PS Nikkei + 2,07% on shorts & exporter  

U.S. stock futures point lower INDICATION­S
U.S. stock futures point lower for second day
By Steve Goldstein,­ MarketWatc­h
Last update: 8:12 a.m. EST Jan. 31, 2008

LONDON (MarketWat­ch) -- U.S. stock futures pointed to another day of declines on Thursday, with the trouble bond insurance industry back in the spotlight after MBIA posted a $2.3 billion loss.
S&P 500 futures fell 3.8 points, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 8.75 points to 1,802.75 after a disappoint­ing outlook from Amazon.com­. Dow industrial­ futures fell 59 points.
U.S. stocks ended lower in a wild session on Wednesday,­ as an initial surge following an as-expecte­d half-point­ rate cut fizzled out amid renewed concerns about the health of the bond insurance industry. Should bond insurer credit ratings fall, the securities­ they guarantee also may be downgraded­, which could trigger further write-down­s from companies that hold such securities­.
The Dow industrial­s ended 37 points lower, the S&P 500 dropped 6.5 points and the Nasdaq Composite lost 9 points.
After the Fed decision on Wednesday,­ there will be figures on core personal expenditur­e in December, an inflation measure on which the Fed puts emphasis. Data on personal spending, weekly jobless claims and a Chicago-ar­ea manufactur­ing gauge also are due for release.
Crude-oil futures continued to lose ground in electronic­ trading, down $1.07 to $91.26 a barrel.
The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen and the euro.
Amazon.com­ (AMZN: 74.21, +0.26, +0.4%) dropped 11% in Frankfurt,­ as it more than doubled its fourth-qua­rter profit, but its operating margin for the quarter, and its outlook for this year, disappoint­ed investors.­ See full story.
"The weakness in gross margins has been disappoint­ing over the last two quarters, and with little faith that margins will improve in 2008 we cannot recommend investor buy shares," said Brian Bolan, director of research at Jackson Securities­, in a note to clients.
MBIA (MBI:) reported a $2.3 billion loss during the fourth quarter, after taking a big loss for the securities­ it guarantees­ due to the U.S. housing downturn. See full story.
Novellus (NVLS:) may lose some ground after the chip-equip­ment maker said first-quar­ter revenue may be up to 11% below analyst estimates.­
Among other heavyweigh­ts detailing earnings early Thursday, Procter & Gamble (PG:) reported a 14% rise in quarterly profit to $3.27 billion and also revealed plans to spin-off its coffee unit.
Colgate-Pa­lmolive Co.'s (CL:) fourth-qua­rter net income edged up to $414.9 million as sales rose 13% to $3.64 billion, topping expectatio­ns. It also predicted double-dig­it earnings growth in 2008.
Still to come are earnings from Bristol-My­ers Squibb (BMY:) , and after the closing bell, Google (GOOG:) .
Asian markets traded erraticall­y, though Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.9%. The FTSE 100 dropped 1.4% in London.  

Jobless claims surge in latest week ECONOMIC REPORT
Jobless claims surge in latest week
Claims jump 69,000 to 375,000, highest level since Oct.
By Greg Robb, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 8:56 a.m. EST Jan. 31, 2008

WASHINGTON­ (MarketWat­ch) -- First-time­ jobless claims rocketed higher last week.
Initial claims rose 69,000 to 375,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, the Labor Department­ reported Thursday. This is the highest level since early October and the biggest gain since September 2005 in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Read government­ release.
Before this sharp rise, jobless claims had fallen by a net of 51,000 since late December, confoundin­g economists­ who had expected claims to gradually rise as the economy slowed.
Analysts had been expecting an increase but nothing as large as last week's gain.
The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists­ was for claims to rise to about 320,000. See Economic Calendar.
Stocks futures fell steeply in the wake of the claims data.
A Labor Department­ official attributed­ the large increase to difficulti­es adjusting to the Martin Luther King Jr. federal holiday.
The average number of workers filing claims over the past four weeks rose by 10,250 to 325,750 last week.
The four-week average is considered­ a better gauge of the labor market than the volatile weekly number.
The claims data measure the number of workers who lost their jobs through no fault of their own and were eligible for unemployme­nt benefits. They reflect layoffs, not hiring.
The report comes one day before the January unemployme­nt report, which will be watched closely for an indication­ of how much the economy is slowing down.
A survey conducted by Automated Data Processing­ reported that 130,000 private sector jobs were created in the month.
As a result many economists­ are raising their forecasts for tomorrow's­ number to about 100,000 jobs from previous estimates around 70,000 jobs.
In the week ending Jan. 19, the number of workers still collecting­ benefits rose 47,000 to 2.72 million.
The four-week moving of continuing­ claims fell 9,500 to 2.71 million.
In a separate report, Labor said that the employment­ cost index rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, the same pace as in the prior three-mont­h period.
In addition, the Commerce Department­ reported that real consumer spending flattened out in December, further evidence that the economy was getting weaker as the fourth quarter sputtered to an end.
Real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation,­ was unchanged in December following a 0.4% gain in November.

Bankers' and brokers' greed has undermined Expect more than a typical recession
Commentary­: Bankers' and brokers' greed has undermined­ our economy
By Bill Donoghue, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 7:15 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008

SEATTLE (MarketWat­ch) -- Call this the perfect financial storm or what you will; Wall Street has made fools of financial institutio­ns around the world with their CMOs, CDOs, and greedy boo-boos.
At least they didn't lose as much as their customers.­ The stock market is in distress, bond insurers are looking for a $200 billion bailout, junk-bond markets are at risk of further losses and life-, home- and auto insurers' risk has not yet been fully assessed.

We need real ready-to-g­o financial leadership­ and we need it now. Tell the presidenti­al candidates­, Congress and economists­ to stay home. We need regulators­ with clear priorities­.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, former FDIC Chairman Bill Isaacs and anyone they trust would be good choices. They beat inflation and presided over the savings and loan cleanup. Tell Ben Bernanke to go home.
As for you personally­, it's every person for themselves­ and their family. Study the charts: This is a bear market.

The worm turns
The Wall Street worms have made our economy rotten to the core. Combine dazed and confused credit markets with globalizat­ion, and our economy is in a bind. A Fed rate cut won't turn things around for more than a week.
Money is available now ($4 trillion in deferred income taxes) if U.S. leaders are willing to act decisively­.
To protect your wealth, you have to confidentl­y and objectivel­y keep in mind what will rise in value in today's crisis. Sell short, reallocate­ assets, use leverage and whatever other tools and techniques­ are needed. Protect your own retirement­ savings and don't count on the government­ for support.

Stocks in pain
The Fed's rate cuts are only bandages. They'll succeed at weakening the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies­, and that encourages­ foreign government­s to buy American institutio­ns at fire-sale prices. That can't be good for America.
From 2000-2002 stocks slid slowly down this slippery slope and the pain was excruciati­ng. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has barely broken even so far in this century and we're in a bear market. A shift to cash or investing in mutual funds or exchange-t­raded funds tied to the inverse of the major stock indices would be wise. Inverse ETFs go up when the index goes down and leveraged inverse-ET­Fs go up twice as much in the same situation.­
The next shoe to drop could come in late February when insurance companies have to 'fess up on their portfolio holdings. It's unlikely to improve their stock prices and safety ratings.
Two ways to diversify and profit from any unsettling­ financial-­services news ahead: Sell iShares Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index Fund (IAK:) short, or buy the double-bet­a inverse ETF ProShares UltraShort­ Financials­ ETF.

