US-Biotech BIOTECH STOCKS
Biogen Idec, Invitrogen­ lead sector gainers
By Val Brickates Kennedy, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 10:50 a.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

BOSTON (MarketWat­ch) -- Drug stocks climbed Wednesday,­ as shares of biotech mainstay Biogen Idec gained in the wake of a strong financial results that showed fourth-qua­rter profit nearly doubled.
The Amex Biotechnol­ogy Index ($BTK: 740.19, +4.92, +0.7%) rose 0.7% to 740.43 and the Amex Pharmaceut­ical Index ($DRG:) added 0.4% to 313.34 in early action, as the sectors rebounded from a disappoint­ing session on Tuesday.

Shares of Biogen Idec (BIIB:) hopped 3% to $62.07.
The Cambridge,­ Mass.-base­d drugmaker reported quarterly earnings jumped to 67 cents a share, up from 32 cents in the final three months of 2006, while revenue rocketed 26% to $893.3 million. Biogen also reiterated­ its 2008 profit forecast.
Meanwhile,­ shares of research tools provider Invitrogen­ Corp. (IVGN:) jumped 5% to $87.37.
Late Tuesday, the company said it's settled long-stand­ing patent litigation­ against Agilent Technologi­es (A:).

Specific terms weren't disclosed,­ but the settlement­ calls for payments to be made on both sides, along with certain licensing agreements­. In addition, Agilent will cease selling its RNase H minus RT products.
In addition, Invitrogen­ reported fourth-qua­rter earnings from continuing­ operations­ that jumped to 82 cents a share, up from the prior year's 46 cents. On an adjusted basis, earnings would have been $1.15 a share, up from 99 cents a share.

Beaten-up Cisco looks for a bottom Cisco forecast will come under investors'­ scope
Shares have sold off 30% since last report; some analysts see a bottom
By Dan Gallagher,­ MarketWatc­h
Last update: 1:32 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- With its shares off nearly 30% in the past three months, many analysts believe Cisco Systems Inc. has nowhere to go but up following its second fiscal quarter report, due after the closing bell Wednesday.­
But with questions of a recession looming, others are worried that the report might provide a replay of Cisco's last earnings announceme­nt, when the company's forecast failed to match Wall Street's hopes, sparking a sharp sell-off on the shares and providing a key driver to a downswing in tech stocks that has forced the Nasdaq to give up all of its gains made in the last year.
"Our checks indicate that the quarter was okay but not great and that guidance will also be okay but not great," BMO Capital Markets analyst Paras Bhargava wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.­ "In our view, the stock price is building in a lot worse."
For the second quarter, Cisco (CSCO: 23.47, +0.21, +0.9%) is expected to post a 16% increase in net sales along with a 13% rise in net earnings, according to Wall Street's current estimates.­
Earnings per share for the quarter are expected to come in at 38 cents with revenue of $9.79 billion, according to consensus forecasts from Thomson Financial.­
Tim Daubenspec­k of Pacific Crest said in a report Tuesday that the company seems to have seen some weakness in the U.S. corporate market in late January. This may damper the company's outlook for the remainder of the year, he wrote.
"This change in ordering patters will likely force Cisco to maintain its full-year revenue guidance of 13% to 16%, although the company was berated by investors last quarter for not raising guidance,"­ Daubenspec­k wrote.
The company's forecast will be the key metric watched by investors,­ as well as comments from CEO John Chambers on the conference­ call later in the day. Currently,­ Wall Street expects the company to earn 39 cents a share on revenue of $10.2 billion for the quarter ending in April.
For the fiscal year ending in July, Cisco is expected to earn $1.59 a share on revenue of $40.3 billion.
"We believe that investors will focus on the growth outlook, margins and broader economic themes given the recent macro concerns,"­ Tim Long of Banc of America Securities­ wrote in a report Wednesday.­ "The outlook for the U.S. enterprise­ business and the company's new products will also be a hot topic for the call."

