Strike Oil vor dem möglichen Durchbruch
| eröffnet am: | 31.05.07 15:59 von: | permanent |
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ASX Announcement
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
ASX Code: STX 24 April 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Our Strengths • Producer/Explorer with strong cash flow • Track record of discoveries • Geographically diverse portfolio • Highly experienced team • Strong experienced partners • Innovative approach to E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 www.strikeoil.com.au The Company Announcement Officervia electronic lodgement
RAYBURN PROJECT
OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Strike Oil is pleased to provide the following report on its Gulf Coast Rayburn drilling and testing programme.
RAYBURN
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Duncan 3 to be completed for testing and production
(Strike Oil 22.8% Working Interest; Operator Cypress E&P Corporation)
Duncan 3
The well is located approximately midway between the Duncan 1 and Duncan 2 wells.
The Duncan 3 well reached total depth of 12,300 feet (3,749 metres) on 21 April 2008 (Texas time). The mud log and wireline logs indicate the main objective sand in the Middle Wilcox has been penetrated as expected and is gas bearing. Preparations are now underway to complete the interval for testing and ultimately production.
Duncan 2 ST, Gilbert-Freeman 1 and Hlavinka-Duncan 1R
Testing of the Duncan 2 ST, Gilbert Freeman 1 and Hlavinka Duncan 1 wells continued throughout the week as planned.
Duncan 1
The Duncan 1 well continued throughout the week to produce at approximately 10 million cubic feet of gas per day and 260 barrels of oil-condensate per day.
Managing Director’s Comments
Strike Oil’s Managing Director, Simon Ashton, commenting on the progress of the Rayburn Project stated that:-
"The result at Duncan 3 is another step in establishing the Rayburn project as a substantial producer for Strike Oil. We expect the operator to propose another well immediately."
Yours faithfully
SIMON ASHTON
Managing Director
Further information:
Strike Oil Limited
Simon Ashton - Managing Director
T: 08 6464 0400
RAYBURN PROJECT – WHARTON COUNTY
Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745
E: strike@strikeoil.com.au
ASX Announcement
ASX Code: STX 30 April 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Our Strengths • strong cash flow • discoveries • portfolio • • partners • E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 The Company Announcement Officer Australian Stock Exchange Ltd via electronic lodgement U Strike Oil is pleased to provide the following update on its activities in the USA. TEXAS • • • COLORADO • • GULF COAST, TEXAS Rayburn Project – Wharton County (Strike Oil 22.8% Working Interest; Operator Cypress E&P Corporation) Duncan 3 The Duncan 3 well has reached total depth of 12,300 ft (3,749 m), with production casing set to total depth in preparation for completion and testing. The drilling rig was released at 18:00 hrs 26 April 2008 (Texas time). Gilbert Freeman 2 The sixth well in the current drilling program, Gilbert Freeman 2, is due to spud at the weekend. To be drilled to a total depth of 12,200 ft (3,719 m), the well is located approximately 2,300 ft (700 m) northeast of the Duncan 1 location. The Gilbert Freeman 2 well is expected to take approximately 30 days to reach total depth. It is targeting the same Middle Wilcox pay sand encountered in the other wells drilled on the Rayburn structure. Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Duncan 2 ST, Gilbert Freeman 1 and Hlavinka Duncan 1 Testing of the Duncan 2 ST, Gilbert Freeman 1 and Hlavinka Duncan 1 wells continued throughout the week as planned. ROCKY MOUNTAINS, COLORADO Florence Project – Fremont County (Strike Oil 39% Working Interest; Operator Comet Ridge Limited) The operator, Comet Ridge Limited, has advised that a rig has been contracted for an initial two well drilling program. Drilling is set to commence in early May. Please see the attached update by Comet Ridge Limited for further details. Tow Creek/Bear River Project – Routt County (Strike Oil 33.75% - 37.5% Working Interest; Operator Comet Ridge Limited) The operator, Comet Ridge Limited, has advised that Freedom Natural Resources have withdrawn from the proposed farm-in transaction on the Tow Creek and Bear River prospects. The farm-in would have reduced Strike’s working interest in the prospects to Tow Creek – 10% and Bear River - 6.25%. Yours faithfully SIMON ASHTON Managing Director Further information: Strike Oil Limited Simon Ashton - Managing Director T: 08 6464 0400 E:
ASX Announcement
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
ASX Code: STX 02 May 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Our Strengths • Producer/Explorer with strong cash flow • Track record of discoveries • Geographically diverse portfolio • Highly experienced team • Strong experienced partners • Innovative approach to E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 www.strikeoil.com.au The Company Announcement Officervia electronic lodgement
STRIKE OIL SECURES USD 11.7 MILLION DEBT FACILITY
Strike Oil Limited ("Company") is pleased to announce that it has secured a definitive borrowing base facility agreement ("Facility") with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ("CBA"). Under the agreement CBA will make available to the Company a debt facility of USD 11.7 million, to be repaid over a term of five years.