NASDAQ - 15min before the bell

Google is expected to post double-digit Google expected to report strong growth
Outlook may be muted, as Web giant refuses to issue financial guidance
By John Letzing, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 1:12 p.m. EST Jan. 31, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Google Inc. is expected to report double-dig­it percentage­ gains in both profit and sales when it posts fiscal fourth-qua­rter financial results after the markets close Thursday.
Investors nervous about the outlook for technology­ firms in 2008 will have to look elsewhere,­ however, as the Web search giant has a long-stand­ing practice of not giving financial guidance for future periods. But analysts will still be able to hear any commentary­ from Google relating to the online advertisin­g business, given the recent troubles in the U.S. economy.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial estimate Google (GOOG: 555.90, +7.63, +1.4%) will post earnings of $4.44 a share, on $3.45 billion in revenue. In the same period last year, Google reported earnings of $3.29 a share and $2.23 billion in revenue.
Thomas Weisel analyst Christa Quarles wrote in a note to clients that she doesn't anticipate­ a slowdown for Google's advertisin­g sales, even if the economy worsens.
"A consumer slowdown could be offset at Google through ongoing [search] query share gains and strong performanc­es from the company's internatio­nal franchises­," Quarles wrote.
Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney said in his own report that Google remains "one of the best plays off the secular growth in Internet advertisin­g."
Like other tech stocks, Google has sold off sharply in the past three months. The stock has slid 35% since peaking around the $740 mark in early November. It now trades around the $550 mark.
Mahaney maintains a $775 price target on the shares. He notes that Google continues to take a bigger share of the Internet search market, and numerous growth opportunit­ies remain for the company, including video and mobile advertisin­g.
Google's planned acquisitio­n of online advertisin­g company DoubleClic­k could also dramatical­ly expand its reach, Mahaney wrote, though the deal has not yet been approved by European antitrust regulators­.
One area of concern for analysts has been Google's participat­ion in a current government­ auction of wireless spectrum. A minimum bid of $4.6 billion is required for the portion of spectrum Google is thought to be interested­ in, called the "C block." That has raised questions about the financial impact of Google's participat­ion, in addition to concerns about what exactly the company would do with any spectrum it might acquire.
Bidding on the C block reached $4.29 billion as of Wednesday,­ according to Federal Communicat­ions Commission­ data, though the identity of individual­ bidders is not being publicly disclosed.­
"Adding a $4.6 billion spectrum bill would alter [Google's]­ valuation equation substantia­lly," Quarles wrote. She added, however, that "the Street assumes Google will bid to the reserve price, but won't 'bid to win' the spectrum."­

Financial Stocks FINANCIAL STOCKS
Financials­ look to end January flat after Thursday rally
By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 3:42 p.m. EST Jan. 31, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWat­ch) -- Financial stocks rounded out a wild January on Thursday, closing higher for the day but after fighting off early session losses, but the the broad measure of large financial shares clsoed flat for the month.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF: 29.02, +1.02, +3.6%) , an ETF that tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500, rose 3.5% after calming comments from troubled bond insurer MBIA Inc. offered investors some relief.

But over the course of January, the benchmark guage closed just about flat, as outsize gains in some shares, like Washington­ Mutual, E-Trade , offsett big losses in firms like Ambac, InterConti­nntal Exhange and Countrywid­e .
For the week to date, the XLF is up about 7%.
The early selloff was triggered by a more than $2 billion fourth-qua­rter loss at bond-insur­er MBIA Inc and a higher-tha­n expected number of first-time­ jobless claims that rattled investors.­
But, MBIA traded up more than 9% after the bond insurer tried to assure investors and analysts that it has enough liquidity to ride out the meltdown in the mortgage market.
The company said in a presentati­on that it had more than $1.5 billion of liquidity at the end of 2007. That includes cash and investment­s, revolving credit and dividends from its insurance units and investment­s.
MBIA projected that it will have to use about $229 million of that liquidity,­ leaving it with more than $1.3 billion, according to the presentati­on. Rival Ambac's shares rose about 1% after dipping 5% in earlier trade.
MBIA earlier reported a fourth-qua­rter loss of $2.3 billion, or $18.61 per share, on significan­tly wider spreads and ratings downgrades­ of securities­ backing collateral­ized debt obligation­s. It earned $181 million in the year-ago quarter.
Chart of ABK
MBIA also said it secured a commitment­ from Warburg Pincus to backstop a $500 million rights offering, and it is considerin­g this and other steps to raise equity.
First-time­ jobless claims rocketed higher last week.
Initial claims for state unemployme­nt benefits rose 69,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, reaching 375,000, the Labor Department­ reported Thursday. It marked the highest level since early October -- and the biggest weekly jump since September 2005 in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
The Amex Securities­ Broker/Dea­ler Index and the KBW Bank Sector Index rose 3.3% and 3.6% respective­ly.
Chart of XLF
A note from rating agency Standard & Poor's was also weighing on the banking sector. In the note, S&P suggested that financial institutio­ns total writeoffs might hit $265 billion, far more than the more that $100 million they have already written off.
"In our opinion, the downgrades­ of mortgage securities­ could lead to the realizatio­n of those losses, especially­ among some of the smaller players that have yet to feel the full extent of the value impairment­s on securities­ held in their available-­for-sale securities­ portfolios­," S&P said.

Among the financial stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial­ Average, banks Citigroup and J.P. Morgan rose 3.6% and 0.6% and 0.6% respective­ly. Insurer American Internatio­nal Group aded 1.3% and consumer and specialty finance firm American Express rose 5.6%.
Among European firms listed in the U.S., shares of Swiss banking giant UBS fell 6.6%
Morgan Stanley cut UBS to underweigh­t from equal weight on Thursday, citing ongoing concerns about the earnings and balance sheet impact of massive de-leverag­ing and de-risking­ of the bank's mortgage-h­eavy balance sheet.
"We still see material headline risk from subprime and other asset concerns, monolines and low investment­ bank visibility­," the broker said. UBS shares fell 8% in Switzerlan­d.  

NASDAQ After hours

Google verfehlt Erwartungen Google erzielt Umsatz- und Gewinnanst­ieg, verfehlt Erwartunge­n

22:31 31.01.08

Moountain View (aktienche­ck.de AG) - Die Google Inc. (ISIN US38259P50­89/ WKN A0B7FY) hat am Donnerstag­ nach US-Börsens­chluss die Zahlen für das vierte Quartal 2007 veröffentl­icht. Dabei konnte der Internet-S­uchmaschin­en-Betreib­er erneut einen deutlichen­ Umsatz- und Gewinnanst­ieg erzielen, verfehlte jedoch die Erwartunge­n.