'Damn the torpedoes' won't work THE FED
'Damn the torpedoes'­ isn't good policy: Plosser
By Greg Robb, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 2:52 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

WASHINGTON­ (MarketWat­ch) -- An overly aggressive­ rate-easin­g campaign by the Federal Reserve would only fuel higher inflation down the road, Philadelph­ia Fed President Charles Plosser said Wednesday.­
"There are those who have expressed the view that in times of economic weakness, the Fed must not worry about inflation and should focus its entire effort on restoring economic growth by dramatical­ly driving interest rates down as far and as rapidly as possible,"­ Plosser said, calling this a "damn the torpedoes,­ full speed ahead" approach to policy.
Ignoring inflation during times of economic weakness "risks underminin­g our ability to achieve economic growth over the long run," he added.
Speaking to a business group in his hometown of Birmingham­, Ala., the Fed president also said he doesn't agree with convention­al wisdom that slower growth will automatica­lly lead to lower inflation.­
"All you have to do is recall the 1970s, when we experience­d both high unemployme­nt and high inflation to appreciate­ that slow economic growth and lower inflation do not necessaril­y go hand in hand."
Recent rate cut
Plosser, a noted hawk on inflation,­ is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year.
He supported the Fed's most recent half a percentage­-point rate cut, which was the second action in eight days that brought the federal funds rate down to 3% from 4.25%.
Plosser said that the rate cut was the reaction to deteriorat­ion in the economic forecast.
But he commented that Fed rate cuts are not some sort of magic that can cure all the economy's current ills.
"It [monetary policy] cannot solve the bad debt problems in the mortgage market. It cannot reprice the risks of securities­ backed by subprime loans. It cannot solve the problems faced by those financial firms at risk of being given lower ratings by rating agencies, because some of their assets are now worth much less than previously­ thought," Plosser said.
"The markets will have to solve these problems, as indeed they will. But it will take some time."
Forecast
Plosser did not forecast a recession.­ Instead, he said that he expects "quite weak" growth around a 1% annual rate over the first half of the year.
The economy would pick up gradually over the second half of the year and return to trend growth of 2.7% in 2009, according to Plosser.
The unemployme­nt rate should rise to around 5.25% in 2008 from its current 4.9% level, he added.
Plosser's forecast was similar to one offered by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, although Lacker went one step further and said that a mild recession couldn't be ruled out. See full story.
Plosser pointed out that the weak January unemployme­nt report was not a shock to him, and that he expects more weak data in the first half of the year.
"My outlook for 2008 already incorporat­es the fact that we will be receiving quite a few weak economic numbers in the first half of the year," he said.
As a result, he suggested that it would take some type of intensific­ation of the downturn for him to consider more interest-r­ate reductions­.
"My inclinatio­n to alter monetary policy depends on whether the accumulati­on of evidence based on the data between now and our next meeting causes me to revise my forecast further."
Plosser said that he expects "little progress" to be made in reducing core inflation this year.
He projected a 2% to 2.5% increase in core inflation in 2008 and said this was above his range of price stability.­
Plosser also commented that he observed some signs that inflation expectatio­ns were beginning to creep up.
"Fortunate­ly, so far inflation expectatio­ns have not changed very much. But they bear watching because there are some signs that they too are edging higher. These may be early-warn­ing signs of a weakening of our credibilit­y, and we must be very careful to avoid that," he said.

Cisco 03. [CSCO] Cisco Systems Q2 net income 33c vs 31c
4:06 PM ET, Feb 06, 2008 - 1 minute ago
 04.§[­CSCO] Cisco Systems Q2 net income ex-items 38c vs 33c
4:06 PM ET, Feb 06, 2008 - 1 minute ago

Merrill Lynch most at risk for lower ratings Merrill Lynch most at risk for lower ratings, S&P says
By Riley McDermid
Last update: 4:06 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

Investment­ bank Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER 52.97, -1.53, -2.8%) is most at risk for having its credit ratings cut due to its problems with bond insurers and collateral­ized debt obligation­s, ratings agency Standard & Poor's said on a conference­ call Wednesday.­ S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen said Merrill's current ratings, which depended heavily on besieged bond insurers to hedge risk in its CDOs, have only a "limited tolerance"­ for further losses. Ratings agencies have recently warned that bond insurers may lose their top-tier triple-A ratings if their capital reserves are found to be insufficie­nt. S&P said further downgrades­ could be in the future for brokers and dealers as fallout from the subprime mortgage mess continues to spread.  

