Mo, 26. Februar 2024, 19:17 Uhr

DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate AG


Original-Research: DEMIRE AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD

24.11.23 09:21


Original-Research: DEMIRE AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu DEMIRE AG

Unternehmen: DEMIRE AG


Anlass der Studie: Update

Empfehlung: HOLD

seit: 24.11.2023

Kursziel: EUR 1,20

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Another guidance adjustment following lack of disposals; chg.

As already anticipated in our recent earnings review, DEMIRE yesterday

updated its FY guidance for a second time this year as management now

expects a lower number of property disposals than what was planned at the

beginning of the year. As this consequently results in a larger asset base,

rental income as well as FFO are now expected to come in higher.

Management now guides for rental income of EUR 78-80m (vs EUR 74.5-76.5m

before; eNuW old: EUR 77.9m) and FFO of EUR 35-37m (vs EUR 33-35m before; eNuW

old: EUR 34m). After the company already adjusted its outlook in July

following the withdrawal of the LogPark buyer, this has been the second

guidance update this year. Initially, management targeted a rental income

range of EUR 71-73m and FFO of EUR 30-32m. According to our estimates, this

would have required disposals to the tune of > EUR 300m throughout the year

vs EUR 69m as of Q3.

The lower sales volume is seen to be mainly attributable to the de facto

standstill on the real estate transaction market, as buyers do have little

to none acting pressure due to the lack of competition. Still, management

remains confident that the disposal of the LogPark will still be signed

this year, although a closing and thus the related cash inflow (eNuW: EUR

110m gross; book value of EUR 121m) will likely not take place before mid Q1.

While the delayed disposals are causing higher rental income and thus cash

flows on the one hand, it also means that significant cash inflows, which

would have been vital to at least partly release some of the refinancing

pressure, are not available.

That said and despite the recent rating downgrade by Moody's, we remain

confident that the company will announce a solution on the refinancing

issue in the course of H1'24, as the dialogue with the holders of the

corporate bond (EUR 499m due in 10/24) intensified in recent weeks. In our

view, a prolongation at either an increased coupon or at a higher nominal

value appears as the most likely option. To further shore up liquidity, we

expect at least parts of the EUR 266m worth of LOIs to materialize in the

first quarters of 2024e.

As visibility remains low regarding the outcome of the refinancing process,

we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged PT of EUR 1.20 based

on NAV and DDM.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

Kontakt für Rückfragen

NuWays AG - Equity Research




Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany


Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.


-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.

Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung

oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.


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