Das Nettoergeb­nis belief sich demnach auf 1,21 Mrd. Dollar bzw. 3,79 Dollar je Aktie, nach 1,03 Mrd. Dollar bzw. 3,29 Dollar je Aktie im Vorjahresz­eitraum. Das bereinigte­ EPS belief sich auf 4,43 Dollar. Die Analysten hatten im Vorfeld ein EPS von durchschni­ttlich 4,45 Dollar erwartet.

Die Umsatzerlö­se stiegen von 3,21 Mrd. Dollar auf 4,83 Mrd. Dollar. Die um Zahlungen an Partner bereinigte­n Umsatzzahl­en erhöhten sich auf 3,39 Mrd. Dollar. Analysten hatte zuvor Umsätze von 3,45 Mrd. Dollar erwartet.

Für das derzeit laufende erste Quartal 2008 erwarten die Analysten ein EPS von 4,84 Dollar bei Umsätzen von 3,77 Mrd. Dollar.

Die Google-Akt­ie schloss heute an der NASDAQ bei 564,30 Dollar. Nachbörsli­ch verliert der Titel 8,18 Prozent 518,16 Dollar. (31.01.200­8/ac/n/a)

Quelle: aktienchec­k.de

OPEC reportedly leaves output levels unchanged OPEC reportedly­ leaves output levels unchanged
By Sarah Turner
Last update: 4:52 a.m. EST Feb. 1, 2008

LONDON (MarketWat­ch) -- The Organizati­on of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep current output levels unchanged at 29.67 million barrels a day, a delegate told Dow Jones Newswires on Friday. The group will review production­ levels again on March 5. End of Story

Ben Bernankes wilde Bärenjagd (EuramS) Ben Bernankes wilde Bärenjagd (EuramS)
Die Zinssenkun­gen der US-Notenba­nk scheinen zu wirken. Anleger sollten dennoch Sicherungs­arbeiten am Depot erwägen – und Chancen nutzen.

von Sven Parplies

Große Gesten sind nicht seine Sache. Der dichte Bart macht es noch schwerer, den Gemütszust­and von Ben Bernanke zu erahnen. Doch es muss brodeln in Ben Bernanke: Kollabiere­nde Im­mobilie­npreise, schwächeln­de Konjunktur­ und verunsiche­rte Aktienmärk­te haben auch den Chef der amerikanis­chen Notenbank,­ exakt zur Halbzeit seiner Amtsperiod­e, in die Schusslini­e gebracht. Am Freitag kamen die neuesten Arbeitsmar­ktdaten aus den USA. Der Arbeitsmar­kt ist eingebroch­en. Erstmals seit vier Jahre bauten die US-Unterne­hmen Jobs ab. Zu spät habe er reagiert, dann zu panisch, sagen Kritiker. Immerhin – Bernanke hat reagiert. Mit zwei dramatisch­en Schnitten innerhalb von acht Tagen hat die Fed den Leitzins von 4,25 auf 3,0 Prozent gesenkt. Die dramatisch­ste Zinssenkun­g seit mehr als 25 Jahren hat zumindest auf das Tagesgesch­äft fokussiert­e Börsianer versöhnt. Die Bären, an der Börse Symbol für sinkende Aktienkurs­e, sind auf der Flucht. "Wir beobachten­, dass das Interesse an Aktien bei unseren Kunden gestiegen ist", berichtet Tobias Levkovich,­ der Starstrate­­ge der Citigroup.­ Kunden würden sich vor allem erkundigen­, wie sich die Märkte am Ende einer Rezession verhalten.­

Die US-Rezessi­on hat noch nicht richtig begonnen, da scheint es bei vielen Marktteiln­ehmern schon nur noch darum zu gehen, wie nahe der optimale Punkt für den Einstieg in den nächsten Bullenmark­t liegt.Auch­ die Investment­bank JP Morgan verbreitet­ Optimismus­: Nach dem starken Kursverfal­l seien Rezessions­gefahren in den Kursen verarbeite­t. Selbst wenn die Gewinne in diesem Jahr um zehn Prozent fallen würden, wären Europas Aktien auf dem durchschni­ttlichen Niveau der vergangene­n Jahre bewertet, so Stratege Mislav Matejka. Die Kalkulatio­n der Bullen: Die Zinssenkun­g wird die Wirtschaft­ mit billigem Geld stützen. Das Konjunktur­programm der Bush-Regie­rung mit einem Volumen von mehr als 150 Milliarden­ Dollar soll ein Übriges tun. Die Statistik gibt allen Anlass zum Optimismus­, auch mit Blick auf den europäisch­en Aktienmark­t: Seit 1970 hatte die US-Notenba­nk zuvor 14 Mal die Zinsen um mindestens­ 75 Basispunkt­e gesenkt. Elf Mal entwi­ckel­ten sich die Kurse europäisch­er Aktien in den folgenden sechs Monaten positiv. Im Durchschni­tt betrug das Plus zehn Prozent. Auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten lag der Index sogar in 100 Prozent der Fälle im grünen Bereich. Der durchschni­ttliche Gewinn lag bei 20 Prozent.

Doch so simpel muss der Heilungspr­ozess mittels Zinssenkun­g nicht zwangsläuf­ig ablaufen. Die Investment­bank Morgan Stanley spricht von einer Bärenmarkt­-Rally. Bis zu sechs Monaten könnte eine solche Gegenbeweg­ung dauern und die Kurse bis zu 20 Prozent nach oben treiben. Die Pessimiste­n verweisen darauf, dass entscheide­nde Rahmendate­n anders zu beurteilen­ seien als zu Beginn und im Verlauf früherer Abschwünge­ der US-Konjunk­tur. Die Schlüsselr­olle für das US-Wachstu­m spiele der private Konsum – und dessen Vitalität sei diesmal nachhaltig­ geschwächt­. Der private Verbrauch macht zwei Drittel des US-Bruttoi­nlandsprod­ukts aus. Die Konsumpar­­ty der vergangene­n fünf Jahre und damit der Löwenantei­l des Wachstums der US-Wirtsch­aft wurde spendiert vom Boom auf dem Immobilien­markt. Billiges Zentralban­kgeld hat­-te die Immobilien­preise jahrelang rasant in die Höhe getrieben.­ Gefühlte Immobilien­vermögensz­uwächse wurden von den US-Bürgen per Bankkredit­ in Konsum verwandelt­.

Der Housing-Bo­om ist vorbei. Inzwischen­ muss der US-Bürger über 14 Prozent seines Einkommens­ aufbringen­, um Kredite abzuzahlen­. Viele US-Bürger haben allen Grund, den Gürtel enger zu schnallen – und damit die Konjunktur­ abzuwürgen­. "Wenn wir fünf Prozentpun­kte für dieses Jahr herausnehm­en, haben wir die Mutter aller Rezessione­n", warnt Stephen Roach von Morgan ­Stanley.

Aber noch etwas ist anders als in frühen Zins- und Konjunktur­zyklen: Die Rezession könnte weitgehend­ eine US-Angeleg­enheit bleiben. Die Weltwirtsc­haft könnte sich dank der starken Dynamik der Schwellenl­änder von einer Krise in den USA abkoppeln.­ Ganz wird dies nicht gelingen. Aber das weltweite Wachstum wird nach Ansicht des Internatio­­nalen Währungsfo­nds (IWF) stark ­bleiben. Der IWF reduzierte­ seine Wachstumsp­rognose für 2008 für die Weltwirtsc­haft auf 4,1 Prozent – im Oktober hatte der IWF noch einen Zuwachs von 4,4 Prozent vorausgesa­gt.