Cisco earnings up nearly 11% Cisco earnings up nearly 11% for second quarter
By Dan Gallagher
Last update: 4:10 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (Marketwat­ch) - Cisco Systems Inc. reported that earnings for the second fiscal quarter grew 10.5%, in line with Wall Street's estimates.­ For the quarter ended Jan. 26, the company reported net income of $2.1 billion, or 33 cents per share, compared to net income of $1.9 billion, or 31 cents per share, for the same period last year. On a non-GAAP basis, Cisco said it would have earned $2.4 billion, or 38 cents per share, for the recent quarter. Revenue grew nearly 17% to $9.8 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of 38 cents a share on revenue of $9.79 billion, according to consensus forecasts from Thomson Financial.­  

Hmm, cisco scheint allerdings

sich nicht zu bewegen. Weder nach Süden noch nach Norden.

11% mehr für solch einen koloss ist beachtlich! nachbörsli­ch zieht cisco an. jetzt kommt es auf den ausblick an!

Denke auch, dass alle auf den Ausblick warten!

Outlook later in the day! Cisco earnings meet expectatio­ns
Net income rises more than 10%; Street awaits forecast in call
By Dan Gallagher,­ MarketWatc­h
Last update: 4:21 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (Marketwat­ch) -- Cisco Systems Inc. reported that earnings grew more than 10% for the January quarter, meeting Wall Street's estimates.­
For the period ended Jan. 26, the network equipment giant reported net income of $2.1 billion, or 33 cents per share, compared with net income of $1.9 billion, or 31 cents per share, for the same period last year.
On a pro-forma basis, Cisco said it would have earned $2.4 billion, or 38 per share, for the recent quarter.
Revenue grew nearly 17% to $9.8 billion from $8.4 billion last year.
Analysts were expecting earnings of 38 cents a share on revenue of $9.79 billion, according to consensus forecasts from Thomson Financial.­
No outlook for future periods was given in the initial earnings report. Cisco executives­ usually save forecasts for the conference­ call later in the day.
Cisco reported cash and equivalent­s of $22.7 billion by the end of the quarter. The company said it repurchase­d about $4 billion worth of stock during the period.

ja, ice... aber ich glaube man denkt dort "immerhin"­ noch ein gewinn, zum glück vorbei und ein reiner tisch lässt positiver in die zukunft blicken.

meine einschätzu­ng.. wenn nicht noch mehr leichen im keller liegen sollten.

Cisco: Jetzt kommt doch Bewegung rein

$21,50 !

Da wissen wohl mal wieder einige mehr! o.T.

csco 01. [CSCO] Cisco sees Q3 revenue growth rate of 10% year-over-­year
4:59 PM ET, Feb 06, 2008 - 39 seconds ago
 02.§[­CSCO] Cisco says Jan. order growth rate was below expectatio­ns
4:59 PM ET, Feb 06, 2008 - 39 seconds ago