The Facility is a conventional borrowing base arrangement, secured against the Company’s production assets at the Mesquite and Rayburn gasfields located onshore in the Gulf Coast area, Texas.
The facility will be used to fund the Company’s intensive Gulf Coast drilling programme which could see up to a further eight wells drilled by December 2008. The company has the ability to increase the facility limit should additional reserves be recognised at its production assets.
As previously announced the Company’s average monthly production revenues (to Strike Oil’s working interest) for the quarter ended 31 March 2008 were approximately AUD 1.17 million. Based on anticipated production increases and current oil and gas prices, revenues are expected to increase to around AUD 3 million per month by the end of June 2008.
These increased revenues together with the Facility funding will enable the Company to use its existing funds to progress its non-Gulf Coast projects more rapidly with reduced equity capital requirements.
Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745
Strike Oil’s managing director, Simon Ashton, commenting on the Facility, stated:
"The debt facility is a strategic milestone for the Company which reflects well on the maturity of the Company and the quality of its producing assets. The facility will enable Strike Oil to effectively execute its strategy in the Gulf Coast with reduced reliance on equity capital raisings. We are most grateful to CBA for their assistance and co operation in finalising the facility and anticipate building upon our relationship as Strike Oil grows".
Yours faithfully
SIMON ASHTON
Managing Director
Further information:
Strike Oil Limited
Simon Ashton - Managing Director
T: 08 6464 0400
E: strike@strikeoil.com.au
http://www.strikeoil.com.au/media/Hartley__s_Report.pdf
ASX Announcement
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
ASX Code: STX 5 May 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Our Strengths • Producer/Explorer with strong cash flow • Track record of discoveries • Geographically diverse portfolio • Highly experienced team • Strong experienced partners • Innovative approach to E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 www.strikeoil.com.au The Company Announcement Officervia electronic lodgement
RAYBURN PROJECT - OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Strike Oil is pleased to announce the following results at the Rayburn Project in the Gulf Coast Texas:
DUNCAN 2 DOUBLES FIELD PRODUCTION
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Duncan 2 ST tested at stabilised flow rates of 10 million cubic feet (mmcf) of gas per day and 224 barrels of condensate.
Duncan 1 well continues to produce at 10 million cubic feet (mmcf) of gas per day and 260 barrels of condensate.
Rayburn Project production rate effectively doubled.
High gas and oil prices of greater than US$10 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) and US$100 per barrel persist.
(Strike Oil 22.8% Working Interest; Operator Cypress E&P Corporation)
Duncan 2 ST Testing Update
The following flow rates were reported to the local regulator, the Texas Rail Road Commission (TRRC), on the 2 May 2008 (Texas Time). The Middle Wilcox Formation interval is recorded as flowing at a stabilised rate of 10 million cubic feet per day of gas and 224 barrels of condensate per day through a 16/64 inch choke with a flowing tubing pressure of 6,734 psi (pounds per square inch).
The Duncan 2 well production coupled with the Duncan 1 well effectively doubles the field’s production to around 20 million cubic feet per day and 480 barrels of condensate.
Other Rayburn Field Activities
Other field activities are progressing as planned.