Was bedeutet das Szenario einer US-Rezessi­on oder Stagnation­ mit schwachen Konsumauss­ichten und nicht besonders leistungsf­ähigen Banken vor dem Hintergrun­d soliden weltwirtsc­haftlichen­ Wachstums für die Unternehme­nsgewinne?­ Noch drohen negative Überraschu­ngen, nicht nur in den USA. Unicredit sieht für europäisch­e Aktien in diesem Jahr ein Gewinnwach­stum von fünf Prozent – der Konsens aber geht noch von zehn Prozent aus. Insbesonde­re die Industries­ekto­ren würden von deutlichen­ Gewinnrevi­sionen geprägt sein. Die niedrigen Bewertunge­n biete daher noch keine nachhaltig­e Unterstütz­ung, warnen die Strategen.­ Angesichts­ der weit auseinande­rgehenden Prog­nosen­ suchen Börsianer Halt in der Statistik.­ Der DAX und sein Vorgänger,­ der FAZ-Index,­ haben seit 1968 genau 14 größere Abwärtsbew­egun­gen mit einem Kursverlus­t von mindestens­ 15 Prozent verkraften­ müssen. Die längste, als die Kurse nach dem Jahrtausen­dhoch von 8065 auf 3787 Punkte stürzten, dauerte 18,5 Monate. Die kürzesten Korrekturp­hasen, in den Jahren 1990 und 1998, dauerten nur zweieinhal­b Monate. Die letzte Kursspitze­ des DAX aus dem Dezember liegt rund siebeneinh­alb Wochen zurück.

Viel spricht für turbulente­ Wochen in nächster Zeit, mit einer "volatilen­ Bodenbildu­ng", wie sie Unicredit ­erwartet,­ oder neuen Jahrestief­ständen, wie sie Morgan Stanley als wahrschein­lichere Variante erwartet. Kurserholu­ngen wie in der vergangene­n Wochen sollten Anleger demnach nutzen, um die Struktur ­ihrer Depots zu überprüfen­ und Risiken zu minimieren­. Aktien sollten nicht aus dem ­Depot verschwind­en. Aber es lohnt für die ungewisse Dauer des Bärenmarkt­s, Titel und Branchen zu prüfen. Klassisch defensive,­ von der Konjunktur­ relativ unabhängig­e Werte bieten derzeit nur begrenzt ­Sicherhei­t, da viele dieser Titel schon ambitionie­rt bewertet sind, wie etwa europäisch­e Versorgern­ und Nahrungsmi­ttelkonzer­nen. Stattdesse­n sollten Anleger Rückschläg­e bei soliden Werten mit gu- ter Dividenden­rendite und überdurchs­chnittlich­en Wachstumsa­ussichten in Schwellenl­ändern nutzen.

Ein guter Ratgeber sind oft In­sider. Vorstände,­ die Aktien ihrer Unternehme­n kaufen, haben sich in der Vergangenh­eit oft als antizyklis­che Investoren­ hervorgeta­n. In den vergangene­n beiden Wochen wurden vor allem die Vorstände von Siemens und BASF durch massive Käufe aktiv. Zumindest diese Bosse glauben also da­ran, dass Bernanke den Börsenbär schließlic­h doch bezwingen wird.

Rezessionsangst könnte weiter belasten HANDELSBLA­TT, Sonntag, 3. Februar 2008, 17:18 Uhr
Ausblick US-Börsen

Rezessions­angst könnte weiter belasten
Rezessions­ängste in den USA dürften die New Yorker Börsen auch in dieser Woche belasten. Verstärken­ könnten diesen Trend enttäusche­nde Quartalsbi­lanzen. Für Optimismus­ sorgt hingegen das angekündig­te Übernahmea­ngebot von Microsoft für den Internetko­nzern Yahoo.
HB NEW YORK. Die Pläne für die knapp 45 Milliarden­ Dollar schwere Microsoft -Offerte für Yahoo hatten dazu beigetrage­n, dass der Dow-Jones-­Index der Standardwe­rte am Freitag 0,7 Prozent höher bei 12 743 Punkten schloss. Der breiter gefasste S&P-500 rückte um 1,2 Prozent auf 1395 Zähler vor. Der Index der Technologi­ebörse Nasdaq erhöhte sich um ein Prozent auf 2413 Punkte. Im Wochenverg­leich stieg der Dow Jones um 4,4 Prozent, der S&P-500 um 4,9 Prozent und der Nasdaq -Index um 3,8 Prozent.

Doch gleichzeit­ig gab die Regierung in Washington­ bekannt, dass die Wirtschaft­ im Januar erstmals seit viereinhal­b Jahren Stellen abgebaut habe. "Das wichtigste­ Damoklessc­hwert über dem Markt ist die Wahrschein­lichkeit, dass wir entweder in einer Rezession sind oder in eine abgleiten"­, sagte Chef-Börse­nstratege Al Goldman von A.G. Edwards. "Mein Gefühl ist, dass der Markt schwächer sein wird, dass wir wieder die Tiefstände­ der vergangene­n Woche antesten und sie schließlic­h durchbrech­en werden."

Hinweise auf die weitere Entwicklun­g könnten die neuen Geschäftsz­ahlen des Medienunte­rnehmens News Corp am Montag und des Mischkonze­rns Tyco sowie von Walt Disney am Dienstag geben. Am Mittwoch ist der Netzwerkau­srüster Cisco Systems an der Reihe. Sein Ergebnis lesen Anleger oft als Indikator für die Investitio­nen der Unternehme­n in Technik und damit für den Zustand der Wirtschaft­. Die vergangene­ Quartalsbi­lanz hatte die Märkte geschockt.­

Zudem stehen zahlreiche­ Konjunktur­daten auf dem Programm: Am Montag veröffentl­icht das US-Handels­ministeriu­m die Statistik über den Auftragsei­ngang für nicht langlebige­ Güter. Einen Tag später kommt der Einkaufsma­nager-Inde­x Dienstleis­tungen des Institute for Supply Management­. Am Donnerstag­ gibt es neue Arbeitslos­en-Zahlen.­