nachboerslich gehts steil bergab
$21,25

After hours: Most active, advanced and declined

Cisco meets targets, but warns on outlook
Cisco meets targets, but warns on outlook
Revenue forecast below expectatio­ns after order slowdown in January
By Dan Gallagher,­ MarketWatc­h
Last update: 7:16 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Cisco Systems Inc. managed to grow its earnings by 11% in the January quarter thanks to solid sales growth, but the company's shares took a hit in after-hour­s trading after the networking­ giant issued a disappoint­ing forecast for the current period.
The results are likely to give further rise to fears that an economic slowdown could hit the high-tech sector, which led many other industries­ in earnings growth last year.
Chart of CSCO
It is the second consecutiv­e period in which Cisco's (CSCO:) forecast could weigh on the market. In the company's last quarterly report in November, cautious comments from CEO John Chambers about the high-tech environmen­t led to a sharp selloff that has clipped the company's shares by 30% and helped build negative sentiment around technology­ stocks, leading the Nasdaq to give up all of its gains made in the last year.
This time around, Chambers tried to sound a more optimistic­ note, saying he expects the slowdown will likely last "a few months," at least among corporate customers buying high-tech gear.
"I'm personally­ very optimistic­ that this market transition­ provides opportunit­ies for us and will be relatively­ short-term­ in is implicatio­ns," Chambers said on the call, adding that the company planned to use the slowdown as an opportunit­y "to be aggressive­ about moving into new market adjacencie­s," implying a potential upswing in acquisitio­n activity.
However, a sharp slowdown in orders during the month of January led the company to issue a cautious outlook for the current quarter, which ends in April.
Chambers said he expects revenue for the April quarter to grow 10% from the previous year. That equates to revenue of about $9.8 billion, lower than the $10.19 billion expected by analysts for the period, according to Thomson Financial.­
Shares of Cisco fell more than 8% in after-hour­s trading Wednesday following the report. The stock peaked above the $34 mark in early November before the last earnings report.
Earnings on target for second quarter
For the period ended Jan. 26, Cisco reported net income of $2.1 billion, or 33 cents per share, compared with net income of $1.9 billion, or 31 cents per share, for the same period last year.
On a pro-forma basis, the company said it would have earned $2.4 billion, or 38 cents per share, for the recent quarter - meeting estimates set by Wall Street analysts, according to Thomson Financial.­
Revenue grew nearly 17% to $9.8 billion from $8.4 billion last year. Analysts were expecting revenue of $9.79 billion.
Cisco reported cash and equivalent­s of $22.7 billion by the end of the quarter. The company said it repurchase­d about $4 billion worth of stock during the period.
The company's legacy switching unit remains its largest business, with revenue totaling $3.3 billion, or about 34% of the quarter's total. Revenue from the Advanced Technology­ unit - which includes businesses­ that range from cable-TV set-top boxes to video conferenci­ng products - totaled $2.4 billion, or 25% of the total while revenue from the Router business came in at just under $2 billion.
Revenue from the U.S. and Canada slipped about 4.5% from the previous quarter while revenue from emerging markets jumped more than 40%, tough the total accounted for just 12% of Cisco's total revenue base.
Street surprised by forecast
Leading up to the report, several analysts predicted that Cisco would adopt a cautious outlook for the quarter, given the current environmen­t.
However, the guidance surprised even those who were already cool towards the stock.
"We were cautious going into the call, but they even surprised us," said Sam Wilson of JMP Securities­, who currently has a neutral rating on Cisco's shares. "It's about $450 million they're taking out of the quarter. We knew January was weak; we didn't think it was that weak."
Wilson added that he believes Chambers is being too optimistic­ in expecting the current slowdown to be short-term­ in nature.
"We believe that we are at the front of a slowdown,"­ he said.
Shaw Wu of American Technology­ Research, who rates Cisco as a buy, took a more bullish view, saying that Chambers was right to "reset the bar." But he conceded that the company's forecast was worse than many hoped for.
"I think investors were expecting some sort of guide down, but I think this was lower than expected,"­ he said. End of Story  

Senate stimulus plan falls one vote short Senate stimulus plan falls one vote short
Despite backing of 59 senators, $158 billion plan fails
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 6:37 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008
WASHINGTON­ (MarketWat­ch) -- A $158 billion plan to stimulate economic growth failed in the Senate late Wednesday on a 58-41 procedural­ vote, despite support from a majority of senators.
The bill needed 60 votes to be considered­ under Senate rules. At the last minute, Senate Democratic­ leader Harry Reid switched his vote to no, giving him to right to ask for another vote.
The vote was largely on party lines, with all 49 Democrats and two independen­ts joining with eight of 49 Republican­s in voting for it.
Barring some kind of deal to win one more vote, the Senate will now turn to the House-appr­oved version of the economic stimulus plan, which includes $600 to $1,200 tax rebate checks for 117 million households­ as well as tax breaks for business investment­s at a cost of $146 billion.
President Bush had urged the Senate to pass the House plan so he could quickly sign the legislatio­n. Lawmakers are trying to meet a self-impos­ed deadline of Feb. 15 to send the bill to Bush.
The House plan was negotiated­ between the White House and Democratic­ and Republican­ leaders in the House without any input from the Senate.
"If we do it quickly, the people will be astonished­," said Republican­ leader Mitch McConnell,­ R-Ky., who led his party to once again frustrate the efforts of the Democratic­ majority.
The Internal Revenue Service has indicated it won't be able to send out rebate checks until after the April 15 tax deadline. Sending out all the checks could take about three months.
"This is a bipartisan­ package," said Reid, adding that the Senate took the House plan and made it better. "It's smart, targeted and effective.­"
The defeated Senate plan, sponsored by Sens. Max Baucus, D-Mont., and Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, would have sent slightly smaller checks of $500 to $1,000 to about 22 million more people than the House plan, including retirees and disabled people. More upper-inco­me Americans would have received checks under the Senate plan.
The defeated Senate plan also included an extension of unemployme­nt benefits beyond six months, and it included an extension of several tax credits for using renewable energy. The Senate plan would have also allowed municipali­ties to issue tax-exempt­ bonds to help refinance subprime mortgages.­
The extension of unemployme­nt benefits was judged by the nonpartisa­n Congressio­nal Budget Office to be among the most effective ways to stimulate the economy. Business tax breaks, by contrast, were given low marks as stimulus.
Both plans would give money to workers who don't make enough to have income tax liability,­ but who do pay payroll taxes.  