Duncan 1
Ongoing production at around 10 mmcfd of gas and 260 bbls of condensate
Gilbert Freeman 1
Ongoing testing of the Middle Wilcox
Duncan 3
Preparations underway for completion and testing of the Middle Wilcox
Hlavinka Duncan 1
Ongoing testing of a shallow secondary target
Gilbert Freeman 2
Well spudded on 3 May and targeting the Middle Wilcox
"This additional outstanding result coupled with the ongoing testing and drilling expectations has resulted in us revising our company mid year (end June 2008) target revenues to Strike Oil to the order of A$3 to $4 million per month".
Yours faithfully
SIMON ASHTON
Managing Director
Further information:
Strike Oil Limited
Simon Ashton - Managing Director
T: 08 6464 0400
E: strike@strikeoil.com.au
Strike Oil’s Managing Director, Simon Ashton, commenting on the results stated that:-
RAYBURN PROJECT – WHARTON COUNTY
Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745
Based upon current gas and oil prices this equates to combined gross revenue from both wells (to the 100% interest) of around US$8 million per month. Strike Oil's Working Interest share is US$1.8 million per month.
Die Ergebnisse -FlowRates- aus dem Rayburn 2 Well sind sehr überzeugend. Bis zur Mitte des Jahres werden nun monatliche Umsätze von 3-4 Mio.$ erwartet.
Die hohen Öl- und Gaspreise werden hier zusätzlich als Katalysator wirken.
Sollten die Flowrates der kommenden Wells aus dem Rayburn Field ähnlich gute Ergebnisse liefern, so werden wir hier schnell eine Kursverdoppelung sehen.
Gruß
Permanent
ASX Announcement
ASX Code: STX 7 May 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 The Company Announcement Officer Australian Stock Exchange Ltd via electronic lodgement MANAGING DIRECTOR ON GULF COAST ACTIVITIES • strong cash flow • discoveries • portfolio • • partners • E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 Please find attached an “Open Briefing” interview on Strike Oil’s Gulf Coast, Onshore Texas activities. Yours faithfully SIMON ASHTON Managing Director Further information: Strike Oil Limited Simon Ashton - Managing Director T: 08 6464 0400 E:
Winter Natural Gas Crunch Possible?NATURAL GAS, STOCKPILES, ENERGYBy Izabella Kaminska,special to CNBC.comCNBC.com| 07 May 2008 | 09:12 AM ET
U.S. natural gas inventories could be at seriously low levels at the start of winter this year, if current rates of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports remain at record lows, a Goldman Sachs report said Wednesday.
The year is already two months into the summer re-fill season when producers traditionally stock up on cheap gas volumes to sell on more profitably in winter, but so far storage facilities have gone unused as prices remain high.
More so, ongoing weakness in US natural gas prices compared with prices in the rest of the world is providing no incentive for LNG cargoes to be directed to the US, leaving imports at record-low levels.
"The US still needs to increase LNG imports and incentivize some fuel switching away from natural gas towards residual fuel oil to bring nat gas inventories to full levels by end of October," the report said.
To achieve higher imports the bank says Nymex natural gas futures futures, currently trading at 28-month highs of more than $11.10 per million British thermal units, will need to rise further to close the gap with international gas prices and the rest of the oil complex in coming months.
If prices fail to rise, it will be hard for U.S. natural gas inventories to reach full levels by the end of the summer, the report said. And U.S. supply could come under pressure if this winter is as severe as 2007, the coldest in 7 years.
Goldman raised its US domestic production outlook for the year by 300 million cubic feet per day, but adds any increase will be offset by an increase in expected U.S. pipeline exports, keeping the supply balance tight.
© 2008 CNBC.com
Die Flowrates von GF1 sind unter den Erwartungen, aus dem Grund gibt der Aktienkurs temporär nach. Das Rayburn Feld entwickelt sich für Strike Oil dennoch immer mehr zur Goldgrube. Die Investoren waren wohl bereits zu verwöhnt. Viel Vergnügen bei der Lektüre.
Permanent
ASX Announcement
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
ASX Code: STX 13 May 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Our Strengths • Producer/Explorer with strong cash flow • Track record of discoveries • Geographically diverse portfolio • Highly experienced team • Strong experienced partners • Innovative approach to E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 www.strikeoil.com.au The Company Announcement Officervia electronic lodgement
RAYBURN PROJECT - OPERATIONAL UPDATE
ANOTHER PRODUCER AT RAYBURN
Strike Oil is pleased to announce
an update of activities at the Rayburn Project in the Gulf Coast, Texas.- •
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Gilbert Freeman 1 well flowed at 3.8 million cubic feet per of gas and 126 barrels of condensate per day.