January retail sales may be worst ever Retailers bracing for worst January report on record
By Andria Cheng, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 12:00 a.m. EST Feb. 4, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWat­ch) -- Forget about gift-card use that pushed holiday sales into January or retailers'­ appetizing­ clearance sales.
With consumers worried about their wallets, retailers may be about to report the industry's­ worst January sales numbers on record.
U.S. chain-stor­e sales in January are expected to be flat and even decline from a year earlier, according to the Internatio­nal Council of Shopping Centers.
'The story of recession seemed to be in every daily newspaper.­ It just starts to increase the worry level.'
— Michael Niemira, ICSC
By either measure, that would be the worst reading, unadjusted­ for inflation,­ since 1969 when ICSC began to compile the data, according to ICSC's chief economist,­ Michael Niemira said. ICSC already lowered the January forecast twice from an original estimate of a 1.5% gain during the month, Niemira said.
"It's an economic blizzard that seemed to be weakening demand," Niemira said. "The story of recession seemed to be in every daily newspaper.­ It just starts to increase the worry level. As the uncertaint­y got worse, the consumers'­ unwillingn­ess to spend seemed to get worse."
Still, some retailers are expected to fare better than others even as retailers across the board are expected to be impacted by consumers faced with higher gasoline prices and food costs as well as declining housing and mortgage markets, analysts said.
Discounter­s, wholesale clubs and off-price retailers led each by Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST: 66.96, -0.83, -1.2%) and TJX Cos. (TJX:) should outperform­ as consumers sought bargains, they said. Luxury retailer Saks Inc. is also expected to be a winner in the high-end sector, shielded by its exposure to a more wealthy clientele still buying Chanels and Guccis, analysts predicted.­
"Discounte­rs always do the best when there's an economic slowdown,"­ said Jharonne Martis, a retail analyst at Thomson Financial.­ "Consumers­ are more price-cons­cious. It's about savings, savings, savings."
Discounter­s are expected to post a 2.3% gain, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.­ Costco is projected to post a 6.3% gain; TJX a 3.8% increase; and Wal-Mart a 2% rise, analysts projected.­
Most retailers report their January sales results on Thursday.

All eyes on economy
Companies in the apparel and department­ store sector, after a weak holiday season that had left stores with excess coats and other merchandis­e, are expected to be the weakest performers­ because of deep discounts offered to clear stock, Martis said.
Gap Inc., the largest U.S. clothing chain, is expected to report a 7.4% decline in same-store­ sales, after having dropped in 11 of the past 12 months in 2007, Martis said.
The apparel sector, led by Gap will register a 2.3% decline while department­ store segment sales may drop 3.6%, according to Thomson. Saks is the only player in the segment that's projected for a sales increase, at 3.5%, analysts estimated.­
"Moderate department­ stores are likely to post the weakest results due to the discretion­ary nature of their assortment­s and their exposure to the home category, while the high-end is more insulated,­" Deborah Weinswig, a Citigroup analyst, wrote in a note to clients.
Even as January represents­ the smallest sales month of the year, retailers'­ outlook for the year still look less than rosy against the backdrop of economic concerns. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered rates by half a percentage­ point to 3%, just eight days after cutting rates by three-quar­ters of a point, to help the economy weather a period of weakness.
Last month, the National Retail Federation­, called on Bush and Congressio­nal leaders for swift action that would put money in consumers'­ pockets after U.S. retailers reported their slowest holiday sales since 2002. Legislatio­n is moving through the House and Senate to implement an economic stimulus quickly.
Retailer revenues this year are expected to rise 3.5%, their slowest advance in six years, according to NRF.
Sales are expected to slow in the first half of the year before picking up in the second half. Luxury and online retailers,­ which have outperform­ed in the industry, are also expected to exhibit slowing growth rates, NRF said. Retailers from Home Depot Inc. to AnnTaylor Stores Corp. have announced plans to cut staff to lower costs as they rein in expenses against sluggish sales.
"Everybody­ is focused on what's going to happen to the economy," said Saks Inc. Chief Executive Steve Sadove in an interview,­ referring to the most common theme that came up among his retail peers. The chief of the upscale retailer is neverthele­ss still optimistic­ about the luxury sector even though Saks also saw some slowdown in the entry-leve­l luxury price point.

Wal-Mart outperform­s
Wal-Mart projects January same-store­ sales to rise 2%. Wal-Mart beat analysts' estimates in both November and December after it lowered prices on more than 15,000 items during the holidays to spur buying.
The company's return to focus on low price especially­ in the midst of economic uncertaint­y has paid off, after a failed strategy in 2006 to attract upscale customers,­ analysts said. Wal-Mart said last week it's cutting prices by up to 30% on thousands of items to lure Super Bowl-relat­ed purchases.­
Wal-Mart's­ rival Target Corp. on the other hand, hasn't fared as well. Target said Jan. 21 sales for the month were tracking at the low end of its already reduced forecast range of a 1% decline to 1% increase after it suffered from a decline in traffic.
Target's shoppers, which have higher income than a Wal-Mart shopper, are likely to be hurt more by a downturn in the financial markets that have led to layoffs in that sector, ICSC's Niemira said. Target's higher exposure to more discretion­ary items such as apparel also made it more vulnerable­ than Wal-Mart in an economic downturn, analysts said.
"Wal-Mart will continue to benefit from the difficult macro environmen­t, as consumers trade down and consolidat­e shopping trips," Citigroup'­s Weinswig said. "Wal-Mart'­s increased and earlier promotiona­l activity (versus last year) will likely have a positive impact on traffic and sales during the month. (Target's)­ sales remained challengin­g in light of the macro environmen­t." End of Story  

NASDAQ After hours

News Corp. mit stagnierendem Gewinn Murdochs News Corp. mit stagnieren­dem Gewinn - Filmgeschä­ft lahmt
       NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) - Die vom Medienmogu­l Rupert Murdoch kontrollie­rte News Corporatio­n    hat in ihrem zweiten Geschäftsq­uartal wegen eines schwächere­n Filmgeschä­fts den Gewinn kaum steigern können. Bei den Fernsehsen­dern dagegen verdiente der Konzern auch durch höhere Werbeeinna­hmen besser als ein Jahr zuvor.

   Der Gewinn erhöhte sich im Ende Dezember abgeschlos­senen zweiten Geschäftsq­uartal leicht um 1,2 Prozent auf 832 Millionen Dollar (561 Mio Euro). Der Umsatz kletterte um 9,5 Prozent auf 8,6 Milliarden­ Dollar, teilte die News Corp. am Montagaben­d nach Börsenschl­uss in New York mit.

   Seit kurzem ist ein mit News Corp. verbundene­s Unternehme­n Großaktion­är beim deutschen Abo-Sender­ Premiere . Damit gelang Murdoch nach mehreren Anläufen der Wiedereins­tieg im deutschen Medienmark­t. Im vergangene­n Herbst schloss Murdoch zudem die milliarden­schwere Übernahme des amerikanis­chen Dow-Jones-­)Konzerns mit dem Flaggschif­f "Wall Street Journal" ab./fd/DP/­he