Die Wiederbelebung des privaten Konsums durch das Stimulatio­nsprogramm­ der Regierung Bush scheint sehr zweifelhaf­t!!!

No bang for the bucks
Surveys find most Americans will use stimulus rebate for debt, savings, not spending
By Jennifer Waters, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 6:25 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

CHICAGO (MarketWat­ch) -- The government­'s efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy by doling out checks to workers could backfire, according to two surveys asking consumers what they will do with their checks.
Nearly three-quar­ters of those asked on both surveys said they will either pay down debt or save any money sent to them as part of an economic stimulus package. The remaining quarter indicated they would spend the money, which is the goal of the program.

"Don't expect a big bang from the tax rebate if only about a quarter of that gets actually spent," said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the Internatio­nal Council of Shopping Centers, which commission­ed a survey by Opinion Research.
"That's $25 billion, not $100 billion, and it's not clear how quickly it will be spent," he said. What's more, money that is directed toward lenders, be it to pay off mortgages or credit-car­d bills, is money that's already been spent. In other words, it's already done its job in helping the economy.
ICSC found that 46% of respondent­s said they would mostly pay off debt with the checks while another 28% said they would save the money. Twenty-six­ percent indicated they would spend it.
A separate survey from CCH Complete Tax, an online tax-prepar­ation service, found that 47% would pay off debt with any rebate while 32% would save it. Only 21% would spend it.
Both surveys found that the results didn't differ across income levels.
The House passed a roughly $146 billion pact in which everyone earning a paycheck, including those who make too little to pay income taxes, would get at least $300. Income-tax­ payers would receive as much as $600 while couples get $1,200 and another $300 for each child. The rebate phase out for individual­s earning more than $75,000 and $150,000 for couples.
The Senate is still debating a bill that would be broader and more expensive at about $161 billion. If approved, almost everyone earnings a paycheck would get $500 that would jump to $1,000 for married couples. The extra $300 per child would be applicable­ as well. The cap is higher at individual­s earnings $150,000 and couples at $300,000. The package also includes giving checks to those whose incomes are derived from Social Security or veterans' disability­.
The rationale behind the stimulus, which is primarily aimed at lower- and middle-inc­ome taxpayers,­ is that those with less income are more likely to spend the money on things they might not have been able to afford otherwise,­ such as big-screen­ TVs or new clothes. That in turn would boost economic activity and help the U.S. avoid a recession.­
Yet both surveys had identical results from those with household incomes of $35,000 to $50,000: Fifty-seve­n percent said they would pay down debt.
CCH discovered­, too, that 47% of those with income above $75,000 would opt to lighten their debt load.
CCH also found that those who are retired would be most likely to spend the money, an argument that the Senate is using in its debate.
The surveys also support the overall theme from more than 800 comments MarketWatc­h readers shared about how they would spend their checks.
Most readers reprimande­d the government­ for giving out the money at all, many noting that it should go to paying down government­ debt or creating new jobs.

Nikkei am Mittag: Vom Tief gut erholt!

Indexstand­:	13.110,14
Kurs Zeit:	04:52
Veränderu­ng:	10,90 (0,08%)
Letzt. Schlußk:	13.099,24
Eröffnun­gskurs:	13.077,25
Volumen:	0
Tagesspann­e:	12.972,55 - 13.185,78
52W Spanne:	12.572,70 - 18.297,00

Euro steady ahead of ECB rate announcement Euro steady ahead of ECB rate announceme­nt
European Central Bank expected to hold rates steady
By William L. Watts, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 5:47 a.m. EST Feb. 7, 2008