Rayburn Project now producing around 24 million cubic feet and 600 barrels of condensate per day.
Gilbert Freeman 2 well preparing to log at 7,900 feet (2,408 metres) prior to setting casing.
(Strike Oil 22.8% Working Interest; Operator Cypress E&P Corporation)
Gilbert Freeman 1 Testing Update
The following flow results were reported to the local regulator, Texas Rail Road Commission (TRRC) on the 12 May, 2008 (Texas time). The well tested at a stabilised rate of 3.8 million cubic feet of gas per day and 126 barrels of condensate per day with a flowing tubing pressure of 4,679 psi (pounds per square inch) through a 12/64 inch choke.
The Gilbert Freeman 1 well, coupled with the production from the Duncan 1 and 2 wells, gives a total field production of around 24 million cubic feet per day of gas and 600 barrels of condensate from the three wells. The production from Gilbert Freeman 1 is being sold into the existing facilities.
Gilbert Freeman 2 Drilling Update
The Gilbert Freeman 2 well spudded on the 3 May and has drilled ahead to 7,900 feet (2,408 meters). Current operations on the 12 May (Texas Time) are preparing to run wireline logs prior to setting 9 5/8 inch casing in preparation to drilling ahead to the primary Middle Wilcox Formation objective. The well is programmed to a total depth of 12,200 feet (3,719 meters).
Gas shows have been recorded in drill cuttings and mud logs in the Cook Mountain Formation, a secondary objective. The significance of these shows will be further evaluated by wireline logs.
The well is located 2,330 feet (710 metres) from the Gilbert Freeman 1 well and is primarily targeting the same Middle Wilcox sands that are now on production from the Duncan 1, 2 and Gilbert Freeman 1 wells.
Strike Oil's Managing Director, Simon Ashton, commenting on the latest test result stated that:-
"Another substantial flow rate at Rayburn from the Gilbert Freeman 1 well demonstrates the continuing success of the drilling and testing program to date. The drilling program is ongoing and we now look forward to the test results from the Duncan 3 well and drilling results from the Gilbert Freeman 2 well in the Middle Wilcox over the next few weeks."
Yours faithfully
SIMON ASHTON
Managing Director
Further information:
Strike Oil Limited
Simon Ashton - Managing Director
T: 08 6464 0400
E: strike@strikeoil.com.au
RAYBURN PROJECT – WHARTON COUNTY
Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745
AFX
| 16 May 2008 | 02:33 PM ET
HOUSTON (AP) - The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States rose by 16 this week to 1,862.
Of the rigs running nationwide, 1,471 were exploring for natural gas and 381 for oil, Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday. Ten were listed as miscellaneous.
A year ago, the rig count stood at 1,744.
Of the major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas added 13 rigs, while California, Wyoming and Alaska each added two and Colorado added one rig.
Oklahoma lost five rigs and Louisiana lost one.
Baker Hughes has tracked rig counts since 1944. The tally peaked at 4,530 in 1981, during the height of the oil boom. The industry posted several record lows in 1999, bottoming out at 488.
http://www.viessmann.de/de/...eRef.File.tmp/pr-zukunftssicherheit.pdf
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Interaktive Opec-Übersichtskarte
Devisenbericht
Australischer Dollar erreicht 24-Jahres-Hoch
Der australische Dollar hat in seiner Rally zum US-Dollar den höchsten Stand seit 24 Jahren erreicht. Zeitweise handelte der Markt die australische Währung mit 95,70 US-Cent. Angetrieben von Mittelzuflüssen aus dem florierenden Rohstoffgeschäft legte der australische Dollar in diesem Jahr 8,7 Prozent zum Greenback zu.
HB FRANKFURT. Geht die Hausse am Rohstoff-Weltmarkt weiter, dürfte die Währung Australiens, des wichtigen Exporteurs von Gold, Kohle und Mineralerzen, weiter an Wert gewinnen. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group sieht den Australien-Dollar bereits auf die Kursparität zum US-Dollar zusteuern.