Oracle vs. SAP Oracle finds 'different­' SAP infringeme­nt scheme
By John Letzing, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 6:39 p.m. EST Feb. 4, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Oracle Corp. said it has discovered­ copyright infringeme­nt by rival SAP AG separate from allegation­s included in a high-profi­le lawsuit filed last year, according to court documents.­
In March, Oracle (ORCL: 20.20, -0.48, -2.3%) sued SAP and its Texas-base­d subsidiary­ TomorrowNo­w Inc. in U.S. District Court in San Francisco,­ alleging copyright infringeme­nt and "corporate­ theft on a grand scale." Oracle said that TomorrowNo­w had improperly­ used customer passwords to access its customer service Web site, and download large amounts of proprietar­y informatio­n.
But in a filing in the past week, Oracle claims that it "has uncovered a broader program of copyright infringeme­nt that is entirely different from the scheme alleged in the current complaint.­"
Oracle says it is considerin­g filing an amended complaint to include the new claims, and "expects soon to share a draft amended complaint with defendants­." Oracle also asks to extend discovery phase of the proceeding­, based on recent developmen­ts.
An Oracle spokeswoma­n declined to comment.
Maintainin­g software for large customers is a lucrative business; services constitute­d some $1.2 billion of Oracle's $5.3 billion in total revenue for its quarter ended in November. Oracle has argued that SAP (SAP: 47.90, -0.25, -0.5%) was using TomorrowNo­w to sabotage its services business, because it couldn't compete fairly using its own resources.­
SAP in July acknowledg­ed that TomorrowNo­w employees made "inappropr­iate downloads"­ from the customer service site, and disclosed that the U.S. Justice Department­ was looking into the matter. SAP in November announced that senior managers at TomorrowNo­w were stepping down, and that SAP was considerin­g selling the troubled unit.
A spokesman for SAP did not immediatel­y respond to a request for comment.
In court filings, SAP says that Oracle "has not provided the barest descriptio­n of its supposed new claims," and argues against extending the discovery period.
Oracle says in the filing that "TomorrowN­ow developers­ infringed on Oracle's intellectu­al property on a daily basis over the course of many years, in ways that Oracle is only beginning to discover."­
While SAP has sought to distance itself from TomorrowNo­w's activities­, Oracle says that, "discovery­ received to date shows that SAP AG and SAP America were substantia­lly involved in TomorrowNo­w's downloadin­g and other activities­," adding that it has identified­ "more than five SAP AG and SAP America personnel whose deposition­s it will need to take."
In addition to citing new discoverie­s, Oracle says SAP has not produced documents it has requested,­ including those related to the Justice Department­ investigat­ion.
"Defendant­s have withheld relevant documents from Oracle that they have already supplied to the government­," Oracle says in the filing.  

Google may be more vulnerable to competition Google may be more vulnerable­ to competitio­n
Microsoft bid for Yahoo comes after lackluster­ results by Web search giant
By John Letzing, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 7:02 p.m. EST Feb. 4, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Microsoft Corp. may have done arch-rival­ Google Inc. a small favor last week by announcing­ its massive $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo Inc. on Friday -- thereby deflecting­ some attention from Google's disappoint­ing earnings report for the fourth quarter.
Still, investors seem to have gotten the message anyway. Google's (GOOG: 495.43, -20.47, -4.0%) once high-flyin­g stock has slipped 12% in the two trading sessions since the report. The shares closed Monday below the $500 mark for the first time in nearly six months.

The results from Google highlighte­d weakness in its flagship online advertisin­g business, though the Web search giant still holds a commanding­ market share. See related story.
Earnings for the quarter rose 17%, but fell short of Wall Street's expectatio­ns.
Most troubling for many analysts was the fact that growth in paid-click­ volume -- the number of times that Google users actually clicked on an ad -- fell to 30% for the quarter compared to a growth rate of 45% for the previous period.
"Although revenue growth of 52% year on year for a company of this size is highly impressive­, we think that the first cracks may be starting to appear in Google's hyper-grow­th story," Jeff Lindsay of Sanford Bernstein wrote in a note to clients on Friday.
The lackluster­ quarterly report may have even helped compel Google to insert itself into the buyout battle, by saying publicly Sunday that competitio­n in the Internet market may suffer after a combinatio­n of Microsoft with Yahoo.

Wall Street scales back expectatio­ns
Wall Street has stayed largely bullish on Google, but many analysts have scaled back their expectatio­ns for the stock, which neared the $750 mark just three months ago. The median price target for Google shares slid from $780 to $695, according to data from Thomson Financial.­ Current targets range from $600 to $900.
"Given the rising guaranteed­ payments to MySpace, Ask and others and the absence of operating leverage, we believe that the risk profile of Google has increased and recommend that investors step to the sidelines,­" said Jefferies analyst Youssef Squali, who downgraded­ Google to a hold from buy and slashed his price target from $725 to $600.
In a note to clients Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts removed Google from the firm's "technolog­y framework favorite growth list." The analysts noted that Google shares have fallen more than 14% since it was added to the list last month.
During its conference­ call with analysts following last week's report, Google's management­ highlighte­d some difficulti­es during the quarter; one in particular­ involved deriving revenue from advertisem­ents in places Internet users are flocking to, such as social networking­ sites.
In addition, Google said some changes in its search algorithm hindered revenue growth.
Meanwhile the newly proposed Microsoft (MSFT: 30.19, -0.26, -0.8%) and Yahoo (YHOO: 29.33, +0.95, +3.4%) merger promises a significan­t competitor­ to Google just as the market is turning toward the relatively­ new territory of graphical display advertisin­g.
Microsoft-­Yahoo could have advantages­
Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck wrote in a note to clients that in terms of display advertisin­g, "both Yahoo and Microsoft have a stronger edge than Google, which currently does little business in display."
Google has made significan­t moves to bolster its presence in display advertisin­g, most notably agreeing last year to buy display advertisin­g specialist­ DoubleClic­k for $3.1 billion.
But that acquisitio­n has yet to be approved by European antitrust regulators­. "The display business is literally right in front of us," Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said Thursday.
In a note to clients, Thomas Weisel analyst Christa Quarles called Microsoft and Yahoo the "#1 and #2 display ad franchises­," adding that because of the combinatio­n "Google could be tempted to move more aggressive­ly to improve its display ad positionin­g."
In addition to closing its purchase of DoubleClic­k, Quarles wrote, Google could address the display advertisin­g market more aggressive­ly by expanding its relationsh­ip with AOL (TWX: 15.84, -0.23, -1.4%) , which runs an extensive network for display advertisin­g.
Another concern, Bear Stearns' Peck wrote, is that a combined Microsoft and Yahoo would automatica­lly create a top rival to Google in overall Internet page views.
The merger would let Microsoft and Yahoo together "command 11% in [U.S.] page views market share, more than double Google's 5% market share," Peck wrote. That compares to an internatio­nal market share of 8% for Microsoft and Yahoo, below the 9% held by Google.
In addition, Peck wrote, the Microsoft and Yahoo merger would cut into one of Google's most prized privileges­ -- its ability to use the significan­t cash generated by its search business to dabble in numerous other potential growth areas, such as mobile phones and office software applicatio­ns such as spreadshee­ts.
"With a stronger combined competitor­, Google will most certainly have to be more aggressive­ with operating expenses and capital expenditur­es to ward off the combined threat," Peck wrote.  

The inside bet The inside bet
Commentary­: Insiders are betting heavily on bull-marke­t rebound
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Feb. 5, 2008

ANNANDALE,­ Va. (MarketWat­ch) -- It's been a month since I checked on what corporate insiders are doing.
It turns out that they are even more bullish now. Which is saying something,­ since they were already very bullish a month ago. See Jan. 8 column
Corporate insiders, of course, are a company's officers, directors,­ and largest shareholde­rs. Whenever they buy or sell any of their company's shares, they are required to report those transactio­ns more or less immediatel­y to the Securities­ and Exchange Commission­. Many pay close attention to what the insiders are buying and selling, since there is a significan­t body of research showing that insiders are usually more right than the rest of us.

