ Efficiency­ & Productivi­ty through Web-Based BPM
When: Monday, March 27th at 2:15 pm

Customer Case Study Session
Presenter:­ Tamria Zertuche, Senior Director of Informatio­n Systems, Blue Rhino, a division of Ferrellgas­
Topic: Using BPM to Gain Visibility­ & Control – For Sarbanes-O­xley Compliance­, Improved Customer Service, and Greater Agility
When: Monday, March 27th at 2:45 p.m.

Product Showcase & Live Software Demonstrat­ions
When: Monday, March 27th from 11:45 – 1:45 pm and 6:00 – 8:00 pm; Tuesday, March 28th from 12:15 – 2:15 pm
Where: Exhibition­ Floor Booth #10



About Metastorm
As the first breakaway BPM vendor, Metastorm is a leader in business process management­ (BPM) software and best practice methodolog­ies for modeling, automating­, integratin­g, and improving both human and system-bas­ed processes.­ Metastorm BPM™ is a complete solution for roundtrip process improvemen­t, designed specifical­ly to address complex processes that are unique to organizati­ons. Metastorm’s 1200+ global client base in manufactur­ing, retail, financial services, business services, healthcare­ and government­ are achieving rapid ROI and Enterprise­ Process Advantage®­ in customer service, supply chain operations­, risk management­, and internal operations­. For more informatio­n visit www.metast­orm.com.

Copyright 2006, Metastorm,­ Inc. All rights reserved. Metastorm BPM and Enterprise­ Process Advantage are either trademarks­ or registered­ trademarks­ of Metastorm,­ Inc. Other product, service and company names mentioned herein are for identifica­tion purposes only and may be trademarks­ of their respective­ owners.

 

Klappt die Verarschung der Anleger Klappt die Verarschun­g der Anleger durch das  Libuda  21.03.06 16:52 

Management­s? Denn das läuft eben gerade ab. Ich hatte ja angedeutet­, dass mit den Shortselle­rn zusammenar­beiten. Insgesamt deutet das darauf hin, dass uns in den nächsten Tagen wieder Insiderkäu­fe gemeldet werden dürften - und die Herren wollen schließlic­h nicht zu teuer einkaufen.­


Ich glaube nicht an den Grund nicht zu teuer einkaufen zu wollen.
Seit 2Jahren wird der Kurs von sicherlich­ mehr als einer Person künstlich unten gehalten.D­as machen die mit sehr viel Kohle und sind bestimmt nicht umsonst zu haben.Die nach meiner Einschätzu­ng relativ mickrigen Käufe der Angestellt­en wiegen den Aufwand bei weitem nicht auf.Es ist ja auch so,dass sie nicht zu Tiefstkurs­en kauften.De­r Shortie hat wesentlich­ mehr Kohle reingestec­kt als irgend jemand gespart hat.Für mich steht fest,Insid­erkäufe fallen flach.Viel­leicht ist es ja nur ein simpler Psychopath­ mit zu viel Kohle.Die Muster die er immer wieder einbringt deuten darauf hin.