Zum Euro erholte sich der US-Dollar etwas. Die Frühindikatoren für die US-Wirtschaft legten den zweiten Monat in Folge zu. Dies bestärkte die Hoffnung, dass sich die amerikanische Konjunktur im zweiten Halbjahr nicht weiter eintrübt und die US-Notenbank den Leitzins nicht weiter senkt, um die Wirtschaft zu stützen. Der US-Dollar gewann bis zum Nachmittag 0,4 Prozent auf 1,5516 je Euro. Weitere Hinweise auf die Konjunkturentwicklung dürfte der Monatsbericht zu den Hausverkäufen in den USA bringen, der am Freitag ansteht. Ökonomen warnen, dass die Daten eine weitere Verschärfung der Eigenheimkrise signalisieren könnten. Kommt es so, dürfte der Euro wieder Oberwasser gewinnen.
China meldet die Abschaltung von 32 Kohlekraftwerken aufgrund von Brennstoffknappheit. Hier lohnt ein Blick auf die hundertprozentige Strike Oil Tochter Hybrid Energy. Das Unternehmen hat den unrsprünglich für Anfang 2008 geplanten Börsengang verschoben und sucht nun nach alternativen Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten. Dabei spielt es für den Strike Oil Aktionär keine Rolle ob ein strategischer Investor aus der Energiebranche oder ein Finanzinvestor einsteigt, wichtig ist es den Wert dieser Besitzung ins Zentrum der Betrachtung zu rücken. Mit einem Teilverkauf zur weiteren Projektfinanzierung würde Hybrid Engery einen Preis, einen für den Investor offensichtlichen Wert erhalten.
Strike Oil ist ein sehr spekulatives Investment somit nichts für schwache Nerven. Der kommerzielle Durchbruch scheint jedoch gelungen. Geduld sollte sich auszahlen.
Nichts für den schnellen Zocker
Permanent
ASX Announcement
Australian Stock Exchange Ltd
ASX Code: STX 21 May 2008 Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745 Our Strengths • Producer/Explorer with strong cash flow • Track record of discoveries • Geographically diverse portfolio • Highly experienced team • Strong experienced partners • Innovative approach to E&P Strike Oil Limited Level 9, Wesfarmers House 40 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000 Tel: 08 6464 0400 www.strikeoil.com.au The Company Announcement Officervia electronic lodgement
RAYBURN PROJECT - OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Strike Oil is pleased to announce
an update of activities at the Rayburn Project in the Gulf Coast, Texas.GILBERT FREEMAN 2 TO DRILL OBJECTIVE IN COMING WEEKS
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Gilbert Freeman 2 well intermediate casing and liner set
Gilbert Freeman 2 well to drill the primary objective in next 1 - 2 weeks
Rayburn production continues at rates near 24 million cubic feet and 600 barrels of condensate per day
(Strike Oil 22.8% Working Interest; Operator Cypress E&P Corporation)
Gilbert Freeman 2 Drilling Update
The Gilbert Freeman 2 well on the 20 May (Texas Time) was preparing to drill ahead at 9,000 feet (2,743 metres). The well is expected to drill the primary Middle Wilcox Formation objective in the next 1–2 weeks. The well is programmed to a total depth of 12,200 feet (3,719 metres).
During the past week the 9 5/8 inch casing was set at 7,900 feet and a 7 5/8 inch liner was set over the interval 7,575-9,000 feet (2,309-2,743 metres) as planned.
The well is located 2,330 feet (710 metres) from the Gilbert Freeman 1 well and is primarily targeting the same Middle Wilcox sands that are now on production from the Duncan 1, 2 and Gilbert Freeman 1 wells.
Rayburn Production
The Duncan 1 and 2 wells and the Gilbert Freeman 1 well continue to produce at a total near 24 million cubic feet of gas and 600 barrels of condensate per day.