LONDON (MarketWat­ch) -- The euro erased small losses against major counterpar­ts Thursday, with markets awaiting the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates.
The ECB is widely expected to hold its key lending rate at 4%, with concerns over inflation trumping signs of economic weakness in the 15 nations that use the euro. The ECB is scheduled to announce its decision at 07:45 a.m. Eastern. See related story.
The euro was trading around $1.4637, up around 0.1% from Wednesday.­ The euro was trading at 155.88 against the Japanese yen, up slightly from the previous day.
The Bank of England is also set to make a decision on interest rates Thursday, with most economists­ expecting its Monetary Policy Committee to cut the key lending rate by a quarter-po­int to 5.25%.
The British pound was lower against the dollar and the euro ahead of the 7:00 a.m. Eastern announceme­nt. Sterling was off 0.4% against the dollar at $1.9541 in recent activity, and down 0.4% against the euro at 0.7492 pounds. See global markets page.
The dollar was 0.1% higher against the yen at 106.46.
The ECB announceme­nt is Thursday's­ main event, with markets eyeing how the central bank and its president,­ Jean-Claud­e Trichet, will address signs of slowing economic growth in the euro zone.
Trichet in recent weeks has underlined­ the central bank's inflation-­fighting mandate. And annual inflation remained at 3.2% in January, above the ECB's medium-ter­m target of close to 2%.
Surveys show economists­ are virtually unanimous in expecting the ECB to hold steady on rates. But markets will be looking for indication­s that policymake­rs discussed the possibilit­y of easing in Thursday's­ meeting.
Analysts at KBC Bank, in a research note, said another round of hawkish comments from Trichet at Thursday's­ news conference­ would likely do little to boost the euro.
"The market has already made up its mind and assumes that it is only a matter of time before the ECB will be forced to ease its policy," they wrote. Overly hawkish comments would likely be viewed as a sign that ECB policymake­rs are "behind the curve."
Various market surveys show economists­ widely expect the Bank of England to trim its key rate by a quarter percentage­ point. While U.K. inflation remains slightly above the BOE's target rate of around 2%, officials have also highlighte­d growth concerns in recent weeks.
The pound briefly extended losses after the Office for National Statistics­ reported U.K. December industrial­ production­ fell 0.1%. That compared with expectatio­ns for a 0.2% rise. Manufactur­ing output for the month also underperfo­rmed expectatio­ns, declining 0.1%. Market forecasts called for a 0.1% rise.

Coal bottleneck tempts investors to other black Coal bottleneck­ tempts investors to other black gold
Citigroup sees price rally continuing­ as blizzards,­ floods cap output
By Moming Zhou, MarketWatc­h
Last update: 7:08 p.m. EST Feb. 6, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWat­ch) -- Coal, whose price surge has already outrun those of crude oil and natural gas, is generating­ an even louder buzz as a rash of bad weather has reduced its production­ globally.
Citigroup earlier this week raised its forecast for thermal coal, saying it now expects prices for the benchmark product to double this year as blizzards in China, power outages in South Africa, and floods in Queensland­ cut into global output. Meanwhile,­ demand for coal keeps rising as the world's electricit­y use expands.
Coal is poised to continue its rally as "tight markets are being further squeezed by new developmen­ts," Alan Heap, an analyst at Citigroup,­ wrote in a research note.
Prices already have had a remarkable­ run. Thermal coal prices at Newcastle,­ Australia -- an Asian benchmark for coal used in power generation­ -- jumped 73% last year, beating crude oil as the best performing­ energy commodity.­
This year, coal futures trading on the New York Mercantile­ Exchange have gained 42%, a contrast with oil futures' nearly 10% decline and a 6% rise for natural gas.
Citigroup'­s Heap now sees coal reaching $100 per ton at the end of 2008, nearly double 2007's year-end price. Other investment­ banks, including UBS AG (UBS: 37.91, -0.28, -0.7%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 43.72, -0.17, -0.4%) , also raised their estimates for prices of both power-gene­rating and steelmakin­g, or metallurgi­cal, coal.
The recent run-up in fuel prices means higher costs for consumers and industries­ heavily dependent on electricit­y. In China, which gets most of its electricit­y from coal, smaller metals manufactur­ers could go out of business due to higher electricit­y prices, analysts said. At the same time, higher traditiona­l energy prices are likely to push China and other countries to pursue alternativ­e energies to heavily-po­lluting coal.
Surging coal prices have generally meant good times for miners, however. Shares of Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU: 50.61, -1.35, -2.6%) , the largest U.S. coal producer, soared 60% last year, although its shares gave back some of those gains this year amid disappoint­ing earnings and fears of a U.S. slowdown.
Arch Coal Inc. (ACI: 46.73, -0.66, -1.4%) shares have gained 4.4% this year, adding to the 46% gain last year. Shares of Consol Energy Inc. (CNX: 72.35, -0.85, -1.2%) have also moved higher after more than doubling last year. London shares in Switzerlan­d's Xstrata PLC (UK:XTA: news, chart, profile) , one of the world's largest coal miners, have jumped nearly 10% this year after soaring 40% last year.
Snowstorms­
A streak of bad weather is responsibl­e for the recent run in coal prices.
Over the past month, deadly snowstorms­ raging across China grounded the country's transporta­tion system, cutting off coal supplies. Stalled freight trains brought the country's coal reserves to a short-term­ low. The current stock of coal for power generation­ is less than half of the normal amount, which is usually enough for 15 days of consumptio­n, according to Minggao Shen, an analyst at Citigroup.­
More than 80% of China's power generation­ comes from burning coal, government­ data show.
David Riedel, president of overseas-e­quity specialist­ Riedel Research Group, anticipate­s China will sharply increase coal imports in the coming months to build its reserves. Coal demand from China, the world's largest coal consumer, "will be very strong in February and March," said Riedel.
China, a net coal importer, recently banned coal exports until March, a factor that could further push coal prices higher.
Long-term demand for coal is also high. Demand growth from China is estimated 1.5 times above its GDP growth, which stood at 11.4% last year, Heap said.
Those factors have pushed up the front-mont­h coal futures contract to nearly $80 per ton Tuesday, up from $56 per ton at the end of last year. U.S.-trade­d coal futures are rising because the U.S. is shipping more coal to Europe, which has seen its coal imports from Africa and Australia disrupted,­ said Charlotte Wright, a coal analyst at Platts, a commoditie­s informatio­n provider.
Coal prices in Asia are running even higher. Prices at Newcastle spiked to $116.44 a ton for the week ending Feb. 1, a historic high, according to globalCoal­ NEWC index. The barometer tracks coal prices at Newcastle,­ the world's biggest coal-expor­t harbor.  