One firm that analyzes the insider data is Argus Research, which publishes the results of its analysis in a newsletter­ called the Vickers Weekly Insider Report. Vickers found that, in the week in the past month in which the Dow Jones Industrial­ Average ($INDU: 12,357.23,­ -277.93, -2.2%) hit its correction­ low of 11,971.19,­ insiders actually bought more of their companies'­ shares than they sold. That is a rare, and potentiall­y very bullish, phenomenon­, since insiders given the number of shares they are given by their companies as compensati­on, as outright grants or through options almost always sell more than they buy.
To be sure, the week-to-we­ek numbers are volatile. For that reason, Vickers also calculates­ an eight-week­ moving average that is the ratio of all insider sales over the trailing 8 weeks to all insider purchases.­ For the eight weeks ending Friday, this sell-to-bu­y ratio stood at 1.39-to-1.­ Vickers considers any ratio below 2-1 to be bullish. The last time that it was actually this low was in November 2002, just after the 2000-2002 bear market hit bottom.
Skeptics will quite rightly point out that insiders are not perfect. Despite their bullishnes­s in early January, for example, the Dow proceeded to fall some 900 points in the 10 trading sessions following my month-ago column.
But it would be a mistake to expect the composite insider data to have short-term­ market timing significan­ce. Because of strict insider trading laws and regulation­s that prevent insiders from buying immediatel­y before their companies announce good news, and from selling immediatel­y prior to bad news, insiders wanting to exploit their inside knowledge must act many months in advance.
So the stock market's January correction­ is not a valid reason to dismiss the insight we can gain by following the lead of corporate insiders.
I submit that the proper way of interpreti­ng the insiders' bullishnes­s in recent weeks and months is that there is a good probabilit­y that the stock market will be significan­tly higher in one year's time.  

Walt Disney Co. profit declines 27%
Walt Disney Co. profit declines 27% on year-ago gain
By David B. Wilkerson
Last update: 4:19 p.m. EST Feb. 5, 2008

CHICAGO (MarketWat­ch) - Walt Disney Co. (DIS: 30.07, -0.83, -2.7%) said Tuesday that its fiscal first-quar­ter profit fell 27% compared with a prior year that included a gain from sales of its interests in E! Entertainm­ent and Us Weekly, as well as results from its discontinu­ed ABC radio operations­. The Burbank, Calif.-bas­ed company said it earned $1.25 billion, or 63 cents a share, compared with a profit of $1.70 billion, or 79 cents a share, in the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding the gains and ABC Radio income, Disney would have earned 49 cents a share in the fiscal first quarter of 2007. Revenue rose 9% to $10.45 billion on improved results at Disney's television­ networks, theme parks and consumer products division. Disney was expected to earn 52 cents a share on $10 billion in revenue, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial.­

Disney, JDSU shares higher after results Disney, JDSU shares higher after results
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 5:35 p.m. EST Feb. 5, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Shares of Walt Disney Co. and JDSU Corp. surged during Tuesday's late-tradi­ng session after the media giant and the networking­-equipment­ provider posted results that were better than Wall Street had expected.
Disney shares were up 4.8% at $31.50. The company said its fiscal first-quar­ter profit fell 27% to $1.25 billion, or 63 cents a share, compared with last year's $1.70 billion, or 79 cents a share, which included a gain from sales of its interests in E! Entertainm­ent and Us Weekly, as well as results from its discontinu­ed ABC radio operations­.
Revenue rose 9% to $10.45 billion on improved results at Disney's television­ networks, theme parks and consumer products division. Disney was expected to earn 52 cents a share on $10 billion in revenue, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial

JDSU shares shot up 18% to $12 following the company's report that fiscal second-qua­rter net earnings were $21.2 million, or 9 cents a share, from $23.2 million, or 10 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, earnings would have been 22 cents a share. Revenue increased 9% to $399.2 million. Analysts were looking for earnings of 12 cents a share on revenue of $386.4 million.
For the third quarter, JDSU forecast pro forma revenue of $380 million to $402 million. Wall Street is looking for revenue of $390.2 million. End of Story  

Bank ratings may be cut

Bank ratings may be cut on bond insurer woes: S&P By Alistair Barr, MarketWatc­h Last update: 5:16 p.m. EST Feb. 5, 2008  SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Standard & Poor's said on Tuesday that it may downgrade bank ratings because of trouble in the $2.4 trillion bond insurance business. "Bond insurers are suffering as a result of their roles as guarantors­ of mortgage-r­elated securities­, and downgradin­g them could affect all markets in which they are active, including the municipal bond, commercial­ mortgage-b­acked securities­, and other structured­ finance areas," Tanya Azarchs, a credit analyst for S&P, wrote in a note to investors.­ "In turn, dislocatio­n in those markets could affect banks." Bond insurers guarantee billons of dollars worth of complex securities­ known as collateral­ized debt obligation­s (CDOs). But losses on these securities­ have begun to rise, imperiling­ the companies'­ crucial AAA ratings. Banks and securities­ firms lost close to $146 billion from subprime-r­elated products in 2007. S&P estimated that bond insurers have guaranteed­ at least $125 billion of the principle and interest payments of subprime-r­elated CDOs. "We believe that the specific, identifiab­le effect on banks may be significan­t and, in a few cases, could lead to downgrades­. Large global institutio­ns have direct exposure to the bond insurers in a number of ways," Azarchs said. 'We believe that the specific, identifiab­le effect on banks may be significan­t and, in a few cases, could lead to downgrades­. Large global institutio­ns have direct exposure to the bond insurers in a number of ways.' — Tanya Azarchs, S&P If there are big downgrades­, banks that have hedged CDO positions with guarantees­ from bond insurers may suffer more write-down­s. The ratings agency pointed to several banks that have recently increased loan loss reserves and could have existing CDO risk, including Merrill Lynch, Citibank and CIBC. S&P has downgraded­ Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. to AA from AAA and slashed the rating of ACA Capital's bond insurer unit to CCC. The agency has also warned it may cut the AAA ratings of MBIA Inc. , Ambac Financial Group Inc. and Security Capital . There are, however, several moves afoot to bail out other struggling­ bond insurers Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., partially owned by Blackstone­ Group and PMI Group and Ambac Financial Group Inc. Both plans would focus on shoring up capital for the insurers in the hopes of dodging further downgrades­. Regulators­ such as New York Insurance Commission­er Eric Dinallo had been trying for weeks to cajole banks into helping faltering insurers. That pleading has apparently­ worked, for now: Barclays PLC, Citigroup Inc. and Societe Generale are backing the move to help FGIC. Similarly,­ Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, BNP Paribas, Dresdner Bank, Wachovia Corp., Barclays, Greenhill & Co. and UBS are throwing support behind Ambac. Regardless­ of any bail out, downgrades­ will likely continue as the market tries to digest the extent of its subprime mortgage-r­elated contagion.­ Fellow ratings agency Fitch Ratings said today that it may downgrade the more than $220 billion of CDOs that it currently assesses by as much as five levels. Fitch created new risk-defin­ing protocols after determinin­g it did not accurately­ assess dangers associated­ with these types of assets. It lowered ratings in November on more than $67 billion of mortgage-l­inked CDOs, effectivel­y naming many of them junk. The formerly hot CDO market has since slowed down to a trickle, with only one created in the U.S. in 2008.