Yours faithfully
SIMON ASHTON
Managing Director
Further information:
Strike Oil Limited
Simon Ashton - Managing Director
T: 08 6464 0400
E: strike@strikeoil.com.au
RAYBURN PROJECT – WHARTON COUNTY
Strike Oil Limited ABN 59 078 012 745
Why Goldman's Oil Guru Predicts a 'Super Spike'MURTI, GOLDMAN SACHS, OIL, $100, $200, SUPER SPIKEBy Louise StoryThe New York TimesThe New York Times| 21 May 2008 | 04:20 AM ET
Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel.
Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient.
An analyst at Goldman Sachs , Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.
Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. Others disagree, arguing that prices could abruptly tumble if speculators in the market rush for the exits. But the grim calculus of Mr. Murti’s prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon.
That would be fine with Mr. Murti, who owns not one but two hybrid cars. “I’m actually fairly anti-oil,” says Mr. Murti, who grew up in New Jersey. “One of the biggest challenges our country faces is our addiction to oil.”
Mr. Murti is hardly alone in predicting higher oil prices. Boone Pickens, the oilman turned corporate raider, said Tuesday that crude would hit $150 this year. But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial.
Experts disagree over the supply of oil, the demand for it and whether recent speculation in the commodities markets has artificially raised prices. As an energy analyst at Citigroup, Tim Evans, reportedly put it, trading commodities these days is like “sticking your hand in a blender.”
Whatever the case, oil analysts like Mr. Murti have suddenly taken on the aura that enveloped technology analysts in the 1990s.
“It’s become a very fashionable area to write about,” said Kevin Norrish, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital, which began predicting high oil prices around the same time as Goldman. “And to try to get attention from people, people are coming out with all sorts of numbers.”
This was not always the case. In the 1990s, oil research was a sleepy area at banks. Many analysts assumed oil prices would hover near $15 to $20 a barrel forever. If prices rose much above those levels, they figured, consumers would start conserving, suppliers would raise production, or both, causing prices to decline.
But around the turn of the century, oil company after oil company started missing predicted production. Mr. Murti, who covers oil companies like ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy, decided to study the oil spikes of the 1970s.
Since starting his career at Petrie Parkman & Company, a Denver-based investment firm acquired by Merrill Lynch in 2006, he had been conservative in his calls on oil. But by 2004, he concluded the world was headed for a long supply shock that would push prices through the roof. That summer, as oil traded for about $40 a barrel, Mr. Murti coined what has become his signature phrase: super spike.
The following March, he drew attention by predicting prices would soar to $105, sending shock waves through the market. Angry investors questioned whether Goldman’s own oil traders benefited from the prediction. At Goldman’s annual meeting, Henry M. Paulson Jr., then the bank’s chief executive and now Treasury secretary, found himself defending Mr. Murti.
“Our traders were as surprised as everyone else was,” Mr. Paulson reportedly said. “Our research department is totally independent. Our trading departments have no say about this.”
Over time, Mr. Murti was proved right again. Oil crossed $100 in February. Mr. Murti’s forecasts now feed into many of Goldman’s economic and corporate forecasts, affecting research of companies like Ford and Procter & Gamble. His research is distributed widely among investors.
“Even if you disagree with their views, the problem is that Goldman does carry so much credibility,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president for global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA. “There are a lot of traders who are going to buy based on their reports.”
His sudden fame unsettles Mr. Murti. He rarely grants interviews, citing concerns about privacy, and he declined to be photographed for this article. He is not the bank’s only gas prognosticator: Jeffrey R. Currie predicts oil prices out of London.
Mr. Murti, for his part, discounts suggestions that his reports affect market prices. “Whenever an analyst upgrades a stock or downgrades a stock, sometimes you get a reaction that day, but beyond a day, fundamentals win out,” he said.
Mr. Murti falls into the camp of oil analysts who believe that supply is likely to remain tight because of geopolitical factors. These analysts predict higher prices because production is declining in non-OPEC countries like Britain, Norway and Mexico.
The analysts who predict lower prices say there are supplies of oil that the bullish analysts are missing. “This year will be a year in which supply will be put into the market by stealth by OPEC and by countries we call black-hole countries,” said Edward L. Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. China is one example, he said.
But while oil and gas prices have been rising for a while now, Americans have only just begun to reduce gasoline consumption, so their efforts to conserve have not dragged down oil prices.