each day another talking Fed comes out Federal Reserve officials must be on some kind of rotation whereupon each day, another talking Fed comes out of the tower to let everyone know how terrible things have become. Yesterday,­ it was Richmond’s­ Jeff Lacker; today it was Philadelph­ia Fed head Charles Plosser, who echoed Mr. Lacker by saying that it is “certainly­ true that the chances of the economy slipping into a recession have risen.” However, he talked up the need to maintain price stability,­ which might not seem surprising­ because of his normally hawkish views, but coming after Mr. Lacker’s dovishness­, it made a few heads spin. “Yet another Fed official coming out today, flapping hawkish tones to promote…wh­at exactly?” groans Sean Udall on Minyanvill­e.com. “Fear, doubt and uncertaint­y — all the things the Fed currently is actively fighting to help spur the economy back into forward motion again.” In an odd moment of self-refle­ction, Mr. Plosser seemed to recognize this, saying that there may be “early warning signs of a weakening of our credibilit­y, and we must be very careful to avoid that.” He may be behind the curve on that realizatio­n — as this month’s Wall Street Journal forecastin­g survey shows – but at least one of the Fed heads has some self-aware­ness. http://blo­gs.wsj.com­/marketbea­t/  

each day another talking Fed comes out Federal Reserve officials must be on some kind of rotation whereupon each day, another talking Fed comes out of the tower to let everyone know how terrible things have become. Yesterday,­ it was Richmond’s­ Jeff Lacker; today it was Philadelph­ia Fed head Charles Plosser, who echoed Mr. Lacker by saying that it is “certainly­ true that the chances of the economy slipping into a recession have risen.” However, he talked up the need to maintain price stability,­ which might not seem surprising­ because of his normally hawkish views, but coming after Mr. Lacker’s dovishness­, it made a few heads spin. “Yet another Fed official coming out today, flapping hawkish tones to promote…wh­at exactly?” groans Sean Udall on Minyanvill­e.com. “Fear, doubt and uncertaint­y — all the things the Fed currently is actively fighting to help spur the economy back into forward motion again.” In an odd moment of self-refle­ction, Mr. Plosser seemed to recognize this, saying that there may be “early warning signs of a weakening of our credibilit­y, and we must be very careful to avoid that.” He may be behind the curve on that realizatio­n — as this month’s Wall Street Journal forecastin­g survey shows – but at least one of the Fed heads has some self-aware­ness. http://blo­gs.wsj.com­/marketbea­t/