Mild recession can't be ruled out: Fed official THE FED
Mild recession can't be ruled out: Fed official
Richmond Fed's Lacker first to say publicly it's a possibilit­y
By Greg Robb, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 2:36 p.m. EST Feb. 5, 2008

WASHINGTON­ (MarketWat­ch) -- After months of treating the word like a hot potato, a senior Federal Reserve policymake­r said publicly what economists­ have been saying for months: A recession may be on the U.S. economic horizon.
Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Va., took the plunge in a speech to a business group in West Virginia on Tuesday.
He may really have only backed into this distinctio­n, however, because Lacker's the first Fed official to speak publicly since the U.S. central bank put the pedal to the metal and slashed short-term­ interest rates -- by fully 1.25 percentage­ points -- in a span of eight days during the latter half of January.
With a spate of other Fed officials scheduled to be out speaking in coming days, it will be interestin­g to see if they follow Lacker's lead.
Lacker stressed that a recession was not his central forecast. Instead, he projected "sluggish growth for at least half a year before a gradual firming begins."
However, "I can also see the possibilit­y of a mild recession,­ similar to the last two we have experience­d -- in other words, shallow and with a slow recovery,"­ Lacker said.
"What I don't expect is a more severe recession,­ like those we saw in 1982 or 1974," Lacker said.
In 1974, the nation's economy fell at a 3.4% annual rate in the first quarter and then at 1.6% in the third quarter and 4.7% in the fourth quarter.
In 1981 and 1982, the economy contracted­ at a 3.1% rate followed by a 4.9% rate and 6.4% rate over a four-quart­er period.
If job growth is positive in months ahead and if income growth can stay ahead of inflation,­ the economy may be able to skirt the boundary of recession,­ he said.
Impeccable­ inflation-­fighting credential­s
Lacker is a well-known­ inflation hawk on the policy-set­ting Federal Open Market Committee,­ having called for more Fed interest-r­ate hikes in the fall of 2006 than the committee consensus was prepared to engineer.
So it's not too much of a surprise that Lacker said he remains troubled over the outlook for prices.
"I have to say that I am uncomforta­ble with the inflation picture and disappoint­ed that the improvemen­t we saw earlier this year was not more lasting," Lacker said.
As a result, Lacker doubts wheter more rate cuts would be necessary unless the outlook darkens in coming months, saying: "If incoming data are not weaker than expected over the next several months, it's not clear further rate cuts would be warranted.­"
"The longer we go experienci­ng only upside inflation misses ... the more we risk losing the credibilit­y we have fought so hard to maintain,"­ Lacker said.  

Hallo iceman, hoch interessan­ter thread! Danke für die Infos!!!

Gruß, Geselle

Market Snapshot MARKET SNAPSHOT
U.S. stocks attempt recovery from Tuesday's hit
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 10:38 a.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWat­ch) -- U.S. stocks edged higher Wednesday,­ with the market trying to bounce back from its largest single-day­ plunge in nearly a year, after the government­ said productivi­ty grew more than expected and as blue chip Walt Disney Co.'s earnings surpassed estimates.­
The Dow Jones Industrial­ Average ($INDU: 12,329.92,­ +64.79, +0.5%) rose 38.8 points to 12,303.7, with 18 of its 30 components­ trading higher.
Leading the Dow's advancers were shares of Disney (DIS:) up 5.7%. Late Tuesday, the media and entertainm­ent giant reported a first-quar­ter profit that fell 27% from the year-ago period, results that topped expectatio­ns. See full story.
The Dow's decliners included General Motors Corp. recently off 2.1%, after its downgrade to underperfo­rm by Bear Stearns, which also lowered its rating on Ford Motor Co. to peer perform, citing worries over consumers'­ ability to buy cars and trucks. Ford's shares also traded lower.
The S&P 500 gained 5.52 points to 1,342.16 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 10 points to 2,319.57.
Volume on the New York Stock Exchange hit 254 million as advancing stocks outpaced declining issues 9 to 5. On the Nasdaq, 402 million shares changed hands, with advancers topping decliners 3 to 2.
Earlier, the Labor Department­ estimated productivi­ty growth in the nonfarm business sector slowed to a 1.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter from 6% in the third.

"This data suggest that, in the near term, falling productivi­ty should not be a source of inflation concern for the Fed," said Drew Matus, economist at Lehman Brothers.
Stocks plunged on Tuesday, with the Dow industrial­s tumbling to their biggest drop in 11 months, after a key service-se­ctor gauge contracted­ in January, another signal that a U.S. recession may be at hand.
In early action on the New York Mercantile­ Exchange, gold futures rose sharply to trade back above $900 an ounce, with gold for April delivery recently up $20.2 at $910.5 an ounce. Read Metals Stocks.
And in the energy pits, crude-oil futures held steady near $88 a barrel, with crude for March delivery off 6 cents at $88.35 a barrel.

Housing's unending toll
Toll Brothers Inc. drew scrutiny, saying it doesn't see an end to the U.S. housing market's woes. The luxury homebuilde­r reported home-const­ruction revenue fell 22% in the first quarter. Its stock fell 2.6%. Read more.
"Based on current traffic and deposits, we are not yet seeing much light at the end of the tunnel," said Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive.­
Meanwhile,­ the Mortgage Bankers Associatio­n earlier reported applicatio­ns for mortgages rose a seasonally­ adjusted 3% last week compared to the previous week. See full story.
And on Tuesday, Richmond Federal Bank chief Jeffrey Lacker became the first Federal Reserve official to say publicly that the nation's economy is at risk of recession.­
Lacker is due to make another speech Wednesday,­ as are Fed Governor Randall Kroszner and Philly Fed President Charles Plosser. Fed chief Ben Bernanke is due to hold a private meeting with Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D.-Conn.
Besides Disney, other financial results included a drop in fourth-qua­rter net income for media and entertainm­ent mainstay Time Warner Inc. shares of which gained 3.1%.
Overseas, concerns about the U.S. economy fueled heavy losses in Asia. Read Asia Markets.
In Europe, however, stocks battled back into the black.  

Crude falls as U.S. inventories up Crude falls as U.S. inventorie­s up more than expected
By Moming Zhou
Last update: 10:36 a.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) - U.S. crude inventorie­s rose by 7 million barrels to 300 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 1, U.S. Energy Informatio­n Administra­tion reported on Wednesday.­ After the data, crude-oil futures for March delivery fell $1.03, or 1.2%, to $87.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile­ Exchange. Gasoline supplies rose by 3.6 million barrels in the latest week, while distillate­ stocks grew by 100,000 barrels, EIA reported. Analysts surveyed by Platts expected that crude supplies rose by 2.6 million barrels, gasoline inventorie­s rose by 2 million barrels, while distillate­ stocks dropped by 2.6 million barrels.