“The fact that the U.S. gasoline demand can be down and that the U.S. gasoline consumer is no longer driving world oil prices is a monumental event,” Mr. Murti says. He spends most of his time talking to money managers and analysts, many of whom keep asking him if oil prices will stay high if speculators abandon the market, and says he applauds investors for driving up oil prices, since that will spur investment in alternative sources of energy.
High prices, he says, “send a message to consumers that you should try your best to buy fuel-efficient cars or otherwise conserve on energy.” Washington should create tax incentives to encourage people to buy hybrid cars and develop more nuclear energy, he said.
Of course, if lawmakers heed his advice, oil analysts like him might one day be a thing of the past. That’s fine with Mr. Murti.
“The greatest thing in the world would be if in 15 years we no longer needed oil analysts,” he says.
Copyright © 2008 The New York Times
Paulson on Oil: Don't Blame SpeculatorsHENRY PAULSON, ECONOMY, OIL, COMMODITIES, REAL ESTATE, HOUSING, POLITICS, BILL, HOUSING BILL, CHRIS DODD, REBATES, TRADE, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, U.S. DOLLAR, CURRENCIES, PROTECTIONISMBy Natalie Erlich,News AssociateCNBC.com| 22 May 2008 | 05:55 PM ET
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told CNBC Thursday that rising oil prices are not driven by market speculation but instead reflect tight supplies and growing global demand.
"There aren't easy short-term solutions," he said. "But it's about increasing the supply over the longer term and developing new sources of energy."
However, the Treasury secretary emphasized that the long-term economic fundamentals are strong, and the United States remains competitive globally.
"We've got some significant problems today, in the short-term, but I don't go to any country that there are not many more problems than we have in the U.S.," he said. "So as I look at it, the U.S. workers compare very favorably everywhere else in terms of productivity." (For the entire CNBC interview with Paulson, click on interview at left.)
However, Paulson cited a need to bolster training and education of the U.S. workforce.
He also insisted that the United States has a strong dollar policy.
"The long-term strength [of the U.S. economy] is going to be reflected in the value of our currency," he said. "Our policy has got to be a policy that's going to increase confidence in the U.S. economy. Right now we're in a tough patch."
While turmoil in the credit markets has calmed since March, Paulson said, the biggest risk to the economy remains housing.
He also praised Congress' recent efforts to create an independent regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , which control some 80 percent of U.S. mortgage origination, he said.
"A strong regulator will really add to the confidence surrounding these organizations and the secondary mortgage market," he said. "That ultimately means lower rates and more access to mortgage financing, which I think is going to be helpful in shortening the correction in the housing market."
Auch scheint das Interesse an der Tochter HybridEnergy zuzunehen.
Die Gaspreise steigen immer weiter und tragen damit ebenso zur steigenden Erlösen bei.
Gruß
Permanent
http://www.adelaide.edu.au/aripl/news/docs/hybridenergy.pdf
Dieses ist allerdings noch Zukunftsmusik (langfristig), zunächst einmal stehen die kommenden Daten aus dem Rayburn Field im Mittelpunkt des Anlegerinteresse.
Gruß
Permanent
anstehen. Einfach anschauen.
Oder ein Vorzeichen dafür, dass irgendwelche Börsenblätter o. ä. dran sind, oder wie siehst Du das?
Morgen wird es wohl das wöchentliche Update mit neune FlowRates geben. Hier wird mit Spannung die FlowRate der nächsten Well erwartet. Ebenso sind Nachrichten von den Töchtern CometRidge zum Florence Oilfield sowie von Hybrid Energy zur weiteren Firmenentwicklung überfällig.
Beide Themen habe ich hier in den letzten Postings angesprochen.
Schon im kommenden Monat Juni sollte Strike Oil aus den laufenden Projekten Monatsumsätze von ca. 4 Mio. erzielen können. Bis zum Jahresende ist durchaus noch eine Verdopplung möglich.
Die Finanzierung für eine Beschleunigung der laufenden Projekte steht ebenfalls zu Verfügung.
Vor einigen Wochen gab es übgrigens einen interessanten Analystenreport zu Strike Oil. Der Link hierzu befindet sich in diesem Thread.
Gruß
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